2019 #4 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

[atomic]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I must've missed that. Where was that reported? Thanks.

Sun article yesterday. He said he was too old to change. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, John Welch said:

The Orioles and Davis have discussed sending him to a hitting school, but that probably won’t happen.

“We’ve talked about it,” he said. “They basically left it in my hands. They said, ‘If this something you want to do, we’ll do everything we can to help.’ I’m 33. I’ll be 34 in March … I’m on the backside of my career. I don’t think there’s going to be a massive swing overhaul where I’m changing mechanically. That’s not going to happen.

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2019/11/05/davis-3-million-donation-want-can-help-people/

I've seen a quote that is a little more clear than the above but can't find it right now. 

Thanks, that does sound like Chris Davis. Hopefully that will be information Elias will be able to use next spring when he needs to convince the Angelos brothers to let him release him. If Davis really feels this way, he should retire. He's basically saying he's not going to get better. Now, I don't think Davis has it in him to walk away from the money owed him, but he would, he would at least gain some respect in my eyes if he did.

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Thanks, that does sound like Chris Davis. Hopefully that will be information Elias will be able to use next spring when he needs to convince the Angelos brothers to let him release him. If Davis really feels this way, he should retire. He's basically saying he's not going to get better. Now, I don't think Davis has it in him to walk away from the money owed him, but he would, he would at least gain some respect in my eyes if he did.

Exactly. He's saying he isn't going to get better.

I don't understand that from a competitor. He's been on the bench. He's had pitiful years. And he's accepting it. There's no fight to change it.

I understand a guy not walking away from the money. Work out some deal to defer more of it, walk away gracefully with ALL your money, ok, I get that. But why come back to play when you've reconciled yourself to the idea you aren't going to improve?

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, John Welch said:

Exactly. He's saying he isn't going to get better.

I don't understand that from a competitor. He's been on the bench. He's had pitiful years. And he's accepting it. There's no fight to change it.

I understand a guy not walking away from the money. Work out some deal to defer more of it, walk away gracefully with ALL your money, ok, I get that. But why come back to play when you've reconciled yourself to the idea you aren't going to improve?

You will not get any arguments from me. No one really thinks Davis can improve at this point, not even Davis is appears. So I guess he has to decide for himself is worth the money to cash those big checks when you know you are not earning it any longer. I'm sure he's thinking he was worth more than he was being paid during his big years so this evens it out, but it's just honestly embarrassing at this point as he continues to destroy whatever legacy he has left.

He has to have enough money for him and his family to be well off for several generations. The question is at this point, does he even care about his legacy, fans, teammates, coaches or organization more than packing his stuffed bank account even more.

Ok, that's it with Davis talk from me. This is Mountcastle's thread. I think he will be fun if he's battling Austin Hays for rookie of the year honors next year. 

[LookinUp]

Not sure if it's posted elsewhere, but I heard Elias on the radio last night saying Davis was on some programs and, while he probably wouldn't get back to what he used to be, they expected him to be better than the last 2-3 years. (paraphrase)

So he's doing something in coordination with the front office. 

[7Mo]

27 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Not sure if it's posted elsewhere, but I heard Elias on the radio last night saying Davis was on some programs and, while he probably wouldn't get back to what he used to be, they expected him to be better than the last 2-3 years. (paraphrase)

So he's doing something in coordination with the front office. 

Does this summarize what you heard?

I couldn’t let Elias leave the building without asking him again about Chris Davis. The offseason plan and whether there’s anything assured beyond his arrival in camp.

“He’s working. Without going into details, we’ve got a lot of things that he’s working on this winter. I don’t necessarily expect for that to get him back to the best seasons he’s ever had in his career, but we do think he can be better than what he has been the last two or three years.

“It’s a very frustrating situation for him, for the coaches, for everybody involved, but the reality is we have him under contract and it’s a significant contract, a significant commitment that the organization’s made to him. From my standpoint we don’t look at that lightly and we’re going to do everything in our power to get the most out of him that we can. He’s a big part of the team, a big part of the team’s history, a big part of the community, as he just demonstrated. And that’s kind of where we’re at with it.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/more-from-mike-elias-on-hot-stove-show.html

[LookinUp]

Yep. That's the transcript of what I heard for sure. I think I literally turned the radio on at the beginning and off an the end.

[Pickles]

20 hours ago, atomic said:

If Mountcastle played at DH every game his WAR would have been higher.  In the Minors at every level Mountcastle was younger than Mancini by a couple of years and out hit him.  I would definitely rank Mountcastle above Hall as a prospect.

