Should the Os aim to compete in 2020?

[TommyPickles]

Simple question, do you think the Orioles should aim to compete in 2020, or do they need a longer term rebuild?

The Case for 2020:

The starting rotation picture looks pretty clear:

1. Bundy (Last night was brutal, but I think he’ll be fine)

2. Cobb

3. Gausman

4. Cashner (if he pitches well, we can take the team option, if not we’ll have the choice to find someone better)

5. Harvey

The outfield should be productive and affordable.

Ideally many of these players will get a lot of opportunities to gain MLB experience this year and next. I think this group is the key to this plan.

CF- Mullins

RF- Hays

LF- Stewart

4th OF- Rickard

5th OF- Mancini/player to be named later (I’m assuming Trey plays a lot of 1B/DH in 2020)

The catching situation seems promising.

Sisco and Wynns could be a formidable duo by then. This year, Sisco has thrown out an (AL leading) 53% of runners and should become an overall better player with two years of major league catching under his belt.  Wynns is a strong defensive player, who I think could become a nice backup catcher.

The bullpen has some pieces.

Admittedly, they’ll have some work to do here. They will have Givens as a closer though, and several other young, low-cost, pieces like Castro, Blier, Hart, and Hess to build around.

The infield will need some work, but they’re going to have tons of payroll space to add some impact players.

Ryan Mountcastle should be in the MLB by 2020, and hopefully with some useful 2019 experience to his name.  We’ve got Davis and Mancini to handle the bulk of the 1B/DH duties. So that really just leaves 2B, SS, and UTI to sort out.

 

Certainly this plan requires a lot of prospects panning out, but it’s a young, affordable, and talented bunch. Could the Os build around this, add a couple key players, and play for the 2020 playoffs? Or is this no where near enough to catch the Red Sox and Yankees, who have their own plans for 2020?

 

[AnythingO's]

I don't think anyone believes Mountcastle will stick at 3rd, maybe 2B or DH. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2020 seems a bit optimistic  I’m thinking 2022, maybe 2021 if the Orioles do well on the rebuild. 

[Tx Oriole]

2 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Simple question, do you think the Orioles should aim to compete in 2020, or do they need a longer term rebuild?

The Case for 2020:

The starting rotation picture looks pretty clear:

1. Bundy (Last night was brutal, but I think he’ll be fine)

2. Cobb

3. Gausman

4. Cashner (if he pitches well, we can take the team option, if not we’ll have the choice to find someone better)

5. Harvey

The outfield should be productive and affordable.

Ideally many of these players will get a lot of opportunities to gain MLB experience this year and next. I think this group is the key to this plan.

CF- Mullins

RF- Hays

LF- Stewart

4th OF- Rickard

5th OF- Mancini/player to be named later (I’m assuming Trey plays a lot of 1B/DH in 2020)

The catching situation seems promising.

Sisco and Wynns could be a formidable duo by then. This year, Sisco has thrown out an (AL leading) 53% of runners and should become an overall better player with two years of major league catching under his belt.  Wynns is a strong defensive player, who I think could become a nice backup catcher.

The bullpen has some pieces.

Admittedly, they’ll have some work to do here. They will have Givens as a closer though, and several other young, low-cost, pieces like Castro and Blier to build around.

The infield will need some work, but they’re going to have tons of payroll space to add some impact players.

Ryan Mountcastle should be in the MLB by 2020, and hopefully with some useful 2019 experience to his name.  We’ve got Davis and Mancini to handle the bulk of the 1B/DH duties. So that really just leaves 2B, SS, and UTI to sort out.

 

Certainly this plan requires a lot of prospects panning out, but it’s a young, affordable, and talented bunch. Could the Os build around this, add a couple key players, and play for the 2020 playoffs? Or is this no where near enough to catch the Red Sox and Yankees, who have their own plans for 2020?

 

Some players you named should be gone like Kevin G. And why on earth did you pick Rickard for outfield? That's one thing that's wrong with this team. Picking hasbeens or never wases. Need new and better players. As for 2020 I hope they are a lot better team. 

 

[Aglets]

If you could tell me that you had a guaranteed plan to break it all down for 2 years and we'd be good by 2020 I'd take it in a heartbeat.

[utvolzac]

IMO, the roster as proposed is nowhere near good enough to be a contender.  I think your way overvaluing our prospects.

That outfield looks pretty bad to me, none of those guys are sure things that will ever reach their potential. I don’t see Stewart or Mullins as more than fringe prospects at this point.

Can Mountcastle stay at 3B? I thought most scouting reports have him moving to 1B eventually.

The rotation is basically what we have now. I’m not sure Gausman is ever going to be more than he has been. Harvey should be an upgrade over Tillman (who isn’t), but he’s also got major question marks. Cobb & Cashner are established vets, not sure how much improvement you can expect from them.

For that team to be contending, all of those prospects would have to EXCEED their predicted potential. Other than Hays, I haven’t seen any of those other guys on any nationally ranked lists. 

I agree that Bundy will be fine, but to me, he’s a sell high candidate. Simply because I find that I’m always holding my breathe that his arm isn’t going to fall off. If he can put together some consistently good games, I’d consider trading him while his value is high.

[spiritof66]

14 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Simple question, do you think the Orioles should aim to compete in 2020, or do they need a longer term rebuild?

