Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?

[Redskins Rick]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

@bobmc, the idea of creating a personal WAR score is terrifying.   I don’t know when I had my peak (if ever), but it certainly isn’t now!   But hopefully some great times remain.    

Amen, the ole song, "not as good as I once was." pops into my mind.

[LookinUp]

A few stats for comparison:

Means 2019         Keuchel 2018           Keuchel 2015

7.68 K/9                6.73 K/9                    8.38 K/9     
2.33 BB/9             2.55 BB/9                  1.98 BB/9
1.16 HR/9             .79 HR/9                    .66 HR/9
.234 BABIP           .300 BABIP               .269 BABIP
44.0 GB%              53.7 GB%                   61.7 GB%
2.33 ERA               3.74 ERA                   2.48 ERA
4.17 FIP                 3.69 FIP                    2.91 FIP
4.7 xFIP                 3.84 xFIP                  2.75 xFIP

Means just turned 26 years old. Keuchel was 30 last year and 27 in 2015, when he won 20 games. He won 12 the year prior, with less impressive numbers. However, after 2013, that FIP is always good. It got as high as 3.87 in 2016.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

A few stats for comparison:

Means 2019         Keuchel 2018           Keuchel 2015

7.68 K/9                6.73 K/9                    8.38 K/9     
2.33 BB/9             2.55 BB/9                  1.98 BB/9
1.16 HR/9             .79 HR/9                    .66 HR/9
.234 BABIP           .300 BABIP               .269 BABIP
44.0 GB%              53.7 GB%                   61.7 GB%
2.33 ERA               3.74 ERA                   2.48 ERA
4.17 FIP                 3.69 FIP                    2.91 FIP
4.7 xFIP                 3.84 xFIP                  2.75 xFIP

Means just turned 26 years old. Keuchel was 30 last year and 27 in 2015, when he won 20 games. He won 12 the year prior, with less impressive numbers. However, after 2013, that FIP is always good. It got as high as 3.87 in 2016.

 

.234 BABIP and an ERA nearly two runs lower than FIP.  And I was just starting to like the guy.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

.234 BABIP and an ERA nearly two runs lower than FIP.  And I was just starting to like the guy.

I'll add some batted ball stats next. Maybe that'll shed some light. I wonder how FIP is affected by SSS.

[LookinUp]

I think we've found our culprit. FB%.

Means 2019         Keuchel 2018           Keuchel 2015

1.04 GB/FB           2.20 GB/FB            3.14 GB/FB
42.2 FB%               24.4 FB%                19.6 FB%
13.8 LD%               22.0 LD%               18.7 LD%
10.9 HR/FB%        8.8 HR/FB%          12.0 HR/FB%
42.3 Pull%             44.9 Pull%             36.0 Pull%
16.2 Soft%            22.4 Soft%            25.2 Soft%
24.3 Hard%           28.1 Hard%           21.3 Hard%

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, bobmc said:

TMI?  @scOtt or @weams will know ..... 

 

 

I was a highly rated prospect out of HS. 1st round draft pick but languished in the minors for several years with my failed marriage too young. Learned from that but not sure I learned the right things... Puttered around the Independent leagues for years gaining attention for my golfing "prowess." Had several holes-in-one, many many (4-man) tourneys won. Added WAR in college at 30, and life knowledge. Was in the Majors for a few years but ended up much like Steve Howe, substitute beer and smoke for the cocaine. All in all What a long strange trip it's been!

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think we've found our culprit. FB%.

Means 2019         Keuchel 2018           Keuchel 2015

1.04 GB/FB           2.20 GB/FB            3.14 GB/FB
42.2 FB%               24.4 FB%                19.6 FB%
13.8 LD%               22.0 LD%               18.7 LD%
10.9 HR/FB%        8.8 HR/FB%          12.0 HR/FB%
42.3 Pull%             44.9 Pull%             36.0 Pull%
16.2 Soft%            22.4 Soft%            25.2 Soft%
24.3 Hard%           28.1 Hard%           21.3 Hard%

13.8% LD rate?  The lowest rate in the majors in 2018 was 17%.  I have to think that's due for some staggering regression.

