2020 Mock Offseason

[tntoriole]

Main upgrades will be staff throughout the organization and analytics and international and minor league coaching...Rule 5 draftees,, waiver wire pickups on make good deals before and during spring training and stockpiling whatever if any prospects ME can get for Villar, Alberto, Renato, Ruiz, Mancini...I think he will hold Givens to try to build his value if possible, same with Bundy and Cobb if healthy and flip them at deadline. 

No free agents this offseason. 

[Camden_yardbird]

8 hours ago, El_Duderino said:

Phillies were .500 bc  Nola, Arietta, Elfin, Pivetta all had down years. Their FA pickups actually  had pretty solid seasons. Harper and Realmuto both hit, Mccuthen did while healthy. As a team they scored 100 more runs this year.

Realmuto was a trade.  While their payroll only went up $40 million this year, pay increases to Harper and cutch are over $15 million.  I just dont see the Orioles ever having that type of off season.

[hoosiers]

As said in recent articles, there are no shortcuts.  This winter is Elias' first real opportunity to make hires across the organization for minor league positions, analytics and scouting.  Filling these positions is a major priority IMO.

Another major priority is to make strides to sign the bigger $ international free agents in a few years.  Not sure if that will be 2021, 2022 or 2023, but that day needs to arrive and when it arrives we need to remain competitive at the top of the market.  In this genre and similar to the first priority listed, we need to fill out all international scouting positions.  This is more of a year-round priority, but obviously more management time can be focused here in the offseason.

It would be nice to come up with the same finds this offseason as last with regards to guys like Ruiz, Nunez, Alberto.  There is only so much progress that can be made stealing away the guys not on another organization's 40 man, but we are a 54 win team with opportunities to offer talent that may be blocked elsewhere.  I look forward to the day when our 40 man is full and we don't participate in the Rule V draft, but we are not there now.  Hopefully, we acquire someone with some real potential.

IMO, the best way to create quick value is to sign a reclamation project free agent bullpen arm or two.    We could use the shoring up of our major league bullpen and such signings could have real value at the trade deadline.  

Trades - as much as I appreciate the production and attitude of veterans like Mancini and Villar this year, I would like to see them dealt for quality minor league pieces.  I would hold off on Bundy because I think some of his improvement has been real and want to see how he does to start 2020.  He seemed to be throwing strikes and avoiding the middle of the plate though some of the starts were against weaker teams.

Luck - if we had another unheralded prospect turn in a John Means style improvement this offseason and become a real part of our future, that would be incredible.

[Finisher]

25 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

IMO, the best way to create quick value is to sign a reclamation project free agent bullpen arm or two.    We could use the shoring up of our major league bullpen and such signings could have real value at the trade deadline.

Thought we should've done this last offseason. Competent relievers are always in high demand at the deadline. Don't care if we're tanking, rebuilding or whatever you need a few actual reliable relievers and maybe they bring back a semi decent prospect.

[sportsfan8703]

I think we’re going to see more bold moves from Elias. He got on the job late last year and it seemed like he didn’t do anything hastily. Even Adley Rutschman was a slam dunk. Now he’s cleaned house with scouts and coaches. We will have the #2 pick versus #1. I think we’ll see some trades this offseason. Villar and Givens. Overall, I think Elias has a better inventory off what we have in our system. 

[Tx Oriole]

On 10/1/2019 at 7:11 AM, Bahama O's Fan said:

Free agents, if this helps:

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal (31 years old, 3.9 WAR) -- $16 million mutual option for 2020 ($2.25 million buyout)
Jason Castro (33, 1.6)
Tyler Flowers (34, 1.6) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Robinson Chirinos (36, 1.5)
Travis d’Arnaud (31, 1.1)
Brian McCann (36, 1.0)
Alex Avila (33, 1.0)
Russell Martin (37, 0.8)
Austin Romine (31, 0.5)
Martin Maldonado (33, 0.1)
Yan Gomes (32, 0.0) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jonathan Lucroy (34, -0.2)
Francisco Cervelli (34, -0.2)
Matt Wieters (34, -0.3)
Nick Hundley (36, -0.3)
Chris Iannetta (37, -0.6)
Welington Castillo (33, -0.9) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo (30 years old, 3.1 WAR) -- $14.5 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Eric Thames (33, 1.3) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
David Freese (37, 1.2)
Jose Abreu (33, 0.7)
Justin Smoak (33, 0.6)
Matt Adams (31, 0.5) -- $4 million mutual option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Logan Forsythe (33, 0.5)
Mitch Moreland (34, 0.3)
Neil Walker (34, 0.3)
Ryan Zimmerman (35, -0.1) -- $18 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Yonder Alonso (33, -0.8)
Mark Reynolds (36, -0.8)
Steve Pearce (37, -0.9)
Lucas Duda (34, -0.9)

