Could the O’s muster an average offense next year?

[Frobby]

1st half: .240/.303/.402 (league average: .757 OPS, O’s 14th/15)

2nd half: .256/.318/.430 (league average:  .769 OPS, O’s 9th/15)

Obviously, the O’s offense has taken a step in the right direction, though it’s still below average in the second half.    The main reasons for improvement:

- Villar much better (.747/.882)

- Alberto much better (.718/.836)

- Ruiz much better (.635/.827)

- Less playing time for Davis (6.3% of team PA in first half/4.9% in second half)

- Less playing time for Martin (5.9%/4.0%)

There are some other players who improved in the second half by lesser amounts, as well.  

So, is it realistic to think we could improve to having an average offense in 2020?   Some thoughts:

- Releasing Davis or cutting his playing time even further would help.

- Sending Martin to AAA or seeing some further improvement from him would help, depending on who replaces him.

- Much depends on what we get from Hays, possibly Stewart, and eventually Mountcastle (who I presume will be in the majors by sometime in May at the latest).

- There are some guys who struggled in the second half, especially the catchers, so they’ll need to rebound.

I think where I come out is that it’s possible our offense could improve to average next year, but I deem it unlikely.     But, it should be better than 2019 as a whole.

 

 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1st half: .240/.303/.402 (league average: .757 OPS, O’s 14th/15)

2nd half: .256/.318/.430 (league average:  .769 OPS, O’s 9th/14)

Obviously, the O’s offense has taken a step in the right direction, though it’s still below average in the second half.    The main reasons for improvement:

- Villar much better (.747/.882)

- Alberto much better (.718/.836)

- Ruiz much better (.635/.827)

- Less playing time for Davis (6.3% of team PA in first half/4.9% in second half)

- Less playing time for Martin (5.9%/4.0%)

There are some other players who improved in the second half by lesser amounts, as well.  

So, is it realistic to think we could improve to having an average offense in 2020?   Some thoughts:

- Releasing Davis or cutting his playing time even further would help.

- Sending Martin to AAA or seeing some further improvement from him would help, depending on who replaces him.

- Much depends on what we get from Hays, possibly Stewart, and eventually Mountcastle (who I presume will be in the majors by sometime in May at the latest).

- There are some guys who struggled in the second half, especially the catchers, so they’ll need to rebound.

I think where I come out is that it’s possible our offense could improve to average next year, but I deem it unlikely.     But, it should be better than 2019 as a whole.

 

 

I think the Orioles will trade whoever they can. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

I think the Orioles will trade whoever they can. 

Trades and acquisitions obviously will impact the answer to my question.   Tough to speculate what those will be, though.   

[The Goob]

I think this lineup could be a little better than league average and above average defensively:

 

Villar - 2B (806 OPS in 2019)

Mancini - 1B (892 OPS in 2019)

Santander - RF (796 OPS in 2019)

Nunez - DH (772 OPS in 2019)

Sisco / Severino - C (Both over 730 OPS in 2019)

Ruiz - 3B (827 OPS post All Star break)

Stewart - LF (OPS just under 700 for August-September)

Hays - CF (I think he could put up a 700 OPS, was 758 at AAA in 2019)

Iglesias - SS (Lifetime 685 OPS)

 

Adding in Mountcastle to play in May will also help to some extent.  Overall this team could out up a 760 OPS in 2020 and be league average.  Now about the pitching.......

[wildcard]

Since Elias' focus in likely on 2022 and not 2020 I don't think we can count on the O's offense being  league average.  The addition of Hays and (Mountcastle on April 10th)  should improve the offense but Villar may be traded.  Losing Villar will set the offense back. 

[Just Regular]

When I click on the team's B-Ref page this time next year, offensively I hope not to see Davis/Martin/Smith/Wilkerson and do hope to see Mountcastle/Bannon/Diaz/Hays.

Today's good OPS+'s are Severino 97, Villar 111, Mancini 132, Nunez 101.  Alberto and Santander make 10 potentially decent hitters next year.

Villar's SS viability seems like the difference between plenty of time to see if Alberto/Bannon can click, or enduring Martin again.  We've had such a nice Santander return this year, I am kind of hoping to let Martin just bid for AAA MVP next year if he can, and see if he can play his way back into an eventually Andino-esque role on a good team.

[LA2]

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

When I click on the team's B-Ref page this time next year, offensively I hope not to see Davis/Martin/Smith/Wilkerson and do hope to see Mountcastle/Bannon/Diaz/Hays.

Today's good OPS+'s are Severino 97, Villar 111, Mancini 132, Nunez 101.  Alberto and Santander make 10 potentially decent hitters next year.

