Would you move the O's to the NL if you could?

[waroriole]

Let's dispense with the mountain analogy, since it still makes no sense once you put the speed element in.

I'd like to hear you defend the ridiculous comment that all four of the O's division-mates are amongst the best teams in baseball.

That's not true this year, and it hasn't been true in any other year, either. Even three is a huge reach.

I would agree that the top 4 in the AL East could win the NL West, NL East, and possibly AL Central this year. That makes them among the best teams in the baseball.

[Greg Pappas]

Fred, go climb a mountain. It's 6,000 feet high.

Wayne, you climb the next mountain. It's 6,300 feet high.

Joe, your mountain is 5,900 feet high.

Earl... Earl your mountain is 8,900 feet high. You better get going, because you're a failure and a coward if you don't climb 8,900 feet in a better time than Fred climbs 6,000.

I respectfully disagree with this analogy.

First off, going from 6k to nearly 9k is a stretch in comparing mountains/divisions, although I understand what you're getting at.

Regardless, here's another analogy...

The goal, getting to school... but there are a few bullies that usually stop you from getting there, embarrassing you often, and it's been a long time since you were able to attend.

Sure, you could get to school by avoiding them, slipping past them and 'winning' by walking through the school doors... but would that really feel like victory? It wouldn't bother you to feel as if you were running away from these neighborhood bullies, rather than standing up to the and kicking their butts?

I dunno... maybe my analogy is not all that great either, but it represents in close proximity to how I feel about the subject.

We have long-standing rivalries with the Yankees and Red Sox, and those rivalries are at the heart of why many of us watch the game.

[Stotle]

I agree... although the organization seems to be headed in the right direction. We have hope for the first time in a long time.

I won't fully agree with this sentiment until I see the organization willing to spend some money -- be it on locking-up in-house talent or signing FAs (or acquiring more expensive players via trade). If we're sitting here next year with an OAK-style payroll it will be a shame.

[DrungoHazewood]

Let's dispense with the mountain analogy, since it still makes no sense once you put the speed element in.

I'd like to hear you defend the ridiculous comment that all four of the O's division-mates are amongst the best teams in baseball.

That's not true this year, and it hasn't been true in any other year, either. Even three is a huge reach.

This RPI rating has the Rays, Jays, and Sox as the top three teams in baseball, and the Yankees 8th. A few weeks ago they had the Yanks higher, and the O's 10th (they're now 14th). Tom Tango, who's a heck of a lot smarter than me, cited this as a good way to do a SOS ranking.

The ESPN power/SOS ranking has the AL East with four of the top seven teams in baseball.

And by BP's adjusted standings and 3rd-order SOS-adjusted winning percentage the overall MLB standings would be Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Cubs, Yankees...

If you took my comment as meaning the AL East has the top four teams in baseball, I wasn't clear enough. I meant that the division has four of the best teams in MLB, and the top three overall.

[davearm]

I would agree that the top 4 in the AL East could win the NL West, NL East, and possibly AL Central this year. That makes them among the best teams in the baseball.

Not even close to true.

If we wipe away the AL East intra-division games, you're left with the following:

TEAM  W  L	Pct.TB   51	31	0.622BOS  54	32	0.628TOR  49	41	0.544NYY  46	40	0.535BAL  45	41	0.523

That represents what these teams have done against the other 25 teams in baseball outside their own division.

You'd better be playing better than .544 ball if you want to think of yourself as among the best teams in baseball. I count 10 teams doing that well or better as of today's standings, and the only division that would lead is the NL West.

[Stotle]

I respectfully disagree with this analogy.

First off, going from 6k to nearly 9k is a stretch in comparing mountains/divisions, although I understand what you're getting at.

Regardless, here's another analogy...

The goal, getting to school... but there are a few bullies that usually stop you from getting there, embarrassing you often, and it's been a long time since you were able to attend.

Sure, you could get to school by avoiding them, slipping past them and 'winning' by walking through the school doors... but would that really feel like victory? It wouldn't bother you to feel as if you were running away from these neighborhood bullies, rather than standing up to the and kicking their butts?

I dunno... maybe my analogy is not all that great either, but it represents in close proximity to how I feel about the subject.

We have long-standing rivalries with the Yankees and Red Sox, and those rivalries are at the heart of why many of us watch the game.

I have one.