Second Basemen

Howie Kendrick (36 years old, 1.7 WAR)
Brian Dozier (33, 1.4)
Brock Holt (32, 1.1)
Jason Kipnis (33, 1.0) -- $16.5 million club option for 2020 ($2.5 million buyout)
Jonathan Schoop (28, 0.8)
Wilmer Flores (28, 0.6) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Brad Miller (30, 0.4)
Gordon Beckham (33, 0.2)
Ben Zobrist (39, 0.0)
Scooter Gennett (30, -0.2)
Starlin Castro (30, -0.2) -- $16 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Yangervis Solarte (32, -0.3)
Josh Harrison (32, -0.6)
Chris Owings (28, -0.8)
Eduardo Nuñez (33, -1.0)

Third Basemen

Anthony Rendon (30 years old, 5.0 WAR)
Josh Donaldson (34, 3.7)
Mike Moustakas (31, 2.7) -- $11 million mutual option for 2020 ($3 million buyout)
Asdrubal Cabrera (34, 1.0)
Todd Frazier (34, 0.9)
Pablo Sandoval (33, 0.9)
Jedd Gyorko (31, -0.2) -- $13 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Martin Prado (36, -0.9)
Jung Ho Kang (33, -1.0)

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus (31 years old, 1.7 WAR) -- can opt out of 3 years, $43 million remaining on contract
Freddy Galvis (30, 1.6) -- $5.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jose Iglesias (30, 1.5)
Didi Gregorius (30, 0.6)
Adeiny Hechavarria (31, 0.1)
Jordy Mercer (33, -0.1)

Left fielders

Brett Gardner (36 years old, 2.9 WAR)
Marcell Ozuna (29, 2.0)
Hunter Pence (37, 1.8)
Corey Dickerson (31, 0.7)
Alex Gordon (36, 0.7) -- $23 million mutual option for 2020 ($4 million buyout)
Gerardo Parra (33, 0.1)
Peter Bourjos (33, -0.5)
Carlos Gonzalez (34, -0.6)
Matt Kemp (35, -0.8)
Curtis Granderson (39, -1.1)

Center fielders

Starling Marte (31 years old, 2.6 WAR) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Jarrod Dyson (35, 1.5)
Billy Hamilton (29, 0.3) -- $7.5 million mutual option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Carlos Gomez (34, -0.1)
Juan Lagares (31, -0.9) -- $9.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Leonys Martin (32, -0.6)
Austin Jackson (33, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

Right fielders

Adam Eaton (31 years old, 2.2 WAR) -- $9.5 million club option for 2020 ($1.5 million buyout)
Kole Calhoun (32, 1.9) -- $14 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Nicholas Castellanos (28, 1.6)
Avisail Garcia (29, 1.6)
Jason Heyward (30, 1.6) -- can opt out of 4 years, $86 million remaining on contract if he has 550 plate appearances in 2019
Cameron Maybin (33, 1.4)
Yasiel Puig (29, 1.3)
Nick Markakis (36, 0.1) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Adam Jones (34, 0.3)
Melky Cabrera (35, -0.7)
Jon Jay (35, -0.8)
Lonnie Chisenhall (31, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

