Impact of Signing Deadline Arbitration on 2009 Draft

[PapaRick]

I realize that there are numerous possible outcomes to the MLBPA grievance concerning MLB's unilateral decision to extend the signing deadline for a few 2008 draftees. But Pittsburgh is apparently saying that they will not renegotiate with Alvarez (source: http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/pirates/s_585852.html?source=rss&feed=14 ).

My thought is that with the O's expected to draft anywhere from 5 to 9 in 2009, based on their current pitching situation, that any outcome that dumps either or both of Alvarez and Hosmer into the 2009 pool would be a wash for the O's. My reasoning is that although the addition of those two premium bats will deepen the early first round crop, the O's would be pushed back by the same number of slots because both Pittsburgh and Kansas City would get picks ahead of No.5.

Any thoughts?

[McLovin]

Theoretically it sounds like a wash, but there could be a chance that these guys drop because of the fiasco brought on by Boras.

[Enjoy Terror]

I can't figure out what it is that this thread is saying. I'm interpreting it as, Alvarez and Hosmer could go back into the draft pool for 2009, and with a 5th overall pick and the Pirates not likely to retake Alvarez, are you suggesting that we would automatically be saddled with Alvarez as our first round pick?

I don't see that as a bad thing, especially if Alvarez continues to be 5th round or earlier material. Alvarez would be stupid to go and ruin his chances of being signed for a second straight draft, I think it would give the team who drafts him much more leverage.

[PapaRick]

I can't figure out what it is that this thread is saying. I'm interpreting it as, Alvarez and Hosmer could go back into the draft pool for 2009, and with a 5th overall pick and the Pirates not likely to retake Alvarez, are you suggesting that we would automatically be saddled with Alvarez as our first round pick?

I don't see that as a bad thing, especially if Alvarez continues to be 5th round or earlier material. Alvarez would be stupid to go and ruin his chances of being signed for a second straight draft, I think it would give the team who drafts him much more leverage.

Sorry, I will try to be clearer. My point is that although it is a possibility that both get put back into the draft pool for 2009, even if we have the 5th worst record and thus, in a normal draft, the fifth pick, that fifth pick would be the seventh pick because the Pirates and Kansas City would get picks 2A and 3A.

So, the pool gets increase by two players who are top 5 caliber, but we don't pick 5th, but 7th. Thus, it is a push for us.

I think it would be great if we could get Alvarez, but I don't think he lasts until our pick unless something freaky happens.

Hopefully, I explained my point more clearly.

[Stotle]

Sorry, I will try to be clearer. My point is that although it is a possibility that both get put back into the draft pool for 2009, even if we have the 5th worst record and thus, in a normal draft, the fifth pick, that fifth pick would be the seventh pick because the Pirates and Kansas City would get picks 2A and 3A.

So, the pool gets increase by two players who are top 5 caliber, but we don't pick 5th, but 7th. Thus, it is a push for us.

I think it would be great if we could get Alvarez, but I don't think he lasts until our pick unless something freaky happens.

Hopefully, I explained my point more clearly.

I can't imagine Alvarez and Hosmer going back into the draft pool.

[PapaRick]

I can't imagine Alvarez and Hosmer going back into the draft pool.

I agree that it is highly unlikely that the arbitrator will place them back in the pool. My basis for the discussion was the Pittsburgh newspaper article I referenced that said the Pirates will not renegotiate. If in the unlikely case that the arbitrator nullifies his current contract, and then Pittsburgh is not willing to renegotiate, he would wind up back in the pool for 2009. Very unlikely I know, but we discuss a lot of things on the OH that are less likely.

[Stotle]

I agree that it is highly unlikely that the arbitrator will place them back in the pool. My basis for the discussion was the Pittsburgh newspaper article I referenced that said the Pirates will not renegotiate. If in the unlikely case that the arbitrator nullifies his current contract, and then Pittsburgh is not willing to renegotiate, he would wind up back in the pool for 2009. Very unlikely I know, but we discuss a lot of things on the OH that are less likely.

Oh for sure. And I didn't mean to imply it isn't worth discussingJust that