I don't want to get too hung up on the specific WAR number because I think it is flawed.

I just pointing out the very high offensive bar a guy has to surpass if he essentially is an average defensive first baseman.

[Pickles]

20 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I would be utterly shocked if Mountcastle "pulled a Sisco". Then again, I had concerns about Sisco's bat when he K rate started going up and his struggles in AAA.

I don't see it happening either, but the possibility is not non-existent.

Sisco showed some warning signs in AAA for sure.  But it's not as if that season was awful.  And up to that point he'd hit like 320/400 through the minor leagues at young ages.  And gotten really good scouting reports.

And here he is.  With a 203 career batting average.

It's hard to hit 300 consistently in the bigs.

Another guy that has been in the news lately is also relevant.  Howie Kendrick.  Drafted out of high school, he hit in the 360s over 1500 abs in the minors.  Scouts said he would win batting titles.

Howie Kendrick has never hit 300 in a season in which he has qualified for the batting title.

It's hard to hit 300 consistently in the bigs.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't want to get too hung up on the specific WAR number because I think it is flawed.

I just pointing out the very high offensive bar a guy has to surpass if he essentially is an average defensive first baseman.

How high is it, really?    The league hit .800 OPS at 1B last year, 111 OPS+.   .771 and 112 in 2018.    If you believe in Mountcastle’s bat, he should be able to exceed that.

For LF, the numbers are .790 and 108 for 2019, .765 and 110 for 2018.

 

 

[atomic]

On 11/9/2019 at 7:58 AM, Pickles said:

I don't want to get too hung up on the specific WAR number because I think it is flawed.

I just pointing out the very high offensive bar a guy has to surpass if he essentially is an average defensive first baseman.

I am not sure what you are saying.  Mancini didn't hit as well as Mountcastle in the minors.  If Mancini played first base all season he would have had over 4 WAR.  Even at 3.3 WAR if all your position players averaged 3.3 WAR that would be 30 WAR from position players alone.   If you added 25 WAR from your pitchers you would have a 103 win team.   If a player can average 3 WAR a season that is an above average player.   You are talking an Adam Jones or Nick Markakis type player.    In the Orioles division winning 2014 team they had 30 WAR from their position players.  

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

I am not sure what you are saying.  Mancini didn't hit as well as Mountcastle in the minors.

Mancini did outhit Mountcastle at AA by quite a lot, albeit at a much older age.  He had a 1.003 OPS there to Mountcastle’s .750.    Overall Mancini had an .829 OPS in the minors compared to Mountcastle’s .799.   And even though Mountcastle’s raw numbers in the International League were better, they each had an OPS+ of 111 there.   So, accounting for the change in conditions they were about equal at that level.    The main reason to expect Mountcastle to be the better major league hitter is that he was younger at every stop and yet still did very well.    

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mancini did outhit Mountcastle at AA by quite a lot, albeit at a much older age.  He had a 1.003 OPS there to Mountcastle’s .750.    Overall Mancini had an .829 OPS in the minors compared to Mountcastle’s .799.   And even though Mountcastle’s raw numbers in the International League were better, they each had an OPS+ of 111 there.   So, accounting for the change in conditions they were about equal at that level.    The main reason to expect Mountcastle to be the better major league hitter is that he was younger at every stop and yet still did very well.    

Exactly, Manini was 23-24 in AA and Mountcastle was 21.

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mancini did outhit Mountcastle at AA by quite a lot, albeit at a much older age.  He had a 1.003 OPS there to Mountcastle’s .750.    Overall Mancini had an .829 OPS in the minors compared to Mountcastle’s .799.   And even though Mountcastle’s raw numbers in the International League were better, they each had an OPS+ of 111 there.   So, accounting for the change in conditions they were about equal at that level.    The main reason to expect Mountcastle to be the better major league hitter is that he was younger at every stop and yet still did very well.    

At some point these Mountcastle "doubters" are going to realize they did not account for age vs level and did not put enough emphasis on the ability to hit for average.

[ChuckS]

49 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

At some point these Mountcastle "doubters" are going to realize they did not account for age vs level and did not put enough emphasis on the ability to hit for average.

It's the batting average/OBP separation.  Just a handful of hitters at the major league level that make that work.  And very few at a bat first position 1B/LF.  I think he'll be useful I just have doubts of him ever being an above average major leaguer unless he improves the walk rate a bit.