Designated hitters

Nelson Cruz (39 years old, 3.2 WAR) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($300,000 buyout)
J.D. Martinez (32, 2.6) -- can opt out of 3 years, $62.5 million remaining on contract
Edwin Encarnacion (37, 2.2) -- $20 million club option for 2020 ($5 million buyout)
Kendrys Morales (37, -0.8)
Hanley Ramirez (36, -0.2)
Mark Trumbo (34, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (29 years old, 4.5 WAR)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.1)
Stephen Strasburg (31, 4.0) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
Zack Wheeler (30, 3.6)
Jose Quintana (31, 3.1) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.0)
Jake Odorizzi (30, 2.8)
Kyle Gibson (32, 2.6)
Cole Hamels (36, 2.4)
Tanner Roark (33, 2.2)
Michael Pineda (30, 2.1)
Adam Wainwright (38, 1.9)
Wade Miley (33, 1.8)
Homer Bailey (34, 1.7)
Brett Anderson (32, 1.6)
Andrew Cashner (33, 1.6) -- $10 million option for 2020 vests with 340 IP combined over 2018-19; becomes player option with 360 IP over '18-19
Martin Perez (29, 1.6) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Yu Darvish (33, 1.5) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract
Ivan Nova (33, 1.4)
Julio Teheran (29, 1.4) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jason Vargas (37, 1.4) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Rick Porcello (31, 1.3)
Jake Arrieta (34, 1.0) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option
Gio Gonzalez (34, 0.8)
Rich Hill (40, 0.8)
Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout)
Corey Kluber (34, 0.6) -- $17.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Matt Moore (31, 0.5)
Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.3)
Felix Hernandez (34, 0.2)
Jhoulys Chacin (32, 0.1)
Clay Buchholz (35, 0.0)
Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)
Alex Wood (29, -0.1)
Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1)
Drew Pomeranz (31, -0.1)
Edinson Volquez (36, -0.1)
Marco Estrada (36, -0.2)
Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.2) -- $5 million club option for 2020 ($450,000 buyout)
Shelby Miller (29, -0.2)
Clayton Richard (36, -0.2)
Matt Harvey (31, -0.3)
Ervin Santana (37, -0.4)
Michael Wacha (28, -0.4)
Drew Smyly (29, -0.6)
Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8)
Edwin Jackson (36, -0.8)
Derek Holland (33, -0.9)

Relief pitchers

Aroldis Chapman (32 years old, 1.9 WAR) -- can opt out of 2 years, $30 million remaining on contract
Will Smith (30, 1.2)
Kenley Jansen (32, 1.0) -- can opt out of 2 years, $38 million remaining on contract
Yusmeiro Petit (35, 0.9) -- $5.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jake Diekman (33, 0.8) -- $5.75 mutual option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Will Harris (35, 0.7)
Brandon Kintzler (35, 0.7)
Sean Doolittle (33, 0.6) -- $6.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Yoshihisa Hirano (36, 0.6)
Matt Albers (37, 0.6)
Chris Martin (34, 0.6)
Collin McHugh (33, 0.5)
Oliver Perez (38, 0.5) -- $2.75 million club option becomes guaranteed with 55 appearances in 2019; increases to $3 million with 60 appearances in '19
Juan Nicasio (33, 0.4)
David Hernandez (35, 0.4)
Jeremy Jeffress (32, 0.4) -- $4.3 million club option for 2020
Brad Brach (34, 0.4)
Sergio Romo (37, 0.4)
David Phelps (33, 0.3) -- $1 million club option for 2020; club option becomes $3 million with 30 games pitched, $5 million with 40 games pitched, $7 million with 50 games pitched in '19.
Tony Sipp (36, 0.3)
Hector Rondon (32, 0.2)
Tommy Hunter (33, 0.2)
Cory Gearrin (34, 0.2)
Steve Cishek (34, 0.1)
Joe Smith (36, 0.1)
Fernando Rodney (43, 0.1)
Luke Gregerson (36, 0.1)
Shawn Kelley (36, 0.1) -- $2.5 million club option for 2020 ($250,000 buyout)
Aaron Loup (32, 0.1) — $2 million club option for 2020
Hector Santiago (32, 0.1)
Mike Dunn (35, 0.0)
Pedro Strop (35, -0.1)
Craig Stammen (36, -0.1)
Greg Holland (34, -0.1)
Jared Hughes (34, -0.1) -- $3 million club option for 2020 ($250,000 buyout)
Nate Jones (34, -0.1) -- $5.15 million club option for 2020 ($1.25 million buyout)
Tony Barnette (36, -0.1) -- $3 million club option for 2020
Tyler Thornburg (31, -0.1)
Arodys Vizcaino (29, -0.1)
Dan Otero (35, -0.2) -- $1.5 million club option for 2020 ($100,000 buyout)
Pat Neshek (39, -0.3) -- $7 million club option for 2020 ($750,000 buyout)
Seunghwan Oh (37, -0.3)
Trevor Rosenthal (30, -0.3)
Wily Peralta (31, -0.4)
Zach Duke (37, -0.4)
Jonny Venters (35, -0.4)
Tony Watson (35, -0.5) -- $2.5 million player option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Anthony Swarzak (34, -0.6)
Cody Allen (31, -0.7)
Adam Warren (32, -0.8) -- $2.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Brandon Morrow (35, N/A) -- $12 million club/vesting option for 2020 ($3 million buyout); hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Dellin Betances (32, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Josh Fields (34, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Bud Norris (35, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Darren O’Day (37, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Addison Reed (31, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Tony Cingrani (30, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019
Brian Duensing (37, N/A) -- hasn't appeared in MLB in 2019

