2020 Mock Offseason

[Camden_yardbird]

Lets do away with one line of thinking right away.  I call it the Neal Huntington Fallacy.  Huntington, the Pirates GM has said in the past that free agency is a losing proposition.  That there is very little to gain and that you almost never make your money's worth. 

A lot of people follow this paradigm, especially in light of increasing ages of FA eligible players.  The problem is that it's just plain wrong. 

Some people may say "sure there is value but a rebuilding team doesn't need free agent."  To that I would argue first, that competition is a good thing, a deep team is a good thing, and that expecting 9 or even 10 position players, and 5 starters to occupy your starting positions is a fool's errand.  And second, that if you have expectations in 2021, and I do, that roster construction begins this off season.

Here are a list of players who signed 1 year or 2 year deals who more than lived up to them in year 1.

James McCann, C.  1 year.  McCann had a .789 OPS.  18 HR.

Asdrubal Cabrera. 1 year.  .783 OPS. 18 HR. 91 RBI.

DJ LeMahieu.  4 year contract.  Almost won the batting title.

Brian Dozier. 2 year contract .771 OPS

David Murphy. 2 year contract .780 OPS

Eduardo Escobar.  .831 OPS.  35 HR.  118 RBI

Donaldson. 1 year contract.  .900 OPS. 37 HR, 94 RBI

Iglesias.  1 year contract.  Plus Defense.  .724 OPS, .288 avg.

Galvis. 1 year contract.  .734, 23 HR.  

Michael Brantley, 2 years. .875 OPS, 22 and 90.

Cameron Maybin.  1 year.  .858 OPS in 239 ABs.

Danny Santana. 1 year. .857 OPS. 20/20 season.

Avisail Garcia.  1 year.  .796 20/10 season

Charlie Morton. 2 year contract.  Top 5 AL pitcher.

Mike Fiers.  15-4. 3.90 era

Martin Perez.  10-7. 5.12 ERA.  Fell off hard in the second half probably tradeable at the deadline if they want to.

Homer Bailey.  13-9.  4.50 ERA

Mike Minor (Signed in 2018 to a 3 year deal) arguably a top 3 pitcher in the majors.

There is definitely value out there.  Not all deals work out, but if I were the Orioles I would be looking for 2-3 players along that I could find this type of value from.

 

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I expect no major FA acquisitions. Maybe, just maybe, they sign Iglesias or Galvis on 1-2 year deals since the system is still thin in those spots and may need to replace Villar as well. Possibly they could be flipped if they perform.

Biggest moves, if any, will be trading of Villar, Givens, and/or Bundy.

Oh yeah, and I predict we will grind the Rule 5 draft, as always.

 

When you're in the Orioles position, you have to listen to any trade that's proposed. I'd be really disappointed if Mancini, Hays, Santander, Means or Harvey wasn't in an Oriole uniform next year, but whatever it takes to improve the team a couple of years down the road .  .  .

It would be nice to trade Givens, Bundy and/or Cobb this off-season. But I wouldn't dump any of them for a near-zero return, and I think what's what you'd get now. (I would take nothing for Cobb if someone would take on a big chunk of the $29 mm he's owed over the next two years, one of only two big contracts still on the books. But it's hard to imagine that happening.) A trade of any of these guys after he's established some value in the first couple of months of the season would probably make more sense, though the likely consequence would be not trading all of them, and maybe not any of them. But I still think that's the way to go. And, even if we end up stuck with them, these three are probably among the best pitchers we've got, so if we. 

I don't see the point of tendering and then trading Villar. If you tender him, plan to keep him, subject to the point that anyone on the roster is available for the right return. I have warmed up to Jonathan over the last couple of months, and wouldn't even mind seeing him as the regular SS, with a cheap, slick-fielding utility guy as the backup, even if that backup isn't the offensive force that Richie Martin is.  By the way, Martin starts the season at Norfolk, working on his fielding and bunting as well as his hitting, and is there until at least September, barring a need created by injury or an unexpected trade.)

It's tempting to think about signing a catcher after the rotten defense we saw from Sisco (expected) and Severino (unexpected). One of my disappointments about 2019 is that I still don't know what future role either of those guys, or Wynns, should be expected to play if Rutschman is catching 100 games or so beginning in a couple of years. Unless there's a real problem with the way these guys call games and work with the pitchers, I think the best plan is to suffer through another season or two with them and Wynns and then figure out what to do. 

