Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?

[DirtyBird]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

What do you think the reason is?

Do you think they believe he will provide more value than the $560k player that would replace him?

Do you think they believe that fans would be angry if they released Davis?

They made a bad investment and have too much pride to cut it loose.

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Your obvious anger is impeding your ability to try to be understanding of other perspectives.

My dude, you said in the other thread that I wasn't paying attention. Your own ability to understand other's perspectives isn't exactly shining through.

[MurphDogg]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

They made a bad investment and have too much pride to cut it loose.

It's a business. How can they simultaneously have the pride to have people hate them for dumping the best player on the team for nothing while not having the pride to dump a sunk cost that they weren't even responsible for signing?

[Spl51]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

My dude, you said in the other thread that I wasn't paying attention. Your own ability to understand other's perspectives isn't exactly shining through.

Is this the "no I'm not, you are" defense?

I wasn't the one who invalidated the other perspective, I was just responding to that being said of mine. I admitted that I enjoyed watching Villar a lot, he was severely underrated. Where you find entertainment in watching baseball, and how hard you weigh them, was my only argument.

[NCRaven]

If Villar is ultimately traded, I’ll change my mind. Until then, I hate it.  And if they lose him for nothing, I’ll hate it more.

[Guest]

Since there isn't an indifferent option, I voted to defer to Elias judgement and think Dan Szymbroski's Twitter takes  are dead on  :
 

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Interesting risk the O's are taking in waiving a very good player in Villar. That's a risky force-the-hand type of situation to set up. It could end up well, but it's the kind of thing that can backfire notoriously.

 

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It's likely that teams are playing hard-to-get, hemming and hawing about Villar's arbitration figure. I suspect the O's are hoping it forces someone to stop pretending Villar doesn't have surplus value at 1/10 or so.

I personally would've tendered him a contract for 2020 but as I mentioned in another thread about Villar I don't think his value is much different than it was on July 31. Nor do I think tendering or non-tendering him will equal up to making a difference in the grand schemes of things in 2020 or beyond. Though I would be interested in hearing the rationale in the decision making of this decision. Will the money be reallocated in player development, scouting, international, and hires? Are they looking at improving the defense up the middle and signing a guy like Yomber Sanchez? Our Dominican Summer facilities I imagine need a lot of money to be up to par of the level of say the big players. Texas just opened a brand new $12.5M facility. I'm not saying to spend that level of cash, but I wonder if some savings go into improvements in our facilities?
 

 

 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

I'm so very, very sick of the argument that so-and-so won't be here for the next competitive Orioles team.

Yes, it becomes self-fulfilling at a certain point. How are we ever going to get competitive if we get rid of controlled players with positive WAR?

[section18]

I think Elias thinks he is smarter than everyone else. Sorry to have to say this but I have been thinking this way for more than a few weeks. If he dumps Bundy and it looks like he is getting closer to dealing him it better be for something decent. If he cannot trade Villar it's because he lacks the skills to trade with another team.  It's not Villar's fault. The Red Sox, Angels, Cubs and others will quickly line up to sign him next week. I would like to hear what Dempsey and Palmer think of this move. If Weaver was still managing this team he would be in Elias's office yelling at him at the top of his lungs. Maybe worse! 

The Winter Meetings are in San Diego December 8th -12th at the Hilton Bayfront Hotel.  Maybe there will be a sell off. It's interesting the due date is December 6th for renewing season tickets. Two days before the meetings. .Don't renew and wait to see what happens in San Diego. They always give ticket renewal extensions.

Do they have season ticket people they want to get rid of or want to fail so they don't have to pay them salary increases or bonuses based on ticket sales? I don't know why anyone would renew if this move becomes official. My ticket rep in todays email says they expect several younger players to have an impact in 2020 and names Hays, Mountcastle, Akin and more.

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You think?

I was enjoying a nice sunset in Siesta Key when i got a text from a friend about this news. Almost ruined my night! I've been 100% supportive of Elias since he took over, but this is my first shot across the bow from him. Is this team going to be the Rays now where we expect to lose our good players? Is this organization really in a situation where they can't pay Villar around $10 million a year? I don't see why any fan would pay a dime to watch this team is this is what they think about their fans.

I spent two thanksgivings in Siesta Key.  Great time to be there.  Enjoy your time there.

[Chavez Ravine]

My general feeling about Villar not being here next year is a shrug. He was solid, and occasionally made some awesome plays. I liked him. Is that worth the money he will get paid? I can see why the O’s don’t think so. I suppose the more pertinent question is whether the O’s with Villar are substantially more watchable than the O’s without Villar? Shrug.

[wildcard]

Here is the logic I have come up with for the DFAing Villar. 

