How good can the 2019 Orioles be?

[tntoriole]

17 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess one way to frame this is what's the 90% case for the whole roster?  I think the 50% case is 60 wins, give or take.  But, what happens if 80 or 90% of everything goes right?

Bundy could go 220 innings with a 3.25.
Trumbo could hit .275 with 30 homers and approach 2 wins above replacement.
Mancini could have a 3-win season.
Davis could somehow climb back to his 2017 glories and be replacement level.
Jonathan Villar could have something approaching his 4-win 2016.
Givens could throw 65 innings of a 2.00.
Nunez continues to hit better in the majors than he did in the minors.
Cashner somehow has an ERA under 5.00. 
Cobb throws 180 innings to a 3.25.

I think they could win 75, maybe 80.  That would be like 1989 all over again.  Just so long as all the overachivers aren't traded between June and July.

Sure...all these could happen.  Pretty unlikely imho.      60 wins max is my guess based on the talent and track record on this team roster at present. 

[wildbillhiccup]

I'd say this is a 55 win team, but it's probably going to take grit and a bit of overachieving to get there. On paper this is a worse roster than the 2018 team. They have little to no pop (I'm not expecting much from Trumbo and Davis) which means they're going to have to manufacture runs, but they don't really have the players to do that. And outside of Bundy and Cobb their starting pitching is terrible. Look at team like the Royals who are in a similar predicament offensively. They have multiple players on their team who can steal 30+ bases. The Orioles will be lucky to someone steals 15 bases. #reality. 

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'd say this is a 55 win team, but it's probably going to take grit and a bit of overachieving to get there. On paper this is a worse roster than the 2018 team. They have little to no pop (I'm not expecting much from Trumbo and Davis) which means they're going to have to manufacture runs, but they don't really have the players to do that. And outside of Bundy and Cobb their starting pitching is terrible. Look at team like the Royals who are in a similar predicament offensively. They have multiple players on their team who can steal 30+ bases. The Orioles will be lucky to someone steals 15 bases. #reality. 

"Manufacture Runs" is a nice way of saying they don't have anyone who can hit.  If you have a bunch of players who can bunt and hit-and-run and steal bases that usually means they're OPSing .650.  No amount of manufacturing is going to make up for a lack of average, walks, and power. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'd say this is a 55 win team, but it's probably going to take grit and a bit of overachieving to get there. On paper this is a worse roster than the 2018 team. They have little to no pop (I'm not expecting much from Trumbo and Davis) which means they're going to have to manufacture runs, but they don't really have the players to do that. And outside of Bundy and Cobb their starting pitching is terrible. Look at team like the Royals who are in a similar predicament offensively. They have multiple players on their team who can steal 30+ bases. The Orioles will be lucky to someone steals 15 bases. #reality.

#notreality

Jonathan Villar stole 21 bases in 54 games for the Orioles last year.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

#notreality

Jonathan Villar stole 21 bases in 54 games for the Orioles last year.

 

That's fine. I forgot about Villar. I don't think it changes the fact that this team is worse than last year. We've essentially replaced Machado, Schoop, and Gausman with Villar (for 2019).  Also, for context the Royals have two players (Gordon and Mondesi) who might steal 50+ each and another one (Merrifield) who shoudl steal 30+. 

Also, I'm completely fine with all this. It's part of the rebuild process. I was just speaking to the question posed by the original poster. 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

27 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

"Manufacture Runs" is a nice way of saying they don't have anyone who can hit.  If you have a bunch of players who can bunt and hit-and-run and steal bases that usually means they're OPSing .650.  No amount of manufacturing is going to make up for a lack of average, walks, and power. 

I agree, I was just trying to make the point that the Orioles are in an even worse position than the Royals. We don't have speed (outside of Villar). power, or players with a high OBP. 

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I agree, I was just trying to make the point that the Orioles are in an even worse position than the Royals. We don't have speed (outside of Villar). power, or players with a high OBP. 

I don't know that the O's are in a worse place than the Royals.  Stealing your way to winning usually just means your success rate drops below break-even and you're costing the team runs.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know that the O's are in a worse place than the Royals.  Stealing your way to winning usually just means your success rate drops below break-even and you're costing the team runs.

I think the big difference is their defense. The Royals should be well above average defensively this season. That plus the fact that the play in a MUCH worse division should guarantee them more wins. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished as high as second or third because the Indians have taken a step back and the White Sox, Tigers, and Twins aren't really that much better or worse. If Machado signs with the White Sox that would change things a bit. 

[Ohfan67]

10 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Below is according to Mlb.cm a list of the top player in baseball at every position along with where they were drafted.

Relieve pitcher: Craig Kimbrel-3rd rd.

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor-1st rd. 8th

1st baseman : Paul Goldschmidt- 8th rd.

Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer-1st rd. 11th

Left fielder: J.D. Martinez- 20th rd.

Center fielder: Mike Trout-1st rd. 25th

Right Fielder: Aaron Judge- 1st rd. 32nd

Catcher: Buster Posey-1st rd 5th

2nd Baseman: Jose Altuve-International. Note-as a prospect the highest he was rated was as the Astros 28th best.

