Is Mouncastle as good a hitter as Mancini was prior to his rookie year?

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I can’t debate you on this.    I’ve seen probably 20-40 film highlights of good Mountcastle at bats, usually from some mediocre angle, and that’s just not something I can base a judgment on.    Meanwhile I’ve seen Mancini bat hundreds if not thousands of times.    

I’ll only add that plate discipline and pitch recognition are also important regardless of bat speed and loft.    Especially at the major league level against the best pitchers in the world.    All indications are that Mountcastle’s tools will play at the big league level, but just how good he turns out to be will depend a lot on these factors.   
 

Fortunately Mountcastle will not be facing the best pitchers in the world every night.  There are plenty in the league that do not fit that description on any give night.

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t say that because it was obvious.  I quoted interloper’s post about their comparative stats at age 22, and I mentioned that Mountcastle would be two years younger this year than Mancini was in his rookie year.    So, I think the age point was covered.    

That’s also why I focused on short term vs. long term.    Mountcastle’s age gives him more time to develop and reach his peak, which is why I like his ceiling better in the long term.    In the short term, though, I think you need to take into account that Mancini had a much smoother rookie transition than most players do.    I think most of us, even people who were high on Mancini, were pleasantly surprised by how easily he adjusted that year.    It’s possible that Mountcastle will too, but that’s asking a lot, even if you like Mountcastle better in the long run.   
 

Well ok then. Some times you gotta remember that I may not have read the whole thread. Feisty today aren't we?

I have little doubt Mountcastle is going to hit in the major league and hit well. He may have a bit of an adjustment period, but he has better tools than Mancini. Mancini though had a much better plan at the plate, and that's what will decide whether Mountcastle reaches his offensive potential or not. Will he develop that plan at the plate to know what the pitchers are trying to do to him and not solely rely on his amazing hand eye coordination and bat speed? 

If he does, he will be an All-Star level bat.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Unfortunately Mountcastle will not be facing the best pitchers in the world every night. There are plenty in the league that do not fit the description on any give night.

I’d say that’s fortunate, not unfortunate.   

However, as a general statement, Mountcastle will see much better pitching in the majors than in the minors.    
 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’d say that’s fortunate, not unfortunate.   

However, as a general statement, Mountcastle will see much better pitching in the majors than in the minors.    
 

Yes, I changed it.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well ok then. Some times you gotta remember that I may not have read the whole thread. Feisty today aren't we?

I have little doubt Mountcastle is going to hit in the major league and hit well. He may have a bit of an adjustment period, but he has better tools than Mancini. Mancini though had a much better plan at the plate, and that's what will decide whether Mountcastle reaches his offensive potential or not. Will he develop that plan at the plate to know what the pitchers are trying to do to him and not solely rely on his amazing hand eye coordination and bat speed? 

If he does, he will be an All-Star level bat.

Yes, feisty.   I didn’t sleep well last night.   But we are in total agreement on Mountcastle, which is not surprising since I always rely heavily on your scouting reports on players, having no scouting skills of my own and no real good looks at the player anyway.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

You don't need any looks. Just listen to milb radio and wait for the sound of the bat.  

You don't think certain players hit balls that have a distinct sound off the bat?

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think I've been unfair in my criticism.  He's a poor defensive player who bats right handed.  That limits his value.  I don't think he will bring back much in trade due to those factors.

If it comes to pass that Mountcastle isn't superior at the bat or in the field to Mancini I'll feel the same way about him.  I think Mountcastle has the potential be be superior defensively because of his past history.

Edit- Keep in mind I'm against gaming Mountcastle's service clock since I don't think he will be the caliber of player that warrants such action.  Obviously I'm not predicting stardom.

That's fair.

I will say, and I think you'll probably disagree with this, that I think Mancini becomes a much more attractive player when he's at 1B. I'm not sure Mountcastle has that position on the field where he feels like a more attractive player, but that's an unknown so far because we just haven't seen him in the outfield yet.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

That's fair.

I will say, and I think you'll probably disagree with this, that I think Mancini becomes a much more attractive player when he's at 1B. I'm not sure Mountcastle has that position on the field where he feels like a more attractive player, but that's an unknown so far because we just haven't seen him in the outfield yet.

I'll agree he's better suited to first, or DH.  I'll also agree that we don't know about Mountcastle yet.  That is one of the reasons I was annoyed he didn't get called up last year, I think it could have really aided his development.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You don't need any looks. Just listen to milb radio and wait for the sound of the bat.  

 

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think certain players hit balls that have a distinct sound off the bat?

 

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Bat speed and the sweet spot of the bat should make a similar sound assuming same bat speed and same wood.  So the sound of Renato Nunez and Mountcastle should be pretty much the same under those circumstances. 

I assume the initial post was intended to be a lighthearted poke.    Obviously, some hits are louder than others, and some players make good contact more often than others.    Still, I certainly wouldn’t want to judge hitters primarily by listening to the sound of the ball on minor league radio.   It can certainly make an impression.  

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, feisty.   I didn’t sleep well last night.   But we are in total agreement on Mountcastle, which is not surprising since I always rely heavily on your scouting reports on players, having no scouting skills of my own and no real good looks at the player anyway.   

