Trade Trumbo to the Dodgers for Kemp, Prospects and Cash

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think there are better ways than taking on a 31.5M dead contract to get a good, not great, prospect.     

Then ask for a better prospect ....

[Redskins Rick]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There are what, 30 teams in baseball?   The Dodgers were only able to move their bad contracts for another bad contract.  If the Dodgers were willing to offer enough prospects to entice another team to take bad contracts it would have been done already.  As it is now reported, the Dodgers can find no takers for Kemp.

Clearly, if 29 teams don't bite, the Dodgers must not be willing to offer the type of prospect deal good enough to get any ML team take on Kemps contract.  A player who has some value as a DH.

Very few of these type of deals happen although I do recall the Braves taking back bad contracts from the Dodgers before.  That might be a good gauge as what it would take.

Didnt they include draft picks, which was the Braves intent, to try and rebuild for long term with youth movement.

[wildbillhiccup]

Trading Trumbo to the Mets makes more sense. They're so desperate for a short term stop gap at 1b they're considering signing Adrian Gonzalez!

[wildbillhiccup]

43 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

 

Just now, RZNJ said:

Gonzalez will cost peanuts.  Trumbo 2/26.    

...but in theory he's A LOT better. Adrian Gonzalez is cooked. 

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

...but in theory he's A LOT better. Adrian Gonzalez is cooked. 

Seriously though, how in the world did the Orioles let Trumbo hold them hostage for a three year deal? They shouldn't have resigned him at all, but if they insisted on doing so they should have drawn a line in teh sand at 2 years. Just a bad bad decision and it was on Duquette's watch, so you can't fully blame Angelos. 

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here's a good example.   The D-Backs traded Bronson Arroyo who was injured at the time and Touki Toussaint for a Phil Gosselin of the Braves.    Arroyo was owed 9.5M and a 4.5M buyout for the next year.   So, for taking back 14M in contracts, the Braves got a good, not great prospect, who had a really good arm but had so so results in low A ball.   He slotted in as the Braves #5 prospect after the trade.     Touissant did not even make Baseball America's 2017 mid season top 100.   So essentially, the Braves paid 14M for a good prospect but hardly a high end one.     Could the Orioles get a better prospect by absorbing all 31M of Matt Kemp's contract.   Sure, but the chances of the Dodges making it worth their while are slim.   It would have to be one hell of a package.

Of course, the Orioles would never make a move like this but since we are talking about things they would never do:

If you could absorb 31M to your payroll over two years just to get a prospect or two, wouldn't you just be better off using that 31M to sign international free agents, the regular draft, and a Cuban or two.     

They also did this:

Quote

The Shelby Miller-to-Arizona trade understandably receives the most attention among one-sided deals in the Braves’ favor. They got now-Gold Glove center fielder Ender Inciarte and former No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson in that trade for a pitcher (Miller) who has struggled to a 5-14 record and 5.78 ERA in 24 MLB starts over two seasons for Arizona.

 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe.  Probably.   But he had a lot of injuries last year and his OPS was something like .784 the year before.    The Mets are cheap.   Trumbo had a sup .700 OPS last year.   I doubt they want to gamble that he rebounds playing half his games in Citi field as opposed to Camden Yards.

Mets are taking with the Pirates for McCutchen

[wildbillhiccup]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe.  Probably.   But he had a lot of injuries last year and his OPS was something like .784 the year before.    The Mets are cheap.   Trumbo had a sup .700 OPS last year.   I doubt they want to gamble that he rebounds playing half his games in Citi field as opposed to Camden Yards.

Agreed. For some reason I thought he was only under contract for ONE more year. The two years is a deal breaker. Pretty much makes him close to untradeable. Such a bad contract / signing decision with potential DHs like Mancini / Sisco in the wings...

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Big difference between McCutchen and Trumbo, no?   One is signed for 1 year and coming off a big bounce back year?    The other is signed for 2/26 and coming off of a bad year.    Anyway, talk is cheap.   The Orioles talk about everyone.

I think most GMs talk to most other GMs about everybody on their rosters. Its what they do.

[wildbillhiccup]

11 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think most GMs talk to most other GMs about everybody on their rosters. Its what they do.

I honestly don't think Duquette does this. I think he expects everyone to come to him. I have nothing to back this up, it's just a hunch based on his personality and their relative inactivity each offseason he's been steering the ship. 

