Even Money Wager on 2018 Tillman

[tropicos]

10 hours ago, tntoriole said:

He won’t be as bad as 2017 because he will be DFAd before he gets to be as bad as he was in 2017.

Exactly.

[esmd]

I'd go with 2017 just because it's more recent, and I need to see evidence that he's healthy and back to his old self.  But I can certainly see that he could bounce back if the reports we're getting are accurate.  We shall see.

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Bursitis?  We still don't know the whole story.  He sucked for a whole year and showed not one sign of coming around. 2017. 

It's a joke if he's the #4 starter heading into ST.  This team is a couple injuries away from being a 96+ loss team.  

A huge gamble on Tillmans shoulder.  

Geeze, dont be such a debby downer, geeze, 96 losses.

 

[bobmc]

12 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That’s where my money would go. Somewhere in between. For $3million and our Opening Day SP, I’ll take it. 

FTFY

 

I kid but am so very hopeful for a resurgent Tilly!

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Geeze, dont be such a debby downer, geeze, 96 losses.

 

If Bundy and/or Gausman goes down?

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

If Bundy and/or Gausman goes down?

Next man up.

Tilly went down, and Ubaldo actually pitched well.

There are young arms here too. Cortes and Mesa.

Of course any pitcher is one pitch away from spending time on the DL.

[Nite]

I'm going to do what I do every year. Blindly believe that the O's have a legit shot at winning the World Series just to have my heart broken come July.

With that I'm going 2016 version, O's MVP, a few Cy Young votes, comeback player of the year, and Game 1 starter this fall. Please keep in mind it's February 22nd and I just dug all of my O's gear out... I'm fully aware what I'll be feeling in July.

[NCRaven]

I'm not in Sarasota watching Tillman pitch.  I have to have some faith in the staff that have been watching him to say they have hope.  So, I'm expecting/hoping for something near his career averages.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Bursitis?  We still don't know the whole story.  He sucked for a whole year and showed not one sign of coming around. 2017. 

It's a joke if he's the #4 starter heading into ST.  This team is a couple injuries away from being a 96+ loss team.  

A huge gamble on Tillmans shoulder.  

It’s only a huge gamble if we don’t sign a better starter.    I’d be fine with him slotted for the 5th starter.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I'm losing my $100 and going with 2015 Tillman. And I hope for between 2015 and 2016 Tillman. 

But it's so hard to know until we can see what his delivery and velocity are like. I know Roch took some vid yesterday. Hopefully we can get more soon. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Just now, Frobby said:

It’s only a huge gamble if we don’t sign a better starter.    I’d be fine with him slotted for the 5th starter.

What is your expectation for a better starter? You think we are angling for Lynn or Cobb to fall into our lap? Obviously Arrieta is out of the question (although I wish he wasn't, not my $$)

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

What is your expectation for a better starter? You think we are angling for Lynn or Cobb to fall into our lap? Obviously Arrieta is out of the question (although I wish he wasn't, not my $$)

I don’t have any expectation at this point.    Only hopes and dreams.    I do think we might acquire someone who is between Cashner and Tillman on the risk continuum, but with a lower ceiling (e.g., Scott Feldman).     Overall I’m underwhelmed with how we’ve addressed our starting pitching issues, but still crossing my fingers and hoping it all works out.  

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t have any expectation at this point.    Only hopes and dreams.    I do think we might acquire someone who is between Cashner and Tillman on the risk continuum, but with a lower ceiling (e.g., Scott Feldman).     Overall I’m underwhelmed with how we’ve addressed our starting pitching issues, but still crossing my fingers and hoping it all works out.  

A Scott Feldman type certainly allows for the wheels to not fall off (low ceiling like you said though).

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hey!  I'll try to be optimistic but on paper, things don't look so good.  You need a lot of things, that shouldn't be expected, to go right, just to be an 85 win team.   On paper, I think this is a sub .500 team and if a few things go wrong it could be a lot worse.   You have a rotation that consists of an ace who completed his first full season last year and was really mediocre on normal rest and was basically shut down at the end of the season when he wore down.   Gausman is probably the best bet to both pitch 180-200 innings and be decent.   The peripherals on Cashman suggest a big regression from what he did last season.   Tillman was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year and the only excuse from the team is that he didn't have his normal offseason routine.   Meanwhile, he pitched into August and showed no signs of improvement.    The #5 spot is up for grabs between a bunch of rule 5 guys and minor league guys who have proven to be medicore on the minor league level or awful at the ML level.   We have basically no depth in the minors if things do go wrong.  Hess, Wright are not realistic options that a good team would be counting on.   Mesa pitched a partial season in AA last year.  Cortes has never been a full time starter in the minors.   Sure, some of these guys could be huge surprises.  Anything is possible.   An objective person (aka Debbie Downer) would say that things don't look very good.

Right now I peg us at .500 or slightly below.   I can’t imagine losing 90+ unless they do a major sell-off during the season.   I’d probably believe 90 wins before I’d believe 90 losses, even though I think 81 or below is the midpoint expectation.    I just don’t see this team collapsing to that extent.   

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Right now I peg us at .500 or slightly below.   I can’t imagine losing 90+ unless they do a major sell-off during the season.   I’d probably believe 90 wins before I’d believe 90 losses, even though I think 81 or below is the midpoint expectation.    I just don’t see this team collapsing to that extent.   

They were fairly healthy last year and lost 87.  I can see 90.