For 1st baseman I’d play Mancini there. As for the rest of the team. I just don’t know enough about the players to say. 

[jerios55]

So I'd look at this from a different angle...

C- Sisco, Severino, Wynns.  Not world beaters, but holding the postion while Rutschman develops.  If value can be had maybe they change, but I don't think they spend here and evaluate if one of these guys can be a solid backup.

1B- Mancini, Davis, Moustcastle (?)- I'm sure they have a wish/dream to release Davis but it still seems unlikely based on quotes.  Even if he were gone, I think this spot goes to Mancini or Mountcastle, so again no money to spend here.

2B/SS- I'm putting these together because we have a few options with Villar/Martin/Alberto/Wilkerson(?).  I agree with those that said Martin will likely get some time in AAA, depending on what happens with Villar.  We added several SS options through Rule V and waiver claims.  Maybe they get a more established guy here, but the collect a bunch of dudes and see what sticks method of last year doesn't seem to change IMO. 

3B- Ruiz/Nunez/Alberto- tricky here, because each seems to have their issues here.  However, the options listed under 3B in the FA list are going to be high numbers or have similar holes in their game.  Maybe another Rule V/Waiver claim to look at competition, but I don't see a change this year.  If they trade Villar and want Alberto at 3B more, maybe it changes the 2B/SS conversation.

DH- Nunez/Moustcastle/Mancini.Sisco... They still have some limited fielders that can hit, that don't cost much.  Don't see a change here.

OF- Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mancini- I like the youth here and know others are somewhat close.  Definitely doubt they spend here.

SP- There could be a Karns-like signing, but I think we start with a Bundy, Cobb (if actually healthy...), Means, Wojo, Akin rotation with some of our 'starters' from this year as well.

RP- It would be nice to get more help here, but they tried out a few guys in the later part of the season that get continued chances.  Some guys that were starting, will likely get tried out with a bump to bullpen.  I don't see a $$ signing here.

So long version, I agree that the FA just doesn't match what it seems is needed for next year.  Yes it'd be nice to sign a Harper, Manny, Rendon none expect it.  Signing a mid-level at best guy for incremental improvement doesn't fit the front office MO.  Reclimation projects like Karns, wildcard/lotto tickets like Alberto/Severino, or Rule V like Martin.  For additions, I don't see why that would change this offseason.

[jamalshw]

If it were me, I'd explore the trade market for Mancini and Villar. I expect Mancini's value to be greater to the Orioles than anyone else, but Villar may have some value after his strong second half. If you can move him for anything of future value, I would make the move and then sign one of Galvis, Iglesias, or even Hechavarria to fill in at SS.

Other than that, I would look for potential value plays on the mount. Michael Wacha might be one. Alex Wood, maybe?

[Tx Oriole]

44 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

So I'd look at this from a different angle...

C- Sisco, Severino, Wynns.  Not world beaters, but holding the postion while Rutschman develops.  If value can be had maybe they change, but I don't think they spend here and evaluate if one of these guys can be a solid backup.

1B- Mancini, Davis, Moustcastle (?)- I'm sure they have a wish/dream to release Davis but it still seems unlikely based on quotes.  Even if he were gone, I think this spot goes to Mancini or Mountcastle, so again no money to spend here.