The Case for 2020:

The starting rotation picture looks pretty clear:

1. Bundy (Last night was brutal, but I think he’ll be fine)

2. Cobb

3. Gausman

4. Cashner (if he pitches well, we can take the team option, if not we’ll have the choice to find someone better)

5. Harvey

The outfield should be productive and affordable.

Ideally many of these players will get a lot of opportunities to gain MLB experience this year and next. I think this group is the key to this plan.

CF- Mullins

RF- Hays

LF- Stewart

4th OF- Rickard

5th OF- Mancini/player to be named later (I’m assuming Trey plays a lot of 1B/DH in 2020)

The catching situation seems promising.

Sisco and Wynns could be a formidable duo by then. This year, Sisco has thrown out an (AL leading) 53% of runners and should become an overall better player with two years of major league catching under his belt.  Wynns is a strong defensive player, who I think could become a nice backup catcher.

The bullpen has some pieces.

Admittedly, they’ll have some work to do here. They will have Givens as a closer though, and several other young, low-cost, pieces like Castro, Blier, Hart, and Hess to build around.

The infield will need some work, but they’re going to have tons of payroll space to add some impact players.

Ryan Mountcastle should be in the MLB by 2020, and hopefully with some useful 2019 experience to his name.  We’ve got Davis and Mancini to handle the bulk of the 1B/DH duties. So that really just leaves 2B, SS, and UTI to sort out.

 

Certainly this plan requires a lot of prospects panning out, but it’s a young, affordable, and talented bunch. Could the Os build around this, add a couple key players, and play for the 2020 playoffs? Or is this no where near enough to catch the Red Sox and Yankees, who have their own plans for 2020?

 

I think this is, in most respects, the way to go. There are two glaring weaknesses The first one, which you point out, is that we're rolling the dice on our MiL OF prospects. I think that's the right thing to do.

The second, which you gloss over, is this: We. Have. No. Infielders. (I'm assuming we don't extend or sign Schoop.) To me, it's critical that this team (a) pick up at least one, and preferably two, strong 2B/SS/3B prospects trades for Machado and Schoop who project to be ready in '20 or '21, and (b) use next year's very high draft choice to draft a guy who looks like he's not too far from ready to fill one of these positions. Beckham might work out as the utility guy (or placeholder for one of the above until he's ready).

That doesn't look to me like a team that's ready to challenge the NYYs or RS, but it's a start.

[TommyPickles]

25 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Some players you named should be gone like Kevin G. And why on earth did you pick Rickard for outfield? That's one thing that's wrong with this team. Picking hasbeens or never wases. Need new and better players. As for 2020 I hope they are a lot better team. 

 

Gausman is not free agent eligible until 2021.

I suggested Rickard for a back up outfielder role. He’ll be 29 years old to start the 2020 season and in terms of DRS and dWAR he was one of the best outfielders on the team last year.  He can steal bases and play all three outfield spots. I don’t think this is that crazy.

I do agree that for this plan to work, a lot needs to go right and they need to add some other talented pieces. One upside of this plan is they’ll have the payroll flexibility to do so.

[Camden_yardbird]

When will a new CBA actually redefine how you can be competitive because the system under the current one has been figured out by the big market teams.

Look at the standings, look at the comparative payrolls within the divisions, weep for the future of baseball.

[Tx Oriole]

20 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Gausman is not free agent eligible until 2021.

I suggested Rickard for a back up outfielder role. He’ll be 29 years old to start the 2020 season and in terms of DRS and dWAR he was one of the best outfielders on the team last year.  He can steal bases and play all three outfield spots. I don’t think this is that crazy.

I do agree that for this plan to work, a lot needs to go right and they need to add some other talented pieces. One upside of this plan is they’ll have the payroll flexibility to do so.

Gausman isn't a FA till 2021? I didn't realize that. As for Rickard being the backup OF. Maybe that will be okay. What I worry about is the GM and Manager positions and Brady. 

[maybenxtyr]

28 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

When will a new CBA actually redefine how you can be competitive because the system under the current one has been figured out by the big market teams.

Look at the standings, look at the comparative payrolls within the divisions, weep for the future of baseball.

I would say the teams that are not spending are as much of the problem as the big spenders.

There are other teams in the category as Baltimore that just spends poorly. 

Revenue is up, and teams are going to spend it.. at least teams with aspirations of getting a World Series.

[jamalshw]

It fully depends on who the Orioles get during the deadline. If the Orioles can acquire some players ready to step into the Majors in the second half of 2018 or throughout the 2019 season then, maybe. If not, they'll need a longer window.

They need to add some infield options and I think they can use another OF bat or two and a few more arms. I get that Mullins, Stewart and Hays seems like a viable outfield, but I doubt all three stick (at least as everyday options).

If the O's don't think they can compete in 2020, they need to consider trading Gausman this offseason, too. I think Gausman could be an appealing piece to someone like Atlanta and unlikely to add rentals. Either way, we need to trade Manny and Schoop. Right now, I'm skeptical they can even get Manny done. If not, then we're looking more 2022, 2023.

[Camden_yardbird]

39 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I would say the teams that are not spending are as much of the problem as the big spenders.

There are other teams in the category as Baltimore that just spends poorly. 

Revenue is up, and teams are going to spend it.. at least teams with aspirations of getting a World Series.

Your first statement absolutely correct.  The pirates are a prime example of a team that could compete by supplementing what is a strong home grown base.