Especially if Cobb's not in the rotation, I think it would be worthwhile to pick up a free agent starter at a level a little higher and costlier than the Dan Straily level. While I expect the team to be bad next year, I think there's a chance to move things up a notch if the starting pitching is bolstered a bit. I'm not a big believer in the positive effects of good clubhouse chemistry, but I've read a lot (and heard from Mike Bordick, whose insights are always center-cut, for sure) about how helpful Cashner was to the young pitchers. I don't know whether Cobb would be helpful in that way, if he's still around. Filling out the rotation with someone like Cashner (and Cashner would be a guy a lot like Cashner) for a few million, plus incentives, would be worth it, in my opinion.

I doubt there will be, or should be, non-dumpster help for the bullpen from outside the organization. After having to watch it all year, I don't want to have to think about the Orioles bullpen for a little while.

[Can_of_corn]

But the O's aren't going to be competitive next year so even if good value is to be had on a one year deal why should the O's participate?

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Not all deals work out, but if I were the Orioles I would be looking for 2-3 players along that I could find this type of value from.

I accept your point, but I wonder when the Orioles will enter that mode. I'm guessing we'll be cheap this year and focus on those types of guys in 2021. That will make atomic angry. I could be swayed either way. A couple of good arms would make a huge difference in our 2020 prospects for winning 81 game. That doesn't seem to fit the mold of when this org will spend though. 

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

 

I don't see the point of tendering and then trading Villar. If you tender him, plan to keep him, subject to the point that anyone on the roster is available for the right return. I have warmed up to Jonathan over the last couple of months, and wouldn't even mind seeing him as the regular SS, with a cheap, slick-fielding utility guy as the backup, even if that backup isn't the offensive force that Richie Martin is.  By the way, Martin starts the season at Norfolk, working on his fielding and bunting as well as his hitting, and is there until at least September, barring a need created by injury or an unexpected trade.)

 

Good post overall. I agree with listening on Mancini et al. My larger point was that the most interesting moves (if any) this offseason will be on the trade side rather than free agency.

The thinking on Villar is that he may have more of a market this year after his monster second half. If a market does not materialize for him before the arb deadline, I think we go ahead and tender him but that does not mean he plays the full year (or more) as an Oriole. If he continues his production, there may be more of a market for him this year, in which case Elias pulls the trigger. I agree, keeping him long term makes just as much sense as signing Iglesias, but that is a longshot too.

[Camden_yardbird]

29 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I accept your point, but I wonder when the Orioles will enter that mode. I'm guessing we'll be cheap this year and focus on those types of guys in 2021. That will make atomic angry. I could be swayed either way. A couple of good arms would make a huge difference in our 2020 prospects for winning 81 game. That doesn't seem to fit the mold of when this org will spend though. 

I cant imagine they will be happy with less than 60 wins again next year.  At some point you have to establish expectations.  I dont know that an improving roster given present resources captures those 5 to 10 wins next year, and 15 to 20 over the next two, especially if you trade Mancini or Villar.  Because of that I would expect some additions this year via free agency.

You cant win 47-55 games three years in a row and expect that you can spend in free agency and jump to 80+ from one free agent class.

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

You cant win 47-55 games three years in a row and expect that you can spend in free agency and jump to 80+ from one free agent class.

It's up to 2020's Fab Five to carry the team's true talent level into the 60's, and then Messrs. Rutschman, Hall and Rodriguez to push 2021 towards .500 before you try and recapitulate the Vlad/Tejada offseason, hopefully getting the real big fish this time.

[ScGO's]

I don't see us playing the FA market much.  If I was Elias, I'd probably try to sign Jose Iglesias to play SS on a 1 year contract, and sign a cheap SP or two on a 1 year/milb reclamation project deal.  If he trades Villar, Mancini, etc, we might need to fill a few wholes, but he might get some pieces in the trade or play the waiver wire before gambling on the FA market.  No big signs until probably 2022.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I cant imagine they will be happy with less than 60 wins again next year.  At some point you have to establish expectations.  I dont know that an improving roster given present resources captures those 5 to 10 wins next year, and 15 to 20 over the next two, especially if you trade Mancini or Villar.  Because of that I would expect some additions this year via free agency.

