O's trade International Signing Bonus Slots to Blue Jays for OF Dwight Smith Jr

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The point was that he's outperformed his minor league stats for a good chunk of plate appearances now.  It's getting to a point where it shouldn't be ignored.

I see your point, but I’m going to need to see him perform well for at least another month or two before I get over his MiL numbers. We’re talking 236 major league PA vs. 3105 MiL PA.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

McLouth was brutal defensively.  Maybe you were being sarcastic, it's hard to tell online.  

No I thought Mclouth had very good defense. I remember multiple great catches.

I just checked and his defense in LF, except for a slightly weak arm, was above average. He wasn’t quite as good as I thought he was, but he was at or above average in every category except arm strength.

[Philip]

28 minutes ago, Aglets said:

According to the sacred defensive metrics that must not be questioned...............both McLouth and Dwight Smith were/are below replacement.

McLouth was worth -.4 and -.3 dWAR for us in 2012 and 2013 respectively.    In 2012 it was through 55 games, in 2013 it was for nearly a full season (146).

Now Smith is already worth -.3 dWAR so far in 2019 so if there's truth to that then he may be more than a bit worse by September.

He had positive DRS and UZR and UZR/150. I don’t understand why his DWAR was negative but if Nate were on this team he’d be our best defender.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

No I thought Mclouth had very good defense. I remember multiple great catches.

I just checked and his defense in LF, except for a slightly weak arm, was above average. He wasn’t quite as good as I thought he was, but he was at or above average in every category except arm strength.

The main thing is, McLouth was a big upgrade over the players who had manned LF before he arrived.   You can debate exactly how good he was, but he was unquestionably an improvement over what we’d been seeing.  

[Moose Milligan]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I see your point, but I’m going to need to see him perform well for at least another month or two before I get over his MiL numbers. We’re talking 236 major league PA vs. 3105 MiL PA.

Yep, he's not out of the woods yet.  But I think he might be getting there.  

Curious to see how he does the 2nd time through the league.

[Redskins Rick]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The main thing is, McLouth was a big upgrade over the players who had manned LF before he arrived.   You can debate exactly how good he was, but he was unquestionably an improvement over what we’d been seeing.  

Nate was a nice reclamation project for sure.

I enjoyed watching how he played the game.

[ArtVanDelay]

52 minutes ago, Philip said:

No I thought Mclouth had very good defense. I remember multiple great catches.

I just checked and his defense in LF, except for a slightly weak arm, was above average. He wasn’t quite as good as I thought he was, but he was at or above average in every category except arm strength.

I was more looking at his career numbers rather than just his time with the Orioles.  Fielding metrics require a large sample size.  But yeah, DRS and UZR have him as an average defender with the O's.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I was more looking at his career numbers rather than just his time with the Orioles.  Fielding metrics require a large sample size.  But yeah, DRS and UZR have him as an average defender with the O's.

When Nate was here, wasnt he part of that special defensive season the Orioles played on the field?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

According to the sacred defensive metrics that must not be questioned...............both McLouth and Dwight Smith were/are below replacement.

McLouth was worth -.4 and -.3 dWAR for us in 2012 and 2013 respectively.    In 2012 it was through 55 games, in 2013 it was for nearly a full season (146).

Now Smith is already worth -.3 dWAR so far in 2019 so if there's truth to that then he may be more than a bit worse by September.

I will go back to my usual disclaimer - remember what dWAR is: it's defensive runs above/below average plus positional adjustment.  Smith is a corner outfielder, which is an easier-than-average position, so his positional adjustment is negative.  This means that even if he's an above-average LFer his overall dWAR may be zero or negative.  A very good first baseman is still going to be a worse defender and have a lower dWAR than an average CFer or SS.

I will again say it's far less confusing to just state runs above or below average at whatever position.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

He had positive DRS and UZR and UZR/150. I don’t understand why his DWAR was negative but if Nate were on this team he’d be our best defender.

Because he was a left fielder, and left field is the place where people who can't play C, SS, CF, 3B, 2B, and RF go.  dWAR puts all positions on a common baseline.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

According to the sacred defensive metrics that must not be questioned...............both McLouth and Dwight Smith were/are below replacement.

McLouth was worth -.4 and -.3 dWAR for us in 2012 and 2013 respectively.    In 2012 it was through 55 games, in 2013 it was for nearly a full season (146).

Now Smith is already worth -.3 dWAR so far in 2019 so if there's truth to that then he may be more than a bit worse by September.

-.3 dWar for a left fielder is really good.  -.3 War for a Shortstop, Second Baseman, Catcher  or third baseman is terrible.  It is just the way that WAR is reported for defensive positions and is quite meaningless to look at Defensive WAR.  

[ArtVanDelay]

35 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

When Nate was here, wasnt he part of that special defensive season the Orioles played on the field?

Errors aren't the greatest way to judge defensive ability.  

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Errors aren't the greatest way to judge defensive ability.  

But a lot of errors, does tend to tell you they dont have any defensive ability.

You also look at the number of POs, as those were balls, he was able to get too.

[Philip]

31 minutes ago, atomic said:

-.3 dWar for a left fielder is really good.  -.3 War for a Shortstop, Second Baseman, Catcher  or third baseman is terrible.  It is just the way that WAR is reported for defensive positions and is quite meaningless to look at Defensive WAR.  

Seems like an awkward and confusing way to calculate things. It’s silly to have all players on a level field because catchers aren’t Left Fielders. Compare catchers to other catchers and not to left fielders. And just because a guy is in Left doesn’t mean he’s only there because he’s terrible everywhere else. If he does well in left that’s great.

and Nate did. To this day he’s one of my favorites.

and his Walk-up music was Kyrie by Mister Mister. Great song.

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Seems like an awkward and confusing way to calculate things. It’s silly to have all players on a level field because catchers aren’t Left Fielders. Compare catchers to other catchers and not to left fielders. And just because a guy is in Left doesn’t mean he’s only there because he’s terrible everywhere else. If he does well in left that’s great.

and Nate did. To this day he’s one of my favorites.

and his Walk-up music was Kyrie by Mister Mister. Great song.

That's exactly what it does.