The object is to win a war and take over a continent. You are fighting three countries.

One has tons of resources and just keeps pounding you with various high tech weapons. They don't exactly know the best way to utilize these weapons, but their pretty top-notch and there are a fair number of them. SOme are older than others, some are flashy new weapons with kinks still being worked out. Even though this army will slip through periods where they might struggle, there is little doubt they'll be back to battle again with some serious stuff.

One country has very good weapons, as well. Not quite as many but they use them much more effectively. They also have a sweet R&D side that is constantly coming up with more cutting edge stuff and interesting tactics.

One doesn't have nearly the resources of the other two, but they've been working on new technology for some time now and are just starting to unveil it. They aren't a full blown force yet, but if recent fights are any indicaton they look like the real deal and could be a handful for the foreseeable future.

Now for your army. You have a bunch of handguns and some old pick-up trucks with machine guns on top and you've been getting slapped up and down the battlefield for a decade. You also have your own R&D guys putting together some interesting stuff but it's still a little ways away from being ready to be tested on the battlefield. Bottom line: You don't currently have the weapons you need to go toe-to-toe with any of the other three armies. The good news is you have money to go out and buy a bunch of weapons from other countries and you have a other available commodities to trade for certain other weapons. There're a lot of potential approaches to defeating the other three, but it will require a creative approach, good leadership and a willingness to utilize our resources (none of which is known to be in place, though you have a good feeling about one of the new generals calling the some of the shots). You have around five months to get together with some countries and buy/trade for their weapons. Hopefully this time around it will be virginia class subs, blackhawks and top notch fighters rather than super soakers, WWII-era prop planes and muskets.

Or, you could hop over to another continent and try to take on a bunch of countries currently using swords, crossbows, sawed-off pool cues and to occassional pump-action shotgun.

NOTE: I'm not re-reading any of that before posting -- hope it makes some sense (I honestly forgot what I my point was....:wedge:)

[Migrant Redbird]

I'm agin it simply because then I wouldn't have any team in the AL to root for!

[glenn__davis]

Or, you could hop over to another continent and try to take on a bunch of countries currently using swords, crossbows, sawed-off pool cues and to occassional pump-action shotgun.

Fine, but what would be the reward for continuing to fight for the first continent? Your analogy doesn't address that.

I'm still not really getting Drungo's mountain analogy, but just going along with that -- if Fred climbs Backbone Mountain, the highest point in Maryland, and Earl climbs Mt. Everest, whose journey was more rewarding? Who had the greater sense of accomplishment?

[waroriole]

Not even close to true.

If we wipe away the AL East intra-division games, you're left with the following:

TEAM  W  L	Pct.TB   51	31	0.622BOS  54	32	0.628TOR  49	41	0.544NYY  46	40	0.535BAL  45	41	0.523

That represents what these teams have done against the other 25 teams in baseball outside their own division.

You'd better be playing better than .544 ball if you want to think of yourself as among the best teams in baseball. I count 10 teams doing that well or better as of today's standings, and the only division that would lead is the NL West.

You can use this analysis that you've presented, or directly contrary, you can use the analysis that Drungo presented. You can always find an example to support your position.

Looking at the teams in the field, IMO the top 4 in the AL East are better than the 3 divisions I listed.

[Icterus galbula]

Not even close to true.

If we wipe away the AL East intra-division games, you're left with the following:

TEAM  W  L	Pct.TB   51	31	0.622BOS  54	32	0.628TOR  49	41	0.544NYY  46	40	0.535BAL  45	41	0.523

That represents what these teams have done against the other 25 teams in baseball outside their own division.

You'd better be playing better than .544 ball if you want to think of yourself as among the best teams in baseball. I count 10 teams doing that well or better as of today's standings, and the only division that would lead is the NL West.

To make this a more accurate analysis you'd have to take away the intradivision games of the other teams as well. Presumably, division leaders in bad divisions have higher winning percentages for getting to beat up the lesser teams in their division.

[Stotle]

Fine, but what would be the reward for continuing to fight for the first continent? Your analogy doesn't address that.

I'm still not really getting Drungo's mountain analogy, but just going along with that -- if Fred climbs Backbone Mountain, the highest point in Maryland, and Earl climbs Mt. Everest, whose journey was more rewarding? Who had the greater sense of accomplishment?