Villar's SS viability seems like the difference between plenty of time to see if Alberto/Bannon can click, or enduring Martin again.  We've had such a nice Santander return this year, I am kind of hoping to let Martin just bid for AAA MVP next year if he can, and see if he can play his way back into an eventually Andino-esque role on a good team.

I'm a bit concerned that pitchers will find a way to deal with Severino, Santander, and Nunez. The light finally turning on for Sisco and the arrival of Hays and Mountcastle and maybe Diaz might make up for several regressions though.

Can you point me to a good assessment of Bannon, both offensively and defensively? Thanks.

[mdbdotcom]

If this team could mustard an average offense, many fans would relish it, though it would be tough to ketchup to the Yankees and Red Sox.

 

[LA2]

3 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

If this team could mustard an average offense, many fans would relish it, though it would be tough to ketchup to the Yankees and Red Sox.

 

And yet, with all that, there are still many players and even fans adverse to having too many hot dogs on a team!

[bobmc]

33 minutes ago, LA2 said:

And yet, with all that, there are still many players and even fans adverse to having too many hot dogs on a team!

Agreed.  It's just sauer kraut - er - .  

[Aristotelian]

Absolutely, the offense is not the problem. Insert Hays full time and bench Davis, I do think we are average offensively. Unfortunately the pitching has been so off the charts bad that we could still lose100+ even with an average offense/defense.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

If this team could mustard an average offense, many fans would relish it, though it would be tough to ketchup to the Yankees and Red Sox.

 

Wow. This thread is on a roll!  

What level of offense the Orioles will generate next year is pretty uncertain since we don't have many, maybe not any, regulars other than Mancini and maybe Villar (I'm sure I've forgotten someone) with anything resembling an established level of production from which you can confidently extrapolate. I also don't know much about how other rebuilding, or just plain bad, AL teams' offenses will look next year. 

I think the biggest uncertainties are at SS and C. I don't want to see Villar as the regular SS, but as of now I think that's the most likely option: tender him, pay him for a year or two, and then use him where the need is the greatest (and avoid spending smaller amounts for a better-fielding SS who won't hit, or a series of them). There's likely to be a big difference in offense from the SS spot between Villar and others the Orioles might put there.

Though I hope there will be upgrades, I'm looking at Mancini, Alberto, Ruiz, Wilkerson, Davis (somewhere from 0 to 150 ABs), Nunez, Santander, Hays and Stewart, without Mountcastle, as the offense as the offense other than at SS and C. With Villar as the regular SS and a little more production from Sisco and an upgrade or Severino, I think it's reasonable to see the 2020 Orioles finishing from 7th to 9th in the AL in runs scored -- average or a tick below. They are 12th in runs scored this season, and eighth since the All-Star break.

[Moose Milligan]

@Frobbyyou should put a link to this one on your calendar for late March/early April 2020 so we can check back in and see what changes have been made.

I agree that the 2020 offense should be better.  I am not expecting it to be better by leaps and bounds but it should be addition by subtraction in regards to Martin and Davis for starters.  

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

Wow. This thread is on a roll!  

What level of offense the Orioles will generate next year is pretty uncertain since we don't have many, maybe not any, regulars other than Mancini and maybe Villar (I'm sure I've forgotten someone) with anything resembling an established level of production from which you can confidently extrapolate. I also don't know much about how other rebuilding, or just plain bad, AL teams' offenses will look next year. 

I think the biggest uncertainties are at SS and C. I don't want to see Villar as the regular SS, but as of now I think that's the most likely option: tender him, pay him for a year or two, and then use him where the need is the greatest (and avoid spending smaller amounts for a better-fielding SS who won't hit, or a series of them). There's likely to be a big difference in offense from the SS spot between Villar and others the Orioles might put there.

Though I hope there will be upgrades, I'm looking at Mancini, Alberto, Ruiz, Wilkerson, Davis (somewhere from 0 to 150 ABs), Nunez, Santander, Hays and Stewart, without Mountcastle, as the offense as the offense other than at SS and C. With Villar as the regular SS and a little more production from Sisco and an upgrade or Severino, I think it's reasonable to see the 2020 Orioles finishing from 7th to 9th in the AL in runs scored -- average or a tick below. They are 12th in runs scored this season, and eighth since the All-Star break.

Good post. I agree, I am not sold on either Sisco or Severino, more for defense than offense. Severino has had some terrible passed balls lately and we know Sisco can't get it to 2B on the fly. I was pretty excited about Severino early in the year but I am over that the more I have seen him play.