Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[Tony-OH]

Really good article there by Trezza. He does a great job of getting into the analytics. 

Some other good news:
His 91.7 EV is his best since 2015. 
His 4.3 P/PA is the best of his career
His 51.6% hard hit% is best on the team

He'll need to do this for a longer time before people should get excited, but there's at least some hope that he could become something more than a complete zero at the plate.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As an aside, I am really liking Joe Trezza’s willingness to look at and present analytic data in his reporting and tweets.   He doesn’t overdo it, but he’s definitely willing to go there and presents it in a simple, understandable way.   

But I thought Joe Trezza was the worst thing ever?  (He’s not.)

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Really good article there by Trezza. He does a great job of getting into the analytics. 

Some other good news:
His 91.7 EV is his best since 2015. 
His 4.3 P/PA is the best of his career
His 51.6% hard hit% is best on the team

He'll need to do this for a longer time before people should get excited, but there's at least some hope that he could become something more than a complete zero at the plate.

So when does Elias start negotiations on a contract extension? 

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

So when does Elias start negotiations on a contract extension? 

At the same time he starts shopping him around for a trade at the trading deadline!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

At the same time he starts shopping him around for a trade at the trading deadline!

That would truly be a trade deadline miracle!

[InsideCoroner]

Does anyone know if Davis is using a lighter bat? Just curious as he looks thinner this year and his bat speed looked down in the past year or two, so if he’s turning faster with the same piece of lumber that’s impressive. Either way I like what I’m seeing. 

[Frobby]

FWIW, right now there are 19 players with at least 60 PA who have a worse wOBA than Davis, 7 with a worse BA, 26 with a worse OPS, and 24 with a lower fWAR.   And there are a lot of well known and/or highly paid players on these lists.   Here’s the fWAR sort:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=60&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,a

[mdbdotcom]

If Davis plays well enough to not be released he will really gum up the works.

[Aglets]

Yea Frobby, but what if you just take away all the numbers that make him look bad?    Then he looks pretty great right?

It'll be fascinating if he has an about face after his incredible 0fer spell, but I'm skeptical for now.  Ask me again at Memorial Day.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

If Davis plays well enough to not be released he will really gum up the works.

Sort of like a damned if you do or damned if you don't situation. It doesn't really matter this year, but by next year Davis could be blocking players who need to start getting in their MLB reps.

Best case would be Davis hits well enough that the Orioles can trade him even if they eat 85% of the contract.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Yea Frobby, but what if you just take away all the numbers that make him look bad?    Then he looks pretty great right?

It'll be fascinating if he has an about face after his incredible 0fer spell, but I'm skeptical for now.  Ask me again at Memorial Day.

Did I suggest I wasn’t skeptical?   I always said they’d give Davis two months almost no matter what.   That oh-fer was testing the “almost no matter what” scenario, but now I think he’s back to a two month evaluation period (at least).

[byrdz]

                                    
Split           G AB   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Last 7 days     5 13 .385 .385 .692 1.077
Last 14 days   10 29 .310 .355 .621  .976
 

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

If Davis plays well enough to not be released he will really gum up the works.

They'll figure it out. I know Davis' recent success probably has a few OHers bummed out, but those are the same folks who would tell you the O's won't have ownership clearance to release him anyway. So, IMO, he might as well play well and that's infinitely more entertaining than the other option. 

If you still are hoping he gets released at some point, you just have to trust that Elias understands he'll need to create roster room eventually and that any amount of good Davis performance is just diminishing returns at a certain point. 

In the meantime, I hope people just allow themselves to feel good for the guy. He won't impact the amount of wins this year so we'll still get a good draft pick. And there's no urgency to call up, say, Mountcastle, so he's not blocking anyone. They were going to give Davis the majority of this season anyway, so nothing has really changed other than we have a feel good story for a little while. And even that may not continue for long.

IMO nothing has really changed about Davis' chances of getting released because nothing has really changed about Davis' chances of having sustained success. At least not until we see a larger sample.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, byrdz said:

                                    
Split           G AB   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Last 7 days     5 13 .385 .385 .692 1.077
Last 14 days   10 29 .310 .355 .621  .976
 

I don't think that level of production is sustainable, but .800 OPS over a full season would be huge.

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't think that level of production is sustainable, but .800 OPS over a full season would be huge.

Its odd that he says he couldnt hit the high fastball last year and now he can. Im not sure what thats about, unless he was that pull happy.  Maybe he's just seeing the ball better, its clear he is for this short stretch. Though I think his bat looks slower than a few years ago.