2019 1st round pick (1): Adley Rutschman - Catcher - Oregon State University

[Number5]

16 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

95+% chance they all sign. Practically 100% for the college kids (Adley, Stowers, Watson). Like I’ve said before, they’ll probably announce all the rest of the signings all at once. So in all likelihood, a bunch of deals are done but just not announced, the 5th round pick Hernaiz was reported to have agreed to a deal last week. None of this is abnormal.

I don’t think @weams will have a significantly different take.

Out of curiosity, why is that?  Is there some advantage to holding off and announcing them all at once?

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Out of curiosity, why is that?  Is there some advantage to holding off and announcing them all at once?

One reason would be keeping it so the team had more information about their financial flexibility as far as what they could offer than the player’s advisors/agents. Maintaining that information gap could be somewhat advantageous. The other being amplifying the PR campaign by announcing the core of the draft class all at once.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

95+% chance they all sign. Practically 100% for the college kids (Adley, Stowers, Watson). Like I’ve said before, they’ll probably announce all the rest of the signings all at once. So in all likelihood, a bunch of deals are done but just not announced, the 5th round pick Hernaiz was reported to have agreed to a deal last week. None of this is abnormal.

I don’t think @weams will have a significantly different take.

I think they all have deals already. That’s my take

[weams]

2 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

Hi Weams

  It is frustrating when a pick is taken and he decides to reenter the draft next year.

 

No. It’s ok in the first three rounds as they are protected picks. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

No. It’s ok in the first three rounds as they are protected picks. 

For instance. If Adley did not sign, Orioles would likely have both picks 1 and 2 and their money for next year. Which would make for a very flexible draft. Also the Orioles get a competitive balance A first rounder for 2020. 

[makoman]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

One reason would be keeping it so the team had more information about their financial flexibility as far as what they could offer than the player’s advisors/agents. Maintaining that information gap could be somewhat advantageous. The other being amplifying the PR campaign by announcing the core of the draft class all at once.

Yeah, I could be misremembering, but if I recall, the Gausman year he was the last to sign and we just gave him full slot. It's easier to go below slot if your last guy doesn't know what's left. You probably don't want to be known as the org that always caves at the end and gives everything left to the #1 guy.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, makoman said:

Yeah, I could be misremembering, but if I recall, the Gausman year he was the last to sign and we just gave him full slot. It's easier to go below slot if your last guy doesn't know what's left. You probably don't want to be known as the org that always caves at the end and gives everything left to the #1 guy.

I think they went a bit overslot on Gausman.

[Aglets]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they went a bit overslot on Gausman.

Nice memory.  According to some random things I found on the Internet we signed Gausman for 4.32M when the slot allocation was 4.2M.

[hoosiers]

Going full on Gausman caused us to not be able to sign a decently rated JUCO pitcher, IIRC.  Hard to believe Gausman would have turned down $3.9M to go back to school when slot was $4.2M.  

Anyway, now, like then, we do have some HS players drafted in the last five rounds who may be signable if we have some $ below slot.  The key would be to sign Henderson for slot or near slot and save some $ in signing AR.  I think that is why you don't announce things - as Henderson's agent more than anyone else would probably be looking for any additional $.

It would be a nice addition to our draft haul if we had $300k-$500k left over for one of those late HSers.

[Aglets]

It's fun to go back and look at some of this stuff all these years later.

So in 2012 we went a bit overslot on Gausman.

Here are the rest of the results from that year:  http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=bal&year=2012

Just looking at the rest of the top 10 rounds, we did miss on signing our 5th rounder, a high school LHP named Colin Poche.  Who knows exactly why.

Fast forward a few years later.........................

He was drafted again in 2016 by Arizona, but in the 14th round (post TJ surgery), so it appears that his gamble didn't exactly work out.

Then he was a PTBNL in the Steven Souza trade with Tampa in 2018.   

His WHIP and K numbers are pretty outstanding in the minors,  and the Rays just promoted him this year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pocheco01.shtml

So let the hand-wringing begin!  The next time you see him come out of the pen against us.

 

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Going full on Gausman caused us to not be able to sign a decently rated JUCO pitcher, IIRC.  Hard to believe Gausman would have turned down $3.9M to go back to school when slot was $4.2M.  

Anyway, now, like then, we do have some HS players drafted in the last five rounds who may be signable if we have some $ below slot.  The key would be to sign Henderson for slot or near slot and save some $ in signing AR.  I think that is why you don't announce things - as Henderson's agent more than anyone else would probably be looking for any additional $.

It would be a nice addition to our draft haul if we had $300k-$500k left over for one of those late HSers.

Gausman was a sophomore draftee so he had a bit more leverage than most.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

Going full on Gausman caused us to not be able to sign a decently rated JUCO pitcher, IIRC.  Hard to believe Gausman would have turned down $3.9M to go back to school when slot was $4.2M.  

Anyway, now, like then, we do have some HS players drafted in the last five rounds who may be signable if we have some $ below slot.  The key would be to sign Henderson for slot or near slot and save some $ in signing AR.  I think that is why you don't announce things - as Henderson's agent more than anyone else would probably be looking for any additional $.

It would be a nice addition to our draft haul if we had $300k-$500k left over for one of those late HSers.

I really doubt those HS guys are signing unless Henderson falls through. Andrew Martinez from UCSB would be the most apparent signable overslot guy if there is some left over.

[LookinUp]

17 hours ago, Aglets said:

Just looking at the rest of the top 10 rounds, we did miss on signing our 5th rounder, a high school LHP named Colin Poche.  Who knows exactly why?

Fangraphs described him as the most unhittable arm in the minors last year. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-unhittable-arm-in-the-minors/

[jerios55]

21 hours ago, weams said:

For instance. If Adley did not sign, Orioles would likely have both picks 1 and 2 and their money for next year. Which would make for a very flexible draft. Also the Orioles get a competitive balance A first rounder for 2020. 

One thing I haven't seen, are competitive balance picks also protected?  

[weams]

1 hour ago, jerios55 said:

One thing I haven't seen, are competitive balance picks also protected?  

My understanding is all of the top three rounds. Which would include them.