[LA2]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well if I have a wide sense of territory, I don't know what to say about cherry picking 11 starts and ignoring the total body of work.  

I'll grant you that Millwood had some good stretches, I'm not ignoring that but I also don't think that's a good argument.  Daniel CaBBrera had good stretches, for example.  Most pitchers that last 16 years in the big leagues as Millwood did will have good stretches like that or even good complete seasons.

However, I can't look at someone who lead the league in losses (even though losses can be a misleading stat, I am assuming his run support was terrible..as you initially noticed, he was a hard luck loser) with a 5.10 ERA (and his FIP wasn't far off at 4.86 so we can't blame the defense too much for that) and think that they had anywhere near a "decent season".  Oddly enough, he was a tough luck winner as 2 out of his 4 wins came in the June/July bad stretch that he had.  He was near the end of the line by the time he got here, he only made 37 starts after his season in Baltimore.  

We can agree to disagree.  I see where you're coming from and acknowledge it wasn't all bad when he was here.

The first thing you can say is that the 11 starts (3.89) to begin the season and 10 starts (3.09) that ended the season add up to 21. So I "cherry-picked" 21 starts in two substantial continuous periods as opposed to the whole season you "brown doo-doo'"-ed on. Was he near the end of the line? Yes, of a 2,720-innings career. Did he have an awful W/L record? Yes, on a last-place 66-96 team. I didn't claim he had a great season. I merely pointed out why it didn't deserve the excrement from you and the ridiculousness of the comparison with Mike Wright.

I remember feeling we had a chance when he started. And he was part of that rotation that, along with Bergesen, Guthrie, Matusz, and Arrieta--and some Chris Tillman as well--performed so well in the closing months of the 2010 season, under the new management of Buck Showalter.

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

13.8% LD rate?  The lowest rate in the majors in 2018 was 17%.  I have to think that's due for some staggering regression.

I'm assuming there's some substitution in the numbers, but am not sure. He's giving up a lot of FB's that become HRs. If they were lower, they'd add to his LD%, right? 

[Moose Milligan]

41 minutes ago, LA2 said:

The first thing you can say is that the 11 starts (3.89) to begin the season and 10 starts (3.09) that ended the season adds up to 21. So I "cherry-picked" 21 starts in two substantial continuous periods as opposed to the whole season you "brown doo-doo'"-ed on. Was he near the end of the line? Yes, of a 2,720-innings career. Did he have an awful W/L record? Yes, on a last-place 66-96 team. I didn't claim he had a great season. I merely pointed out why it didn't deserve the excrement from you and the ridiculousness of the comparison with Mike Wright.

I remember feeling we had a chance when he started. And he was part of that rotation that, along with Bergesen, Guthrie, Matusz, and Arrieta--and some Chris Tillman as well--performed so well in the closing months of the 2010 season, under the new management of Buck Showalter.

21 starts of mid 3.00 ERA...offset by two terrible months.  And they must have been REALLY bad to make an ERA rise like that.  Like I said, complete body of work.  

But agree to disagree.  

[OFFNY]

1 hour ago, LA2 said:

 

The first thing you can say is that the 11 starts (3.89) to begin the season and 10 starts (3.09) that ended the season adds up to 21. So I "cherry-picked" 21 starts in two substantial continuous periods as opposed to the whole season you "brown doo-doo'"-ed on. Was he near the end of the line? Yes, of a 2,720-innings career. Did he have an awful W/L record? Yes, on a last-place 66-96 team. I didn't claim he had a great season. I merely pointed out why it didn't deserve the excrement from you and the ridiculousness of the comparison with Mike Wright.

