Keegan Akin 2019

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we're mostly in agreement.  Obviously, Elias knows what's up.  

I'm not sure if we disagree here or not but IMO, either a player has it or not.  I am sure being shuttled back and forth between the majors and minors isn't great.  But at some point they've gotta get it together.  I'll pick on Hess, his stuff isn't that great.  Unless he develops better command or another pitch that makes batters have to account for something else, I don't see how he's going to stick.

I consider Akin a better prospect than Hess, based on the evaluations by Tony, Luke and other evaluators who periodically rank Oriole prospects.    So, I harbor strong hopes that he will have a smoother ride in the majors than Hess, regardless of when he reaches the majors.   

That said, I do think that having a solid development plan and not rushing guys helps pitchers succeed.    In the last 5-6 years, which of our starting pitcher prospects had the smoothest transition to the majors?    Answer: Zach Davies, who spent a full year at each stop in our system.    Meanwhile a far more talented pitcher like Gausman has underachieved, IMO, because he was rushed initially and then yoyo-ed around.    He still may end up having a better career than Davies, but it shouldn’t have even been a close call.

From what I’ve read about Akin, he has progressed nicely but still needs some improvement in command and the consistency of some of his secondary offerings.   I’d like him to focus on that without having to worry too much about day-to-day results.   When he’s made enough progress, then by all means get him up here.   

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

To me, what this season is all about is developing the younger players and promoting them (whether within the minors or up to the majors) when the organization is confident that they’re ready, rather than just throwing people out there and seeing what happens.     Akin has moved pretty quickly — player his first full season at Frederick without a stop in Delmarva, and despite a somewhat mediocre season there, was promoted to Bowie for 2018.    He’s doing fine in AAA but it’s not like he’s dominating the league.   I defer to Elias & co. as to exactly what they want him to accomplish/master before coming up to the majors, but to me, you bring him up when you think he’s as ready as he’s ever going to be, and when you think he has a good shot at staying in the bigs.    If that means that a guy with less long term potential is taking some lumps while keeping the spot warm, so be it.    

I don’t want to pick on David Hess, but he was brought to the majors with about as much AAA experience and success as Akin has right now.    I don’t want Akin to have the same rough ride that Hess is experiencing.   

Akin has the tools to be an MLB SP and Hess never has IMO. I do agree that there is no reason to promote him now.

[Luke-OH]

Also important to remember when comparing AAA performance that International League avg ERA was 3.84 in 2018 and 4.88 in 2019.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Akin has the tools to be an MLB SP and Hess never has IMO. I do agree that there is no reason to promote him now.

See my immediately prior post above yours, which you probably hadn’t seen when responding to my previous ones.  

I do find it pretty striking how similarly Hess and Akin have performed in AAA to this point:

Hess: 9 starts, 45.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

Akin: 8 starts, 40.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9.    

Of course, the International League is much more hitter-friendly now that they are using the major league baseballs.   (Edit — LOL, I see that you just posted about that.)

[orioles22]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

To me, what this season is all about is developing the younger players and promoting them (whether within the minors or up to the majors) when the organization is confident that they’re ready, rather than just throwing people out there and seeing what happens.     Akin has moved pretty quickly — player his first full season at Frederick without a stop in Delmarva, and despite a somewhat mediocre season there, was promoted to Bowie for 2018.    He’s doing fine in AAA but it’s not like he’s dominating the league.   I defer to Elias & co. as to exactly what they want him to accomplish/master before coming up to the majors, but to me, you bring him up when you think he’s as ready as he’s ever going to be, and when you think he has a good shot at staying in the bigs.    If that means that a guy with less long term potential is taking some lumps while keeping the spot warm, so be it.    

I don’t want to pick on David Hess, but he was brought to the majors with about as much AAA experience and success as Akin has right now.    I don’t want Akin to have the same rough ride that Hess is experiencing.   

I agree that it's more important to follow the timetable that is best for the player. How good or bad the team is should not be a factor.