You cant win 47-55 games three years in a row and expect that you can spend in free agency and jump to 80+ from one free agent class.

I disagree with this. I don't think they care if we have 50 or 70 wins next year except to the extent it reflects how the new people brought up to hopefully be part of the eventual solution, like Akin, Mountcastle, et al., are doing.

With that in mind, any signing they make will likely be with the goal that that person, if everything falls right, could be an asset to either trade for future talent or who could actually be around in 2021/2022 when we're hopefully becoming competitive.

[weams]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You spelled 16 year old Dominicans wrong.

17. True.

[weams]

9 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Free agents, if this helps:

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal (31 years old, 3.9 WAR) -- $16 million mutual option for 2020 ($2.25 million buyout)
Jason Castro (33, 1.6)
Tyler Flowers (34, 1.6) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Robinson Chirinos (36, 1.5)
Travis d’Arnaud (31, 1.1)
Brian McCann (36, 1.0)
Alex Avila (33, 1.0)
Russell Martin (37, 0.8)
Austin Romine (31, 0.5)
Martin Maldonado (33, 0.1)
Yan Gomes (32, 0.0) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jonathan Lucroy (34, -0.2)
Francisco Cervelli (34, -0.2)
Matt Wieters (34, -0.3)
Nick Hundley (36, -0.3)
Chris Iannetta (37, -0.6)
Welington Castillo (33, -0.9) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo (30 years old, 3.1 WAR) -- $14.5 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Eric Thames (33, 1.3) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
David Freese (37, 1.2)
Jose Abreu (33, 0.7)
Justin Smoak (33, 0.6)
Matt Adams (31, 0.5) -- $4 million mutual option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Logan Forsythe (33, 0.5)
Mitch Moreland (34, 0.3)
Neil Walker (34, 0.3)
Ryan Zimmerman (35, -0.1) -- $18 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Yonder Alonso (33, -0.8)
Mark Reynolds (36, -0.8)
Steve Pearce (37, -0.9)
Lucas Duda (34, -0.9)

Second Basemen

Howie Kendrick (36 years old, 1.7 WAR)
Brian Dozier (33, 1.4)
Brock Holt (32, 1.1)
Jason Kipnis (33, 1.0) -- $16.5 million club option for 2020 ($2.5 million buyout)
Jonathan Schoop (28, 0.8)
Wilmer Flores (28, 0.6) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Brad Miller (30, 0.4)
Gordon Beckham (33, 0.2)
Ben Zobrist (39, 0.0)
Scooter Gennett (30, -0.2)
Starlin Castro (30, -0.2) -- $16 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Yangervis Solarte (32, -0.3)
Josh Harrison (32, -0.6)
Chris Owings (28, -0.8)
Eduardo Nuñez (33, -1.0)

Third Basemen

Anthony Rendon (30 years old, 5.0 WAR)
Josh Donaldson (34, 3.7)
Mike Moustakas (31, 2.7) -- $11 million mutual option for 2020 ($3 million buyout)
Asdrubal Cabrera (34, 1.0)
Todd Frazier (34, 0.9)
Pablo Sandoval (33, 0.9)
Jedd Gyorko (31, -0.2) -- $13 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Martin Prado (36, -0.9)
Jung Ho Kang (33, -1.0)

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus (31 years old, 1.7 WAR) -- can opt out of 3 years, $43 million remaining on contract
Freddy Galvis (30, 1.6) -- $5.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jose Iglesias (30, 1.5)
Didi Gregorius (30, 0.6)
Adeiny Hechavarria (31, 0.1)
Jordy Mercer (33, -0.1)

Left fielders

Brett Gardner (36 years old, 2.9 WAR)
Marcell Ozuna (29, 2.0)
Hunter Pence (37, 1.8)
Corey Dickerson (31, 0.7)
Alex Gordon (36, 0.7) -- $23 million mutual option for 2020 ($4 million buyout)
Gerardo Parra (33, 0.1)
Peter Bourjos (33, -0.5)
Carlos Gonzalez (34, -0.6)
Matt Kemp (35, -0.8)
Curtis Granderson (39, -1.1)