The first continent has sweet beaches and stuff like that. It's a cooler place to live and everyone knows you're the **** when you control the land there. THey also have cool wild life, great schools and nice weather year round (while still getting some snow in the winter time).

Look, I'd love to be the best in the AL East. It's the best division by far, and being the best means your truly the greatest organization (and I mean over a few years, not simply a fluke season). However, until BAL shows they are willing to spend (rather than going to TAM/OAK/MIN route) I won't be happy. It's forcing a fan base to suffer through mediocrity when readily available solutions are there if you're willing to utilize your assets.

Now, to be clear, this isn't a complaint about what has transpired the last 12 months or so. I think it was important to take the steps that have been taken, and to lay the groundwork. That said, this offseason there are legit opportunities to get a lot better and BAL is highly underutilizing their payroll. Until I see some of Markakis/Wieters/Guthrie/Jones/etc. getting locked-up, or legit stud FA's (that can help for 3-5 years) brought in, BAL will be wasting resources while charging me the same amount (or more) for season tickets, fan gear, whatever.

Like I said in my original post, I think there is a good chance that I'm overreacting and BAL does make some great moves this offseason. Unfortunately, I'm at the point where I need to see it before I can get excited about it.

EDIT -- I just read this and would like to point out that TAM has started locking up kids, so I didn't mean to imply they were the same as OAK/MIN, necessarily. Think about MIN. They took a lesser package for Johan rather than just taking the two draft picks. Any one think they could have locked up the AL Central and set themselves up to be a pretty damn scary team in the playoffs (pitching wise) had they kept Johan?

[davearm]

You can use this analysis that you've presented, or directly contrary, you can use the analysis that Drungo presented. You can always find an example to support your position.

Looking at the teams in the field, IMO the top 4 in the AL East are better than the 3 divisions I listed.

Well if you think it, then I guess that's that.

Nevermind that Toronto had a losing record in interleague play (8-10), and that the Yankees were only slightly better (10-8).

And nevermind that the Yankees are .500 against the AL Central (18-18). Toronto does well against those guys, though (24-12). Of course the Jays are only 17-19 against the AL West, a division with only one above-average team.

You'd think at some point, being a top team in baseball would be reflected in the win column. I'm looking high and low, but I can't find much evidence of it.

[davearm]

To make this a more accurate analysis you'd have to take away the intradivision games of the other teams as well. Presumably, division leaders in bad divisions have higher winning percentages for getting to beat up the lesser teams in their division.

No you wouldn't.

If the premise is that Yanks and Jays are amongst the best teams in baseball, but are being held back by playing in the ALE with the Rays and Sox, then a natural way to test that premise is to observe how they perform against teams outside of the division.

Turns out their winning pct. hardly changes at all. It's still good, but hardly great.

[Stotle]

Well if you think it, then I guess that's that.

Nevermind that Toronto had a losing record in interleague play (8-10), and that the Yankees were only slightly better (10-8).

And nevermind that the Yankees are .500 against the AL Central (18-18). Toronto does well against those guys, though (24-12). Of course the Jays are only 17-19 against the AL West, a division with only one above-average team.

You'd think at some point, being a top team in baseball would be reflected in the win column. I'm looking high and low, but I can't find much evidence of it.

I thought Drungo pointed to some stuff that seemed better constructed than your napkin math (which isn't derogtory -- just pointing out you threw it together quickly).

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1477432&postcount=68

I don't know much about these metrics, but maybe you have some thoughts as to why the AL East teams are rated so highly by all of them.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not even close to true.

If we wipe away the AL East intra-division games, you're left with the following:

TEAM  W  L	Pct.TB   51	31	0.622BOS  54	32	0.628TOR  49	41	0.544NYY  46	40	0.535BAL  45	41	0.523

That represents what these teams have done against the other 25 teams in baseball outside their own division.

You'd better be playing better than .544 ball if you want to think of yourself as among the best teams in baseball. I count 10 teams doing that well or better as of today's standings, and the only division that would lead is the NL West.

Here's the other side of your coin, dave... all of the other divisions in baseball have losing records against the AL East. All of them.

AL Central  68-99AL West   79-94NL East  11-16NL Central  26-30NL West  1-5

When any other team plays the AL East, they're reduced to a 70-win team. An average team in the AL East, when playing anyone else, is a 92-win team. Even the pathetic Orioles have a winning record against teams not in their division.