Hess, Scott and others are brought up from AAA before they are ready and then seem to start a shuttle. I'm not sure that bringing them up early hurt their chances to succeed in the majors, but it certainly didn't help and it's not worth taking a chance on someone like Akin. I'd like to see him win 10-15 games and maybe be the best pitcher in the league this year, which truly means he has nothing left to prove. Then it will be up to him whether he makes it next year or just becomes a AAAA pitcher like some of others we have.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, orioles22 said:

I agree that it's more important to follow the timetable that is best for the player. How good or bad the team is should not be a factor.

Hess, Scott and others are brought up from AAA before they are ready and then seem to start a shuttle. I'm not sure that bringing them up early hurt their chances to succeed in the majors, but it certainly didn't help and it's not worth taking a chance on someone like Akin. I'd like to see him win 10-15 games and maybe be the best pitcher in the league this year, which truly means he has nothing left to prove. Then it will be up to him whether he makes it next year or just becomes a AAAA pitcher like some of others we have.

Once a player gets put on the 40 it can't just be about what is best for the player, especially for pitchers.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Also important to remember when comparing AAA performance that International League avg ERA was 3.84 in 2018 and 4.88 in 2019.

Interesting, as far as I know, it's always been known as a pitcher's league. Probably still is compared to the PCL.  I assume the change is due to using the MLB balls?  Now I think I see why you said Akin's gotten better this year.  

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Once a player gets put on the 40 it can't just be about what is best for the player, especially for pitchers.

Depends on the player and the circumstances of the team.    In our current circumstance, short term team need cannot override proper player development.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

Interesting, as far as I know, it's always been known as a pitcher's league. Probably still is compared to the PCL.  I assume the change is due to using the MLB balls?  Now I think I see why you said Akin's gotten better this year.  

But the ball isn't juiced!

Just ask Manfred.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Depends on the player and the circumstances of the team.    In our current circumstance, short term team need cannot override proper player development.  

Innings need to be thrown and players need not be put in situations that are more likely to lead to injury. 

Unless you are willing to DFA somebody to bring up a guy to eat 3 innings instead of promoting a Tanner Scott.

[Luke-OH]

36 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Interesting, as far as I know, it's always been known as a pitcher's league. Probably still is compared to the PCL.  I assume the change is due to using the MLB balls?  Now I think I see why you said Akin's gotten better this year.  

That’s one part, but I’ve been watching his starts and has been carrying a better FB than he has in the past, the changeup has been really good at times too, like 3 in a row for a K of Daz Cameron (top 100ish prospect) good.

[Frobby]

Short outing today, 3.2 IP,  5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K’s.     He threw 81 pitches, 48 for strikes.   All the hits and walks were packed into the 3rd and 4th innings, after Akin had struck out the first four batters of the game and sailed through two perfect innings.    

Elias was asked about Akin’s timetable for reaching the majors and said he was counting on Akin being a part of the rotation in the future and that he should keep doing what he’s been doing.    My impression was that a second half call-up is a possibility if Akin pitches well.   

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Short outing today, 3.2 IP,  5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K’s.     He threw 81 pitches, 48 for strikes.   All the hits and walks were packed into the 3rd and 4th innings, after Akin had struck out the first four batters of the game and sailed through two perfect innings.    

Elias was asked about Akin’s timetable for reaching the majors and said he was counting on Akin being a part of the rotation in the future and that he should keep doing what he’s been doing.    My impression was that a second half call-up is a possibility if Akin pitches well.   

I watched it, he was as sharp as I’ve ever seen him in the first two innings, he was putting his fastball anywhere he wanted it. In the third, there was a bad two base error by Bostick and I think 3 IF hits, after that, he lost his groove and was falling behind every hitter. 

[Frobby]

Akin had a good outing yesterday, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K’s.    He threw 95 pitches in 5 innings, and if I have a criticism of him so far this year, it’s that he’s not being pitch-efficient and getting deep into games.  He’s thrown 48.2 innings in 10 starts, averaging 17.4 pitches per inning.   

[LookinUp]

I'd say that's a legitimate criticism. If it (regularly) takes 95 pitches to go 5 IP in AAA, I'm not sure he's ready for the show quite yet. By that, I mean ready to be dropped into our starting rotation.