3rd baseman: Jose Ramirez-International

As you’ll see above you don’t have to lose a lot of games in order to draft at the top of the draft to get great players. Out of the above only one Buster Posey was drafted in the top 5 and that was 5th overall and only 5 out of 10 were 1st rd picks. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-network-2019-best-players-at-each-position/c-264680678

 

 

 

 

 

 

Someone won 425 million dollars playing the lottery!! https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/02/us/mega-millions-new-year-lottery-winner/index.html

Heck, people win multimillion dollar lotteries pretty much every week of the year. I recommend that you sell your house and the rest of your belongings, withdraw your life savings and retirement fund, and purchase lottery tickets with the cash. 

 

The Orioles are actually the poster child for what a franchise looks like when they refuse to rebuild and instead hang on to tradeable assets and spend money on mediocre to decent free agents to push for 80 wins. And those were very, very ugly years. Most posters lauded the O's hiring of Elias, but some now want to stick their heads in the sand about where the Orioles are and what they need to do to rebuild. The 2018 Orioles were historically bad...while spending 148 million dollars, having Machado for half a year, signing free agent pitchers in the offseason, etc. Their farm system is ranked in the bottom third of baseball by many if not most and that's after trading away Machado et al. for prospects. They are far behind in terms of analytics and technological infrastructure. They need to stack the deck in their favor as much as possible. Winning 70 games to make a few fans feel slightly better (and I mean slightly...fans will still rant and rave about a 70 win season IMO) is not worth the reduction in draft pick placement. Remember that if you pick high in the first round you also get to pick high in the second round. 

[jrobb21613]

14 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Someone won 425 million dollars playing the lottery!! https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/02/us/mega-millions-new-year-lottery-winner/index.html

Heck, people win multimillion dollar lotteries pretty much every week of the year. I recommend that you sell your house and the rest of your belongings, withdraw your life savings and retirement fund, and purchase lottery tickets with the cash. 

 

The Orioles are actually the poster child for what a franchise looks like when they refuse to rebuild and instead hang on to tradeable assets and spend money on mediocre to decent free agents to push for 80 wins. And those were very, very ugly years. Most posters lauded the O's hiring of Elias, but some now want to stick their heads in the sand about where the Orioles are and what they need to do to rebuild. The 2018 Orioles were historically bad...while spending 148 million dollars, having Machado for half a year, signing free agent pitchers in the offseason, etc. Their farm system is ranked in the bottom third of baseball by many if not most and that's after trading away Machado et al. for prospects. They are far behind in terms of analytics and technological infrastructure. They need to stack the deck in their favor as much as possible. Winning 70 games to make a few fans feel slightly better (and I mean slightly...fans will still rant and rave about a 70 win season IMO) is not worth the reduction in draft pick placement. Remember that if you pick high in the first round you also get to pick high in the second round. 

Let’s let the cards fall where they fall and see what happens. We have new people in place up and down the orginazation hopefully they can have better success developing and getting more out the players in our system and of course future players. I do believe that if you have the right people in charge of the draft and developing them you can build a winning orginazation whether your drafting 1-5 or 15-20 but what do I really know I’m just a fan. I do believe that there is something that could be said for attitude and confidence that can come from winning 70plus games vs only 50 plus games that can help create a winning culture that in return will develop into playing playoff baseball sooner rather than later. 

[MemorialStadKid]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

The 2018 Orioles were historically bad...while spending 148 million dollars, having Machado for half a year, signing free agent pitchers in the offseason, etc. Their farm system is ranked in the bottom third of baseball by many if not most and that's after trading away Machado et al. for prospects. They are far behind in terms of analytics and technological infrastructure. They need to stack the deck in their favor as much as possible. Winning 70 games to make a few fans feel slightly better (and I mean slightly...fans will still rant and rave about a 70 win season IMO) is not worth the reduction in draft pick placement. Remember that if you pick high in the first round you also get to pick high in the second round. 

And that's what scares me about the near future. 

The lack of strong prospects and a relatively barren farm system AFTER the trades. I thought we'd get high-level prospects for Machado but things don't look great right now. 

I see 55-65 wins with the latter number being a pipe dream. At this moment, 3 of the 5 AL East teams (NYY, BOS, Tampa) will destroy us throughout the season. Just the AL East alone will relegate the team to the basement. 

It's not going to get better for a while. We just need to prepare for what's coming. 

MSK 

 

 

[Dipper9]

22 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Most have already wrote this season off as being another 100 loss season. I on the other hand believe that with the right coaching this team can be much better than many expect.

If Hyde and the rest of the coaching staff motivate these young guys and do what good coaches do which is get the best out of their players how good can the 2019 Orioles be? 

I say we flirt with .500 finishing just shy at 79-83.

I have more of a chance flirting with Alyssa Milano than the Orioles flirting with a .500 record.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Dipper9 said:

I have more of a chance flirting with Alyssa Milano than the Orioles flirting with a .500 record.

It's not that hard. She's on twitter.

Now, whether she's receptive is another issue altogether.

[BamaOsFan]

Trying to optimistic. 66 - 96.

[Number5]

55 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

I have more of a chance flirting with Alyssa Milano than the Orioles flirting with a .500 record.

Ummm, sorry, but not really.