Trade Trumbo to the Dodgers for Kemp, Prospects and Cash

[bpilktree67]

The luxury tax is different then team actual payroll though.  As it takes the contract and splits it in equal amounts.  That keepe team from just backloading a contract or front loading it.  If you get 64 million and the salary is 12, 12, 20, 20.  Luxury tax is just 16 million each year.

[theocean]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good point.  It's probably Nats or nothing.   We are in a place where we are far away from making the playoffs, but yet have no flexibility. 

I think the O's ceiling is limited until they can finally figure out how to develop a homegrown front-of-the-rotation starter. 

Pitchers seem to flourish as soon as they leave here. The O's have to be doing something wrong.

[hoosiers]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We need to find some kind of creative move to get some SP.  With the price of relievers, is O'day looking like that bad of a contract now?  Maybe he's only overpaid by 2-3 million. 

 

What we really need now is a commitment to a full rebuild with an eye to 2020 than a desire to find some SP now.

If you think Alex Verdugo is going to be a 2 WAR producer each year, then you deal for Kemp and DFA him and eat the $30M-$40M and make that up with 2 WAR production while AV is making the league minimum.  If AV projects to produce more than that, then the LAD might want something back.  It is probably easier to ask for Diaz and a reliever who has value than Verdugo. 

The LAD goal is to get under the salary cap and they will overpay to get there, but you have to give them what they want instead of sending back Trumbo.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good point.  It's probably Nats or nothing.   We are in a place where we are far away from making the playoffs, but yet have no flexibility. 

I'm thinking maybe LA, NY, Chicago.

[paulcoates]

Can MLB just implement a salary cap already and level the playing field?

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Matt Kemp is owed 43.5M over the next two year but the Dodgers and Padres, from prior trades, are already picking up 12M of that.    So essentially, whatever team trades for him owes him 31.5M over two years.   Trumbo is owed 26M over the next two yeas.    If you trade Trumbo fo Kemp the Dodgers save about 3M this year and 2M next year.    The Dodgers might do it but you ain't getting any prospect back.

What there owed does not matter towards going to luxury tax.  The contract is divided in equal parts.  Kemp is 20 million towards luxury tax.  Trumbo is just 12.5.  

 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm thinking maybe LA, NY, Chicago.

Good thoughts.  O'day is owed 2/18 million.  In this market that isn't that overpaid.  I think the market as made him a little movable. 

Then again I have no idea what are budget is.  What's the point in clearing money anyway when no FA SP wants to come here. 

[weams]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

They only really cared about going over it this year.   I think if you go over it 3 years in a row you get a 50% tax on whatever you go over it the next year.   Staying under it this year means they only have to pay a 20% surcharge next year when Harper and Machado are free agents.    I think that's right but anyone feel free to correct me.   As for what kind of prospect we could get for saving the Dodgers 5M, I'd say not much.   Certainly not a top ten guy.  

That is correct. 

Quote

Under the 2016 CBA, first time offenders would pay a fee of 20% on the dollar, second time offenders would pay a 30% on the dollar, and third or subsequent time offenders would have to pay 50% on the dollar (These offenses must be in consecutive years for these percentages. If a team falls below the threshold one year the penalty re-sets the next year to the "first offense") .^[4]

 

 

[pastorfan]

42 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Good analysis.  I'm just wondering if the Dodgers would get luxury tax savings.  Not knowing what the rules are - If the Dodgers keep Kemp this year and next - is it the 43.5M (over 2 years) that counts against their cap, or is it the 31.5M?  If it's the 43.5M, would they save another chunk o money by trading him?  

Yes, over 40m is what Kemp is costing them toward the cap. So if they traded him for Trumbo it could save them quite a bit depending on how much we would pay. I don't think this is a realistic deal, unless we went all in with a rebuild.

[Camden_yardbird]

There is a 90% penalty in there somewhere as well.

I like the idea.  I don't think you need to be a big market team to be opportunistic like this and it's definitely something the Orioles should be exploring.

[interloper]

Say it with me now: "TOO CREATIVE FOR THE O'S"

[Lucky_13]

The team doesn't need another aging DH disguised as an outfielder. They need to get younger. I doubt the dodgers would give up any real prospects for 5 million in savings. 

 

[interloper]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Of course.  We do the opposite.  Trade draft picks to save 2-5M.   Ryan Webb:

Traded by the Baltimore Orioles with Brian Ward (minors) and 2015 competitive balance round B pick to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Chris O'Brien (minors) and Ben Rowen    to get out from under Webb's huge 2.7M contract before the 2015 season.

 

Yeah that one was particularly ridiculous. 

Actually, it seems the Orioles can be incredibly creative when they want to be, it's just always for the wrong reasons.

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

The Dodgers have had no takers for Kemp and are trying to add a prospect or two to get someone to bite.  So, give them Trumbo, get back two prospects and cash to make up the difference.  Either play Kemp at DH or just cut him loose.

What prospects would it take to make that happen?  How much cash would we need to get back?  Given the number of trades (3) of Kemp's contract that have already occurred, I have no idea how much a new team would owe him in the first place.

Trumbo wouldn't work. No DH in the Senior Circuit. I wish the FO could trade Trumbo though.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, theocean said:

I think the O's ceiling is limited until they can finally figure out how to develop a homegrown front-of-the-rotation starter. 

Pitchers seem to flourish as soon as they leave here. The O's have to be doing something wrong.

They sure must be.