Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

[Hazmat]

10 hours ago, osravensfan78 said:

New Callis mock. Has us taking Sal Frelick to save money with Lawler, House and Rocker still on the board. I’m really hoping that all of the buzz is just based off them doing it last year. 

Okay, this is starting to get ridiculous.  So Lawler is projected to go #1 for months and all of the sudden he drops past #5 and is taken 7th?  And at #5 the O's take Sal Frelick and pass on the 3 remaining top prep SS's?  

[Just Regular]

I am hoping for a 2023 (if not 2022) contributor but covid dead time pretty well taught me its all just bonus allocation.

Ozzie, DeCosta and the Ravens can rightly focus BPA because of the slotting system, but draft position is just a negotiation starting point.    That said, it would be bothersome to bypass a bluer chip for the early Adley teams if the opportunity is there - just like foreign pools, these are curated dollars you can spend where you know your ROI should be >$1, and if you can get a star it is an aimed shot at a fantastic outcome.

There was enough first few weeks of SEC play stuff last year about Kjerstad's zone control and exit velocities I feel it might not have been as big a reach then, though of course by now who knows what overall health has wrought.

Believe I saw one of the ESPN's showing Vandy Super Regional games at noon tomorrow and Saturday for presumed Rocker/Leiter turns.

[osravensfan78]

2 hours ago, Hazmat said:

Okay, this is starting to get ridiculous.  So Lawler is projected to go #1 for months and all of the sudden he drops past #5 and is taken 7th?  And at #5 the O's take Sal Frelick and pass on the 3 remaining top prep SS's?  

I agree with you 100%. I understood doing it last year and accepted the Kjerstad pick strategy with 5 rounds. I took a lot (and still take a lot) of flack from my friends about last years draft, even when I try to show them how well Westburg is doing.
 

This draft is really deep in talent and this is not the year to be cute. Any of House, Lawler, Meyer, Leiter or my fav Davis works for me. Other than Jobe or Watson, I don’t think anyone else is worth a top 5 pick. I even see better players around the Frelick range that I would take if I was using the same strategy like Ford, Madden,  Montgomery and even Baez. I’m sorry for the rant, but this would just be frustrating to me in the rebuild 2 years in a row. 

[wildcard]

6/9  Mike Elias on 105.7 the Fan.   "I am out scouting high school games for the draft this week."

[osravensfan78]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

6/9  Mike Elias on 105.7 the Fan.   "I am out scouting high school games for the draft this week."

This is what I’ve heard too. He has definitely earned some trust with me in the draft. Hoping he does the right thing. 

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, osravensfan78 said:

This draft is really deep in talent and this is not the year to be cute.

I agree but arrive at the opposite conclusion. This draft is weak at the top according to a lot of people. If you get cute any year, you do it this year. I don't think any of those guys you mentioned are can't miss guys. Now, I find it very interesting that the report is the O's covet Leiter. That would be a huge surprise if they took him if he was available. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I agree but arrive at the opposite conclusion. This draft is weak at the top according to a lot of people. If you get cute any year, you do it this year. I don't think any of those guys you mentioned are can't miss guys. Now, I find it very interesting that the report is the O's covet Leiter. That would be a huge surprise if they took him if he was available. 

No MLB draft has can't miss guys at five.

The further down you pick, the smaller your pol and the smaller your potential savings are for going under slot.

[LTO's]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No MLB draft has can't miss guys at five.

The further down you pick, the smaller your pol and the smaller your potential savings are for going under slot.

A top 5 in a given year can be stronger than another. This year is considered the worst in some time. You can absolutely net some savings with a haircut at 5 if you aren’t enamored with anyone at that spot, and remember, this is still a substantially cut draft. Frelick could be that guy. However, Elias has spent weeks scouting these prep guys. I think he goes with one of them and ends up getting modest savings at best. But I still believe they are going to take who they want. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

A top 5 in a given year can be stronger than another. This year is considered the worst in some time. You can absolutely net some savings with a haircut at 5 if you aren’t enamored with anyone at that spot, and remember, this is still a substantially cut draft. Frelick could be that guy. However, Elias has spent weeks scouting these prep guys. I think he goes with one of them and ends up getting modest savings at best. But I still believe they are going to take who they want. 

The 2011 MLB draft was, at the time, projected to be maybe the best ever.

Top 5 picks.

1- Gerrit Cole

2- Danny Hultzen

3- Trevor Bauer

4- Dylan Bundy

5- Bubba Starling

I'd call that two misses out of five.  Saying there are a lack of can't miss guys at #5 is just pointless, it's that way every draft.

 

The draft isn't like it used to be.  Back in the day you could take a Josh Bell in the second round and pay him 5M to convince him not to go to college.  You can't do that now.  All you can do it convince kids to skip college that weren't picked at the slot value you are paying them.  If other teams thought Coby Mayo was worth 1.75M why didn't anyone pick him in the second round?  It's because, imo, Elias paid a third round talent second round money.  That's fine I guess but I'd much rather go with the BPA in the top 5 since you are much more likely to find a real asset picking 5 than 9, 43 or 103.