I remember feeling we had a chance when he started. And he was part of that rotation that, along with Bergesen, Guthrie, Matusz, and Arrieta--and some Chris Tillman as well-- performed so well in the closing months of the 2010 season, under the new management of Buck Showalter.

 

o

 

That was my feeling, also ........ when Guthrie, Millwood, Matusz, and (usually) Arrieta were on the mound, I thought that we had a chance. Not that we were necessarily going to win, because bad teams often find ways to lose, whether it be not offensively supporting a good start, not coordinating a good offense with good pitching and defense all in one game, making an error and/or not coming through on offense at a crucial point in a close game, etc ........ but I thought that we had a chance when they started the games.

Bergesen was not the same pitcher after he had gotten his leg broken on a line drive the year before, and Tillman was still 2 years away from the nice run that he had between 2012 and 2016.

 

o

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

@bobmc, the idea of creating a personal WAR score is terrifying.   I don’t know when I had my peak (if ever), but it certainly isn’t now!   But hopefully some great times remain.    

Always at the top of the popular contributors on the OH has to count for something, right?

[Can_of_corn]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jalen-beeks-dallas-braden-and-john-means-on-crafting-their-changeups/

Quote

John Means, Baltimore Orioles

“It was a big pitch for me in college, but then I kind of changed the grip at the start of my pro career. I started trying to throw it more like my fastball. It was getting too hard, though. It ended up not being a huge pitch for me in the minor leagues.

John Means’ changeup grip

“In spring training this year, I worked with Chris Holt, our pitching coordinator. He’s kind of like the changeup guru. We were working on trying to slow it down, slow it down. I’ve always been good at making it look like my fastball, with arm speed, and that sort of thing. Now that I’ve slowed it down, it’s become more of a two-strike pitch. It used to be more of a 1-0, 1-1 sort of pitch. Now it’s more of a 1-2 pitch.

“Last year, it was about 83-85 mph. Now it’s 78-80, for the most part. I’m not getting more depth on it, or anything like that. Honestly, I don’t get a whole lot of action on my changeup. Hitters just swing so far ahead of it that it doesn’t really matter.

“Coming into this spring, my changeup actually had more spin rate than my fastball. It didn’t make any sense. Last year it was around 2,300 [rpm], while my fastball was around 2,200. It was incredible. No one could figure it out. I guess it’s because I would get behind it so much, trying to make it look like my four-seam fastball. My changeup is a four-seam.

“In college, I threw a two-seam changeup. It was very slow, kind of one of those Bugs Bunny changeups where you can swing twice before it gets to the plate. When I got to pro ball, I was told that it wouldn’t work, because it was too slow. It didn’t look enough like my fastball.

“I have the arm speed set, from having learned to throw it more like a fastball, so now that I’ve figured out how to slow it down, it’s a lot better pitch for me. I have a looser grip now. I’d been kind of tucking it too far, and staying behind it too much. Now I’m trying to pronate it, and get on the edges of my fingers. I don’t know what the spin rate is on it, but I assume it’s lower, because I’m throwing it slower.”

 

[bobmc]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

@bobmc, the idea of creating a personal WAR score is terrifying.   I don’t know when I had my peak (if ever), but it certainly isn’t now!   But hopefully some great times remain.    

In OH WAR, you're like Trout or Ruth.  In life, I suspect you have had a nice career WAR ( but no links to stats).

[bobmc]

7 hours ago, scOtt said:

I was a highly rated prospect out of HS. 1st round draft pick but languished in the minors for several years with my failed marriage too young. Learned from that but not sure I learned the right things... Puttered around the Independent leagues for years gaining attention for my golfing "prowess." Had several holes-in-one, many many (4-man) tourneys won. Added WAR in college at 30, and life knowledge. Was in the Majors for a few years but ended up much like Steve Howe, substitute beer and smoke for the cocaine. All in all What a long strange trip it's been!

And you haven't yet reached your prime retirement years!  Nice recap and well done to have survived!