Been there my friend. 

As usual, the community is making a lot of good points and I understand the concerns by some. Defensively, I don't think he was challenged much in LF and we won't know for sure until we see the statcast numbers on him out there. Arm wise, he did well throwing to second and third but struggles on making the throw home which could be an issue at times. 

Saying that, I'd put him in LF once his controllability requirement is met, move Santander to RF, and Mancini to 1B. 

This would be my main defensive alingment once he's up.

1B - Mancini
2B - Alberto
SS- Iglesius
3B- Nunez/Ruiz on occasion
LF - Mountcastle
CF- Hays
RF - Santander
C - Severino/Sisco
DH - Stewart/Smith/Nunez 

In my lineup Davis would be released, but I'm starting to think this is not going to happen due to the Orioles hoping the off chance he does the right thing and retire or gets hurt and they can recoup his money through insurance.

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It was his lack of plate discipline which is pretty laughable given how little he said about Schoop and Jones having the same issue.

Eh. I'm not of the mind that Schoop and AJ's plate discipline issues at the majors disqualify a manager from caring about other developing players' plate discipline. I'd rather he care about one, rather than none. Further, AJ and Schoop both had clearly superior walk rates to Mountcastle during their respective minor league tenures. I'd say it's fair to put more focus on the developing guy in this case.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam-jones/6368/stats?position=OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jonathan-schoop/11265/stats?position=2B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-mountcastle/sa874734/stats?position=3B/SS

[Frobby]

One of the things I enjoy as an OH regular is following our minor leaguers in the box scores for years, getting an impression of them from scouting reports from Tony and others (either people from OH or elsewhere), and then finally getting to see them for myself when they reach the majors and seeing how my impressions do or do not match what I see.  And there’s nothing I like better than when a player exceeds expectations.

Another thing I really enjoy is watching players who get better with experience, and overcome bumps in the road.

On both these fronts, I give you Trey Mancini.    Feast here on his final prospect ranking on OH, which ranked him no. 11 after the 2016 season.     Every strength mentioned has been confirmed, most of the questions resolved in his favor, most of the (offensive) weaknesses eliminated or at least minimized.    You just have to love what he’s been able to become:  

Let’s hope Mountcastle follows a similar trajectory.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Eh. I'm not of the mind that Schoop and AJ's plate discipline issues at the majors disqualify a manager from caring about other developing players' plate discipline. I'd rather he care about one, rather than none. Further, AJ and Schoop both had clearly superior walk rates to Mountcastle during their respective minor league tenures. I'd say it's fair to put more focus on the developing guy in this case.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam-jones/6368/stats?position=OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jonathan-schoop/11265/stats?position=2B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-mountcastle/sa874734/stats?position=3B/SS

My point was that Buck was a lot more eager to lay into his non tenured players.  Like how he got on Kim about his fitness in the media but not Tillman.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One of the things I enjoy as an OH regular is following our minor leaguers in the box scores for years, getting an impression of them from scouting reports from Tony and others (either people from OH or elsewhere), and then finally getting to see them for myself when they reach the majors and seeing how my impressions do or do not match what I see.  And there’s nothing I like better than when a player exceeds expectations.

Another thing I really enjoy is watching players who get better with experience, and overcome bumps in the road.

On both these fronts, I give you Trey Mancini.    Feast here on his final prospect ranking on OH, which ranked him no. 11 after the 2016 season.     Every strength mentioned has been confirmed, most of the questions resolved in his favor, most of the (offensive) weaknesses eliminated or at least minimized.    You just have to love what he’s been able to become:  

Let’s hope Mountcastle follows a similar trajectory.   

Mancini has off the charts baseball IQ that allows him to maximize his abilities. He really has one of the best plans at the plate that I've seen from an Orioles prospect, maybe ever. 

[wildcard]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Been there my friend. 

As usual, the community is making a lot of good points and I understand the concerns by some. Defensively, I don't think he was challenged much in LF and we won't know for sure until we see the statcast numbers on him out there. Arm wise, he did well throwing to second and third but struggles on making the throw home which could be an issue at times. 

Saying that, I'd put him in LF once his controllability requirement is met, move Santander to RF, and Mancini to 1B. 

This would be my main defensive alingment once he's up.

1B - Mancini
2B - Alberto
SS- Iglesius
3B- Nunez/Ruiz on occasion
LF - Mountcastle
CF- Hays
RF - Santander
C - Severino/Sisco
DH - Stewart/Smith/Nunez 

In my lineup Davis would be released, but I'm starting to think this is not going to happen due to the Orioles hoping the off chance he does the right thing and retire or gets hurt and they can recoup his money through insurance.

I look at this another way.    I think Mountcastle will show in ST that he is about as slow as Mancini in the outfield and has less experience.   With Diaz coming in a year which will make the outfield Santander/Hays/ Diaz  there is no use to go through the pain of trying to make Mountcastle into an outfielder.  Therefore when he is sent to AAA he will be a full time 1B.

When he is recalled in late April Davis will have had his chance to play 1B and his bat will probably not have improved enough to hold the 1B job.  Mountcastle will take over 1B.  

That makes Santander the LF,  Mancini the RF and Nunez the DH.  Davis to the bench.