I just don't get the strategy of banking on getting an undiscovered gem late in the draft.  You are pretty much banking on being better and smarter than 29 other teams that all have really smart people working for them.

[Jammer7]

Sal Frelick at 1-5 would be a bit of a disappointment for me. He is a good player, sure, but at 1-5? A 5-09 speedy (65 grade speed) CF with a 60 hit tool. Has some limited infield time, apparently. A three sport athlete in high school: hockey, baseball and football. 

Henry Davis has an ugly caveman swing, but when he barrels it goes. Not sure that swing will work. More strength than quick hands and wrists

FWIW, I think Brady House and Harry Ford are Elias' type of guys. I could even see Khalil Watson. There really isn't a good college bat at the top of the draft, at least not the kind I think Elias would want. I think he is posturing and negotiating to see what he can get House to accept first. Then Ford and Watson after that. In the end, I hope he takes House. That 70 power will look great wherever he plays. Pay him, and ditch the under slot shrewdness. This is a year when you can play it straight. Since they have good depth now, they can afford to gamble a little on some younger talent early. Maybe take a college OF bat like Robbie Martin (FSU) or Isaiah Thomas (Vandy) with the 3rd or 4th round pick. 

[Just Regular]

Just saw Rocker the first five innings I've ever seen him (with Ben calling color).    This Super Regionals weekend is 2nd anniversary of his Duke perfecto from 2019.

Looks like fastball, breaking ball mostly - he touched 96 on ESPN gun a couple times in the 4th after leadoff walk, but those were only 95/96's I remember seeing.

Ben said his slider moves a bit like a curveball (not sure if that means he throws very high arm slot ala Bradish giving slider spin some vertical component also).

Huge guy, as one might guess for kid of NFL lineman.   Rocker got the Friday Game 1 just like last weekend, figure Leiter sure tomorrow.

During 5th as typing this post, East Carolina got first hit on groundball single.   He got 2 outs then walked a guy to put himself in 2-on, 2-out jam against 9th place hitter.   By pitch it goes:

85 slider - strike one

77 slider - strike two   (Ben:  he goes to best pitch when in trouble, back to back breaking balls to get to 0-2).

86 slider - grounded to 3rd to escape jam.

East Carolina guy pitching well so 1-0 game entering bottom 5th.    Rocker 7 K/2 BB and the 1-hit in first five innings.

 

 

[MurphDogg]

 

7 and 2/3rds scoreless.

Quite the duel with Gavin Williams who has 13 strikeouts and is a top-50 prospect himself. Could be in the conversation when the Orioles make their second pick.

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Just saw Rocker the first five innings I've ever seen him (with Ben calling color).    This Super Regionals weekend is 2nd anniversary of his Duke perfecto from 2019.

Looks like fastball, breaking ball mostly - he touched 96 on ESPN gun a couple times in the 4th after leadoff walk, but those were only 95/96's I remember seeing.

Ben said his slider moves a bit like a curveball (not sure if that means he throws very high arm slot ala Bradish giving slider spin some vertical component also).

Huge guy, as one might guess for kid of NFL lineman.   Rocker got the Friday Game 1 just like last weekend, figure Leiter sure tomorrow.

During 5th as typing this post, East Carolina got first hit on groundball single.   He got 2 outs then walked a guy to put himself in 2-on, 2-out jam against 9th place hitter.   By pitch it goes:

85 slider - strike one

77 slider - strike two   (Ben:  he goes to best pitch when in trouble, back to back breaking balls to get to 0-2).

86 slider - grounded to 3rd to escape jam.

East Carolina guy pitching well so 1-0 game entering bottom 5th.    Rocker 7 K/2 BB and the 1-hit in first five innings.

 

 

Holy crap I didn’t realize he was Tracy Rocker’s son. 

[Just Regular]

I see Pitching Ninja's hand picked pitch, and it reminds me I have no real clue the difference between a slider and a curveball.    Watching the loop a few times (and maybe its the camera angle), but it seems to me the nastiness on that one was more in the Up to Down than the Right to Left.

 

[Just Regular]

28 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Holy crap I didn’t realize he was Tracy Rocker’s son. 

He's a fun biography.   I've read Dad and Mom met when he was on the Redskins and she was at University of Maryland for a vaguely local tie.

I have no clue if he's the 3rd or 13th best baseballer who happens to be 18 or 21 years old about now, but I like that the 21's could join the Adley Supporting Cast sooner rather than later.    

Gunnar's progress would make it hard to be too bearish if they went to his demographic at a 1-5 as opposed to 1-30 general level, but I'll have a fairly strong personal preference if a Vandy Guy is there alongside the high school kids when it is our turn to pick.   They don't have to be David Price to still flirt with Sometime in 2022 contributions.