Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You want him to think he’s still capable of that.    It’s for the rest of us to think he’s not.   

Yeah, I gotta agree with brother Frobby here.  Even though we think Davis should be completely broken, humbled and saying all the right things (newsflash, people here still wouldn't be satisfied if he were, they'd find other things to harp on), part of what makes an athlete great is the fact that they think they're great.  Especially in a game where you're headed to the Hall of Fame if you fail 7 times out of 10.  

I don't care that Davis thinks he's still got it, or that he's a fix or two away from 40+ homers, we should all hope for that.   We all want that.  

But he needs to be confident and think that he can still do it to get there.  Even if we don't.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I gotta agree with brother Frobby here.  Even though we think Davis should be completely broken, humbled and saying all the right things (newsflash, people here still wouldn't be satisfied if he were, they'd find other things to harp on), part of what makes an athlete great is the fact that they think they're great.  Especially in a game where you're headed to the Hall of Fame if you fail 7 times out of 10.  

I don't care that Davis thinks he's still got it, or that he's a fix or two away from 40+ homers, we should all hope for that.   We all want that.  

But he needs to be confident and think that he can still do it to get there.  Even if we don't.  

Despite everything, if he’s even a scintilla better than last year then he’s almost guaranteed to pass the 300 hr milestone (16 hr last year, sitting at 283). Only 147 men have done that. I’d say it’s more likely than not that he ends up in the top-100 all time (339 is the line currently). I don’t think it’s crazy for someone who is able to do that as a baseball player to be confident in their abilities, recent failures or struggles aside. 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, BohKnowsBmore said:

Despite everything, if he’s even a scintilla better than last year then he’s almost guaranteed to pass the 300 hr milestone (16 hr last year, sitting at 283). Only 147 men have done that. I’d say it’s more likely than not that he ends up in the top-100 all time (339 is the line currently). I don’t think it’s crazy for someone who is able to do that as a baseball player to be confident in their abilities, recent failures or struggles aside. 

I hope he is, I just don't see how.  Maybe he's a little better but...even a little better, he's still most likely sub 0.0 WAR.  

I'd like to be wrong, I think he ends up short of that 339 mark.  I think he's going to be just as bad as last year, maybe even a little worse.  If that's the case, he can't be on the team headed into July and no one else picks him up.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Despite everything, if he’s even a scintilla better than last year then he’s almost guaranteed to pass the 300 hr milestone (16 hr last year, sitting at 283). Only 147 men have done that. I’d say it’s more likely than not that he ends up in the top-100 all time (339 is the line currently). I don’t think it’s crazy for someone who is able to do that as a baseball player to be confident in their abilities, recent failures or struggles aside. 

I think it is less than 50/50 that Davis gets to 339 homers.    But we’ll see.     

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it is less than 50/50 that Davis gets to 339 homers.    But we’ll see.     

I think it is only 50/50 he gets to 300.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think it is less than 50/50 that Davis gets to 339 homers.    But we’ll see.     

There’s this thing we do where big time exceeding expectations is bound for negative regression, but shockingly bad is the new normal despite any career track record. I wouldn’t bet he’s good again, but I think finding a way to have three more meh (not good) seasons averaging 20 bombs is a decent mid range projection. The challenge I guess would be finding the opportunity, but we’re paying him anyway and he won’t be blocking anyone as a DH against RHB next season, so I think there’s at least two years of probable at bats. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hope he is, I just don't see how.  Maybe he's a little better but...even a little better, he's still most likely sub 0.0 WAR.  

I'd like to be wrong, I think he ends up short of that 339 mark.  I think he's going to be just as bad as last year, maybe even a little worse.  If that's the case, he can't be on the team headed into July and no one else picks him up.

I vote he’ll be a little better than last year.    Which in a way is the worst place for him to be.   That tempts the team to hold on in case he keeps improving, while still harboring a sub-replacement player.   

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is only 50/50 he gets to 300.

Is there any mechanism for making friendly wagers on this site? Some places do “signature bets,” for example?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Frobby said:

I vote he’ll be a little better than last year.    Which in a way is the worst place for him to be.   That tempts the team to hold on in case he keeps improving, while still harboring a sub-replacement player.   

Well, worst place for the fans to be.  Pretty good for him, protects his place on the team, might not get released, no potential buyout, etc.  

But we'd have to still watch.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, BohKnowsBmore said:

Is there any mechanism for making friendly wagers on this site? Some places do “signature bets,” for example?

I still owe someone a six pack of craft beer from ages ago.  They never sent me contact information.

[TheOtherRipken]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

We just disagree.  Even in the interviews you selectively picked from, I still hear somebody explaining away the performance.  "...it has been a long year".  Yes, for those of us who had to pay good money to watch this garbage, ...not quite so long a year for somebody making 20 million. 

"Failure just follows me around daily."  This again does not sound like a personal responsibility statement.  It sounds like he attributes his problems are due to the black clouds of fate rather than his work ethic.  

"Obviously the strikeouts are up and the weak contact, whatever you want call it."   Again, he is projecting it onto the media, the fans "whatever WE want to call it."  Well, what I want to call it is garbage and unwillingness to change.    But it is certainly not a personal responsibility statement..."the strikeouts are up"  IS NOT  "I am striking out too much."   "the weak contact"  is not "I am not hitting the ball solidly."

It may seem to be splitting hairs, but I believe he has gotten his guaranteed millions and while he does well in putting on public airs about changing, doing better, but, in reality, remains far too satisfied as many big contract players have become once they sign their deals. 

Yea you think its a character issue, I think its foreseeable declining performance and not character. We just fundamentaly disagree.

[tntoriole]

20 minutes ago, TheOtherRipken said:

Yea you think its a character issue, I think its foreseeable declining performance and not character. We just fundamentaly disagree.

Oh I agree that his performance on the field has been both foreseeable and declining.  I agree with you on this.  His character is reflected in his approach to that reality, imho , i.e. stubbornly not changing, describing changing when not changing at all, expecting that his contract protects him from being benched/ released, etc. 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You want him to think he’s still capable of that.    It’s for the rest of us to think he’s not.   

Healthy confidence is one thing.  Denial of any need to change is another thing.  

[OsEatAlEast]

I've got something to pump you guys up!

Think of Percival as an O's fan. Then think of Arthur as being the O's

 

[TheOtherRipken]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Healthy confidence is one thing.  Denial of any need to change is another thing.  

I think you still need to admit, he does own his bad performance.  I can't imagine being in his situation, the pressure of the contract and being on that stage, and total inability to perform even to the level of the worst players in the league. If I was in that situation, it would totally break me.  Sounds like sort of classic, money does not always = happiness.