2B/SS- I'm putting these together because we have a few options with Villar/Martin/Alberto/Wilkerson(?).  I agree with those that said Martin will likely get some time in AAA, depending on what happens with Villar.  We added several SS options through Rule V and waiver claims.  Maybe they get a more established guy here, but the collect a bunch of dudes and see what sticks method of last year doesn't seem to change IMO. 

3B- Ruiz/Nunez/Alberto- tricky here, because each seems to have their issues here.  However, the options listed under 3B in the FA list are going to be high numbers or have similar holes in their game.  Maybe another Rule V/Waiver claim to look at competition, but I don't see a change this year.  If they trade Villar and want Alberto at 3B more, maybe it changes the 2B/SS conversation.

DH- Nunez/Moustcastle/Mancini.Sisco... They still have some limited fielders that can hit, that don't cost much.  Don't see a change here.

OF- Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mancini- I like the youth here and know others are somewhat close.  Definitely doubt they spend here.

SP- There could be a Karns-like signing, but I think we start with a Bundy, Cobb (if actually healthy...), Means, Wojo, Akin rotation with some of our 'starters' from this year as well.

RP- It would be nice to get more help here, but they tried out a few guys in the later part of the season that get continued chances.  Some guys that were starting, will likely get tried out with a bump to bullpen.  I don't see a $$ signing here.

So long version, I agree that the FA just doesn't match what it seems is needed for next year.  Yes it'd be nice to sign a Harper, Manny, Rendon none expect it.  Signing a mid-level at best guy for incremental improvement doesn't fit the front office MO.  Reclimation projects like Karns, wildcard/lotto tickets like Alberto/Severino, or Rule V like Martin.  For additions, I don't see why that would change this offseason.

I hope the O’s cut all ties with Davis. 

[jerios55]

5 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I hope the O’s cut all ties with Davis. 

It's want vs expectation.

I know that most (probably all) are ready to move on, but signs aren't currently pointing that way.  Quotes from Elias/Davis just seem that it will continue at least through spring training.

There is at least another year that is definitively evaluate/build, where winning will not be the primary focus.  Building development programs, adding players through Rule V/waivers/draft/trades, adding to analytics/scouting/coaching as Elias has a full off-season.  This year will likely be similar to last, just a full version with more time to make things his way.  That's a short version of what I was posting above.  I see nothing pointing to a drastic change to overall plan for the 2020 season.

I totally get that even with that, people don't want him adding a level of loser mentality and/or blocking players from getting evaluation time.  As long as he's a good teammate and doesn't whine when he sees more bench time, I also think he improves his chances of staying on the roster.  Not ideal, but I think people need to accept the likelihood. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

WAR

Bundy   2.3

Givens  0.6 

Villar   4.0

Keep in mind I think we should trade all three for as many assets in 2023 as possible.  

Villar should 100% get traded. His value won’t get any higher.  He can play 2B/SS.  Switch hitting, vet bat, with some speed.  You can plug him into the top of the order. There’s no point in keeping him.

Givens is 50/50 to be traded.  I think Elias and the league knows what Givens is.  He’s a good MR/SU guy that can have real success in a good situation.  Another year of overexposing him and running him into the ground, isn’t going to help his value.  Unfortunately, that’s the state of our pen.  I don’t see the pen situation allowing Givens to build anymore value then he presently has.  Some smart team will get a real good piece here for not that much, but Givens isn’t worth anything to us over the next 2 years.

Bundy, I think the book is out on him as well.  Again, we have a terrible rotation and bullpen.  So that means no opportunities to give him an extra days rest and our bullpen won’t support him much.  Again, a smart team, that is good, will be able to maximize his results.  Extra days of rest.  Pulling him after 5 IP, NL, bigger ballparks, weaker lineups, etc....  

What are the real contributions these players are going to make over the next two years on teams that will win 50-60 games?  I’d rather us load up on assets that will be ready to contribute in 2023 and beyond.  

It’s not a fire sale.  It’s actually a good thing that these guys are even trade-able.  Maybe by some miracle Cobb gets us the Cashner return one day.

Enjoy the rebuild.  We’ll actually have a really fun lineup next year.  

 

 

Edited October 2, 2019 by sportsfan8703