[Redskins Rick]

41 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I honestly don't think Duquette does this. I think he expects everyone to come to him. I have nothing to back this up, it's just a hunch based on his personality and their relative inactivity each offseason he's been steering the ship. 

I suspect you are wrong, and that your dislike of the man is coming into play.

but just my own opinion

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

There are what, 30 teams in baseball?   The Dodgers were only able to move their bad contracts for another bad contract.  If the Dodgers were willing to offer enough prospects to entice another team to take bad contracts it would have been done already.  As it is now reported, the Dodgers can find no takers for Kemp.

Clearly, if 29 teams don't bite, the Dodgers must not be willing to offer the type of prospect deal good enough to get any ML team take on Kemps contract.  A player who has some value as a DH.

Very few of these type of deals happen although I do recall the Braves taking back bad contracts from the Dodgers before.  That might be a good gauge as what it would take.

I understand this is a long shot trade without much precedent, but I would suggest the following caveats:

   - most teams are trying to win in 2018.  There are very few teams who are punting next season right now - so I would not expect many teams to be able to absorb a $15M loss for a prospect - especially one that would not be major league ready - when building their 2018 team.  

   - of the teams that might punt the 2018 season (such as the Marlins), I don't think many have the payroll capacity to take on the $ 

   - besides the $30+M in savings for Kemp's salary, the savings the Dodgers might enjoy for getting under the salary cap (as the NYY are trying to do) could be in the tens of millions of $.  LAD will need big $ for Kershaw and maybe one top FA next offseason and could blow past the salary cap threshold by $30M-$50M.  The LAD could save $9M-$15M in salary cap taxes alone in just one year if they can get under the threshold.  The savings over a couple years could be $20M or so or more.

   - the international market is an odd place to suggest spending the incremental $ instead of obtaining the prospect equivalent from the LAD system given the taxes paid on international spending above allotted $ - which is a lot less than $15M.  You can try to obtain a prospect or prospects from the LAD valued at $30M or international prospects valued at $30M.  Theoretically, the prospect haul should be the same, but the taxes on international spend above allotted levels should make one prefer to work something out with the LAD.

   - it's kind of comical to think the Os part ways with Matusz to save about $3M and gave away a high draft pick with BMat.  We are talking about providing about 10X the payroll relief with AGon.  Again, interested to hear what the LAD are offering.

Anyway, I thought this could be an interesting dialog, and I have interest in understanding how the LAD resolve this as the LAD should have strong will to move Gonzalez and save $ on the salary cap taxes.  I have mentioned the Os because our owner may have been ready to ramp up payroll back into the $150M+ range to compete this year.  If we go into rebuild mode, we would certainly have the financial capacity to work something out with LAD.  

[mdbdotcom]

3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

...

Anyway, I thought this could be an interesting dialog, and I have interest in understanding how the LAD resolve this as the LAD should have strong will to move Gonzalez and save $ on the salary cap taxes.  I have mentioned the Os because our owner may have been ready to ramp up payroll back into the $150M+ range to compete this year.  If we go into rebuild mode, we would certainly have the financial capacity to work something out with LAD.  

Maybe you missed it. The Dodgers traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Braves and he has been released. 

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Maybe you missed it. The Dodgers traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Braves and he has been released. 

I meant Kemp.  Thanks for pointing out what was incorrect.

[hoosiers]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It was my understanding that this deal (bad contracts to Atlanta for Kemp) got LA under the cap for 2018.   Again, to my understanding, they pay no luxury tax in 2018 after paying one over the last 3-4 years.    That resets their penalty if and when they go over in 2019.    I think they have every intention of going over the cap in 2019 but now they'll only have to pay a 20% tax instead of a 50% tax.    I believe all of the contracts that went back to Atlanta expired this year which saved them a lot for 2018.    I do not think they are in any kind of desperate straits to be under in 2019 as even their president joked about the FA class available next year and how this trade would allow them to be major players in it.

You are correct that the trade puts the LAD under the cap for 2018 - barring something unusual in arbitration.  I would have thought they would try to create more cap space by dealing Kemp to allow them more flexibility in 2018.  They will go into the season with about $15M in space and might have cheap guys in Buehler and Verdugo to call up if something happens in the OF or to a SP.  It's not a large amount of cap space if they need to make a major acquisition or two at the deadline.