Where does Rutschman land and when?

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Generous of you.

I think it’s worth mentioning the guys who have shown well and were/are considered more than organizational filler. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think it’s worth mentioning the guys who have shown well and were/are considered more than organizational filler. 

Which I deemed generous.

[Yardball85]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Probably starts at Delmarva, finishes at Frederick and starts next year at Bowie.

That's my thinking too.  Next year Bowie/Norfolk, with a chance to make the team in 2021.

[weams]

7 hours ago, Yachtsman said:

Delmarva. Let him grow with that nucleus and move him up next year.  

Agree.

[MurphDogg]

I would start him in Frederick. Closer to Baltimore (geographically), and if he is truly good enough to be up in early 2021, two months in Frederick, then splitting 2020 between Bowie and Norfolk makes the most sense to me.

Delmarva already has the best record in affiliated baseball, how much better do they need to get?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Alex Bregman had the exact promotion schedule I suggested could happen with Rutschman.  The caveat is that he's a catcher but he's already advanced defensively so I don't see that as a huge factor in delaying his timetable. If he performs, he'll dictate an aggressive promotion schedule.  

Agree with this.    Bregman started at low A, made it to hi A the summer he was drafted.    The fact that Rutschman has to learn pro catching skills might cause him to start lower, but we’ll see.

[TINSTAAPP]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Alex Bregman had the exact promotion schedule I suggested could happen with Rutschman.  The caveat is that he's a catcher but he's already advanced defensively so I don't see that as a huge factor in delaying his timetable. If he performs, he'll dictate an aggressive promotion schedule.  

I would say the one key difference though is that the Astros had a 54-44 record and were 2.5 back off the division and 1/2 game back off the wild card when they promoted Bregman. He was fast-tracked just like Manny was fast-tracked in 2012 because they were in the middle of a playoff race and needed him. It'll be an enormous surprise if the Orioles are in playoff contention next year. I mean I would love to see him play in the majors next year but it would make more sense not to waste a year of his service on a team that is going to lose 100+ games. 

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You are absolutely right. At the same time, if Rutschman excels in the minors I don't think the O's will hold him back.  They aren't going to give him a September callup in 2020.  He will have to be so good in the minors to force his way up before that. I think that's entirely possible.

I agree that he could force his way faster than Elias wants in theory, but put yourself in Elias' shoes on this. What incentive does he have to even put Rutschman on a path where he could force his way up before his service time passes in 2021? 

I've read this thread and really don't know what will happen. However, I could actually imagine them putting him in Aberdeen or Delmarva this year. By the time he tears whichever league apart, the season will be over. Then they could start him in Frederick next year and theoretically make him work his way through all 3 levels. 

I think that's how I would handle it if I were Elias but I absolutely understand that if this kid really is a generational talent, the O's might not hold him back like that.

[Just Regular]

Let's watch the Tigers and Casey Mize the next couple months - that's the Adley comp for next summer.

I'm equally certain he's good enough to be up next year (heck - if this was the 2012 Orioles and we had a hole at catcher, I'd consider doing the Manny thing with him), and that there's no incentive for him to be.  Because he's special is why he is qualified to play the show in a year, but also why the 7th year means more.  

Sally championship with Grayson this year, AAA championship with Hall in 2020, early MLB relevance with both in 2021?

[NCRaven]

Any reasonable timetable gives the O’s control over Rutschman until he’s 29-30 years old.  I don’t really care whether they re-sign a 30+ year old catcher (assuming they don’t extend him earlier). So there’s really little reason to manipulate his service time, IMO.  Let him develop and bring him up when he proves he’s ready - hopefully by early 2021.

[MurphDogg]

13 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Any reasonable timetable gives the O’s control over Rutschman until he’s 29-30 years old.  I don’t really care whether they re-sign a 30+ year old catcher (assuming they don’t extend him earlier). So there’s really little reason to manipulate his service time, IMO.  Let him develop and bring him up when he proves he’s ready - hopefully by early 2021.

I just want to make sure we have the age 29 season. Even if he shows he is ready by next summer, I would still wait until two weeks into 2021.

[Ruzious]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Anyone suggesting that AR us going to grow with a certain group or nucleus of other players just doesn't get it.  This kid is supposed to be special.  He's not like the others.  At least, I hope he's not.

Yeah, I think people still don't get - This guy isn't like any of the rest, so throw away the guidelines that may be effective for the rest.  I mean... he's been compared favorably to Buster Freakin Posey, and he's 21; not 18.        

[Aristotelian]

12 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Brandon Finnegan and Chris Sale both pitched in the majors the year they were drafted. Sale actually only pitched 10 innings in the minors before he was promoted and has never been back down since except when he's been on a rehab assignment. 

David Price pitched in the World Series the year he was drafted! All were drafted out of high school and then re-drafted out of college.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

I just want to make sure we have the age 29 season. Even if he shows he is ready by next summer, I would still wait until two weeks into 2021.

What if we are contending next year?

[orioles22]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

I just want to make sure we have the age 29 season. Even if he shows he is ready by next summer, I would still wait until two weeks into 2021.

I can see this. He could play at Delmarva and Frederick this year, then Bowie and Norfolk next year and a couple of weeks into 2021..