Elias did not want to pay 10m for a 736 OPS player.   That is Villar's career OPS. Yes, he had a good 2nd half but his 1st half OPS was 747.     It is probably more likely that Villar puts up a 736 OPS  in 2020 than the 792 OPS he had in 2019.

And he is not a good middle field player.  He is a high error guy.   Its really his offense that drives his value.   

No other team wanted to make the 10m gamble that he who repeat 2019.

Remember this is he 2nd time that a team Elias worked for has let Villar go by trade or DFA.

To me this is a Jim Johnson move.   Johnson was due 10m in arbitration and the O's traded him for basically nothing.  And it was one season after he was an All-Star and he has back to back 50 save seasons.  And the O's were contenders back then.

Wilkerson/Alberto/ Valaika  can play as good a defensive 2B as Villar.      Elias made it clear he did not want Villar at SS by saying he would acquire a veteran SS.

The O's are adding offensive players next season in Hays and Mountcastle.   Elias may be thinking that its better for the team to be strong up the middle defensively.    That could help the pitching.

What do you think of that argument?

 

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is the logic I have come up with for the DFAing Villar. 

Elias did not want to pay 10m for a 736 OPS player.   That is Villar's career OPS. Yes, he had a good 2nd half but his 1st half OPS was 747.     It is probably more likely that Villar puts up a 736 OPS  in 2020 than the 792 OPS he had in 2019.

And he is not a good middle field player.  He is a high error guy.   Its really his offense that drives his value.   

No other team wanted to make the 10m gamble that he who repeat 2019.

Remember this is he 2nd time that a team Elias worked for has let Villar go by trade or DFA.

To me this is a Jim Johnson move.   Johnson was due 10m in arbitration and the O's traded him for basically nothing.  And it was one season after he was an All-Star and he has back to back 50 save seasons.  And the O's were contenders back then.

Wilkerson/Alberto/ Valaika  can play as good a defensive 2B as Villar.      Elias made it clear he did not want Villar at SS by saying he would acquire a veteran SS.

The O's are adding offensive players next season in Hays and Mountcastle.   Elias may be thinking that its better for the team to be strong up the middle defensively.    That could help the pitching.

What do you think of that argument?

 

That’s the correct argument. One step further... Elias felt the return wasn’t worth it to tender him and then try and trade him.  That return might have still been zero.

We got our answers. 

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

This is an awful descion by the Orioles. They already have a low payroll and now they are DFAing one their best players because his Arbitration number? This is a middle finger to their fans. We all understand this is a rebuild, but you dont just release players who are good. This is an awful competitive and fan move. It's actually quite embarrassing to do this as well as you just made yourself the laughing stock of baseball.

This is a major warning sign that Elias is not being given the money to put out even a respectable product. If they had traded him I would have gotten the move, but to just DFA him after the year he had is embarrassing. Its embarrasing to baseball and slap on the face to their fans, even the ones who understand they are in a rebuild. 

I have been completely onboarding with what Elias has been doing with this rebuild until this move. I'm now embarrassed as a fan and can give no reasonable excuse for this move as a person who has covered this team for 24 years.

Tony .... I'm with you! The Orioles are now truly the laughing stock of baseball.

Only the Orioles would have trouble moving a player that had a 4 WAR season last year.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, it becomes self-fulfilling at a certain point. How are we ever going to get competitive if we get rid of controlled players with positive WAR?

Especially if we do so and get little or nothing in return.

[Roll Tide]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is the logic I have come up with for the DFAing Villar. 

Elias did not want to pay 10m for a 736 OPS player.   That is Villar's career OPS. Yes, he had a good 2nd half but his 1st half OPS was 747.     It is probably more likely that Villar puts up a 736 OPS  in 2020 than the 792 OPS he had in 2019.

And he is not a good middle field player.  He is a high error guy.   Its really his offense that drives his value.   

No other team wanted to make the 10m gamble that he who repeat 2019.

Remember this is he 2nd time that a team Elias worked for has let Villar go by trade or DFA.

To me this is a Jim Johnson move.   Johnson was due 10m in arbitration and the O's traded him for basically nothing.  And it was one season after he was an All-Star and he has back to back 50 save seasons.  And the O's were contenders back then.

Wilkerson/Alberto/ Valaika  can play as good a defensive 2B as Villar.      Elias made it clear he did not want Villar at SS by saying he would acquire a veteran SS.

The O's are adding offensive players next season in Hays and Mountcastle.   Elias may be thinking that its better for the team to be strong up the middle defensively.    That could help the pitching.

What do you think of that argument?

 

You will know soon enough! If no other team claims him you might be close. I'd be shocked if no one puts in a claim.

It still makes the team the laughing stock, stinks of cheap, and the incompetence of a rookie GM thats in over his head!