Center fielders

Starling Marte (31 years old, 2.6 WAR) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Jarrod Dyson (35, 1.5)
Billy Hamilton (29, 0.3) -- $7.5 million mutual option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Carlos Gomez (34, -0.1)
Juan Lagares (31, -0.9) -- $9.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Leonys Martin (32, -0.6)
Austin Jackson (33, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

Right fielders

Adam Eaton (31 years old, 2.2 WAR) -- $9.5 million club option for 2020 ($1.5 million buyout)
Kole Calhoun (32, 1.9) -- $14 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Nicholas Castellanos (28, 1.6)
Avisail Garcia (29, 1.6)
Jason Heyward (30, 1.6) -- can opt out of 4 years, $86 million remaining on contract if he has 550 plate appearances in 2019
Cameron Maybin (33, 1.4)
Yasiel Puig (29, 1.3)
Nick Markakis (36, 0.1) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Adam Jones (34, 0.3)
Melky Cabrera (35, -0.7)
Jon Jay (35, -0.8)
Lonnie Chisenhall (31, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

Designated hitters

Nelson Cruz (39 years old, 3.2 WAR) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($300,000 buyout)
J.D. Martinez (32, 2.6) -- can opt out of 3 years, $62.5 million remaining on contract
Edwin Encarnacion (37, 2.2) -- $20 million club option for 2020 ($5 million buyout)
Kendrys Morales (37, -0.8)
Hanley Ramirez (36, -0.2)
Mark Trumbo (34, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (29 years old, 4.5 WAR)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.1)
Stephen Strasburg (31, 4.0) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
Zack Wheeler (30, 3.6)
Jose Quintana (31, 3.1) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.0)
Jake Odorizzi (30, 2.8)
Kyle Gibson (32, 2.6)
Cole Hamels (36, 2.4)
Tanner Roark (33, 2.2)
Michael Pineda (30, 2.1)
Adam Wainwright (38, 1.9)
Wade Miley (33, 1.8)
Homer Bailey (34, 1.7)
Brett Anderson (32, 1.6)
Andrew Cashner (33, 1.6) -- $10 million option for 2020 vests with 340 IP combined over 2018-19; becomes player option with 360 IP over '18-19
Martin Perez (29, 1.6) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Yu Darvish (33, 1.5) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract
Ivan Nova (33, 1.4)
Julio Teheran (29, 1.4) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jason Vargas (37, 1.4) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Rick Porcello (31, 1.3)
Jake Arrieta (34, 1.0) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option
Gio Gonzalez (34, 0.8)
Rich Hill (40, 0.8)
Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout)
Corey Kluber (34, 0.6) -- $17.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Matt Moore (31, 0.5)
Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.3)
Felix Hernandez (34, 0.2)
Jhoulys Chacin (32, 0.1)
Clay Buchholz (35, 0.0)
Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)
Alex Wood (29, -0.1)
Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1)
Drew Pomeranz (31, -0.1)
Edinson Volquez (36, -0.1)
Marco Estrada (36, -0.2)
Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.2) -- $5 million club option for 2020 ($450,000 buyout)
Shelby Miller (29, -0.2)
Clayton Richard (36, -0.2)
Matt Harvey (31, -0.3)
Ervin Santana (37, -0.4)
Michael Wacha (28, -0.4)
Drew Smyly (29, -0.6)
Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8)
Edwin Jackson (36, -0.8)
Derek Holland (33, -0.9)

Relief pitchers

Aroldis Chapman (32 years old, 1.9 WAR) -- can opt out of 2 years, $30 million remaining on contract
Will Smith (30, 1.2)
Kenley Jansen (32, 1.0) -- can opt out of 2 years, $38 million remaining on contract
Yusmeiro Petit (35, 0.9) -- $5.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jake Diekman (33, 0.8) -- $5.75 mutual option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Will Harris (35, 0.7)
Brandon Kintzler (35, 0.7)
Sean Doolittle (33, 0.6) -- $6.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Yoshihisa Hirano (36, 0.6)
Matt Albers (37, 0.6)
Chris Martin (34, 0.6)
Collin McHugh (33, 0.5)
Oliver Perez (38, 0.5) -- $2.75 million club option becomes guaranteed with 55 appearances in 2019; increases to $3 million with 60 appearances in '19
Juan Nicasio (33, 0.4)
David Hernandez (35, 0.4)
Jeremy Jeffress (32, 0.4) -- $4.3 million club option for 2020
Brad Brach (34, 0.4)
Sergio Romo (37, 0.4)
David Phelps (33, 0.3) -- $1 million club option for 2020; club option becomes $3 million with 30 games pitched, $5 million with 40 games pitched, $7 million with 50 games pitched in '19.
Tony Sipp (36, 0.3)
Hector Rondon (32, 0.2)
Tommy Hunter (33, 0.2)
Cory Gearrin (34, 0.2)
Steve Cishek (34, 0.1)
Joe Smith (36, 0.1)
Fernando Rodney (43, 0.1)
Luke Gregerson (36, 0.1)
Shawn Kelley (36, 0.1) -- $2.5 million club option for 2020 ($250,000 buyout)
Aaron Loup (32, 0.1) — $2 million club option for 2020
Hector Santiago (32, 0.1)
Mike Dunn (35, 0.0)
Pedro Strop (35, -0.1)
Craig Stammen (36, -0.1)
Greg Holland (34, -0.1)
Jared Hughes (34, -0.1) -- $3 million club option for 2020 ($250,000 buyout)
Nate Jones (34, -0.1) -- $5.15 million club option for 2020 ($1.25 million buyout)
Tony Barnette (36, -0.1) -- $3 million club option for 2020
Tyler Thornburg (31, -0.1)
Arodys Vizcaino (29, -0.1)
Dan Otero (35, -0.2) -- $1.5 million club option for 2020 ($100,000 buyout)
Pat Neshek (39, -0.3) -- $7 million club option for 2020 ($750,000 buyout)
Seunghwan Oh (37, -0.3)
Trevor Rosenthal (30, -0.3)
Wily Peralta (31, -0.4)
Zach Duke (37, -0.4)
Jonny Venters (35, -0.4)
Tony Watson (35, -0.5) -- $2.5 million player option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Anthony Swarzak (34, -0.6)
Cody Allen (31, -0.7)
Adam Warren (32, -0.8) -- $2.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Brandon Morrow (35, N/A) -- $12 million club/vesting option for 2020 ($3 million buyout); hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Dellin Betances (32, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Josh Fields (34, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Bud Norris (35, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Darren O’Day (37, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Addison Reed (31, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Tony Cingrani (30, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Brian Duensing (37, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

I honestly don;t think the Orioles will sing folks off this list. I really think payroll goes down again. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

17. True.

True,  someone had already quoted me before I noticed the error.

[thezeroes]

5 hours ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Pardon my ignorance not doing the research, but is this collective free agent class seem older on average than previous ones?  Not many guys under the age of 30 at any position.  I say that and most of these guys are closer to my age.

Getting old is a *itch.

The list that was propagated did not have the Non-Tender players, it also does not have the DFA players that clubs will have when they protect their Rule 5 players.  The list is apt to double in size.

[Camden_yardbird]

5 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

It's up to 2020's Fab Five to carry the team's true talent level into the 60's, and then Messrs. Rutschman, Hall and Rodriguez to push 2021 towards .500 before you try and recapitulate the Vlad/Tejada offseason, hopefully getting the real big fish this time.

You realize the Tejada offseason looks a lot like what the Phillies did this off season which

1) given inflation over the last 20 years is not likely for the Orioles and 

2) only got them to .500

My argument is that the big ticket off season doesnt work, or hasnt for awhile.  Many of the modern best teams use an iterative approach. 

[El_Duderino]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

You realize the Tejada offseason looks a lot like what the Phillies did this off season which

1) given inflation over the last 20 years is not likely for the Orioles and 

2) only got them to .500

My argument is that the big ticket off season doesnt work, or hasnt for awhile.  Many of the modern best teams use an iterative approach. 

Phillies were .500 bc  Nola, Arietta, Elfin, Pivetta all had down years. Their FA pickups actually  had pretty solid seasons. Harper and Realmuto both hit, Mccuthen did while healthy. As a team they scored 100 more runs this year.