Hays has a .000 BA on fly balls

[interloper]

I thought this was interesting. Hays' average based on hit trajectory:

Ground Balls: .348 BA (.696 OPS)
Line Drives: .455 BA (1.182 OPS)
Fly Balls: .000

His GB/FB is only 0.82 (I thought it would be way higher as it feels like he hits a lot of balls on the ground). 

I want to say this is mostly luck as it feels like he's been stinging some balls, however he's 18th percentile in exit velo and 25th percentile in hard-hit %. Not great, but also not far from someone like Alberto.

The O's should keep running him out there as he's been great on defense for the most part and his AB (to me) feel fairly competitive. We can't treat him like Stewart, and I suspect the O's won't. Hays is a hot series away from looking a lot better, but he needs to be a little less jumpy when he swings IMO. Dude swings HARD. 

[interloper]

For comparison, last season his fly ball BA was .267 with a 1.200 OPS. 

[Aristotelian]

Reminds me of the "Willie Mays Hayes" scene in Major League where he has to do pushups every time he hits a popup. Can't post the clip due to profanity policy but you guys know what I'm talking about. 

[ChosenOne21]

Huh, I thought he'd been stinging the ball and getting unlucky, but those exit velocity numbers tell a different story. He's definitely been unlucky on fly balls at least

[Sports Guy]

My only problem with Hays is that he does have a tendency to give away at bats swinging at bad pitches, especially early in the count.  His lack of plate discipline will hold him back and keep his ceiling lower than his talent probably says it is.

That being said, of course he has had some bad luck and he is a far better than his numbers suggest. He will be fine.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Huh, I thought he'd been stinging the ball and getting unlucky, but those exit velocity numbers tell a different story. He's definitely been unlucky on fly balls at least

It's interesting how Hanser's are so low yet he's hitting doubles at a way faster clip than last season so far. 

Looking at Ruiz, he's currently 88th and 77th in exit velo and hard-hit %!

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My only problem with Hays is that he does have a tendency to give away at bats swinging at bad pitches, especially early in the count.  His lack of plate discipline will hold him back and keep his ceiling lower than his talent probably says it is.

That being said, of course he has had some bad luck and he is a far better than his numbers suggest. He will be fine.

He does swing at some bad pitches and it feels like he has to check his swing a LOT.

However, his Whiff % is 75th percentile, good for a "great" value on Baseball Savant. 

Small samples definitely at play, but interesting nonetheless. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

He does swing at some bad pitches and it feels like he has to check his swing a LOT.

However, his Whiff % is 75th percentile, good for a "great" value on Baseball Savant. 

Small samples definitely at play, but interesting nonetheless. 

K rate isn't everything.  You can be better off swinging and missing than you are making weak contact on a pitch you shouldn't have swung at.

[interloper]

I think he's BOTH unlucky AND not making the kind of hard contact he should. 

His swing profile on BS suggests he's swinging at far too many balls at the top of the zone and also down and away. 

His offensive game right now is just kind of scattered and undisciplined, but I think he'll come around. 

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, interloper said:

I thought this was interesting. Hays' average based on hit trajectory:

Ground Balls: .348 BA (.696 OPS)
Line Drives: .455 BA (1.182 OPS)
Fly Balls: .000

His GB/FB is only 0.82 (I thought it would be way higher as it feels like he hits a lot of balls on the ground). 

I want to say this is mostly luck as it feels like he's been stinging some balls, however he's 18th percentile in exit velo and 25th percentile in hard-hit %. Not great, but also not far from someone like Alberto.

The O's should keep running him out there as he's been great on defense for the most part and his AB (to me) feel fairly competitive. We can't treat him like Stewart, and I suspect the O's won't. Hays is a hot series away from looking a lot better, but he needs to be a little less jumpy when he swings IMO. Dude swings HARD. 

Interesting info. It seems to me that Hays has struggled to find his timing so far this season. He's really not hitting the ball with much authority consistently and they seem to be working him in and out. Hard in, soft away. They are actually throwing him 10% more fastballs this year than last year so that's something interesting to watch.

The good news is is he's slashing .292/.320/.417/.737 over his last six games so hopefully he's starting to come out of this a bit, but the his poor statcast info is a bit of a concern early on. 

Saying that, Hays has always been a guy that is a bit of a slow starter and needs consistent at bats to get hot. The years where he stats weren't good were when injuries kept him out for stretches and then he needs to start himself back up and it takes him awhile. 

I still think Hays is going to be a good player, but he's the exact kind of player that gets hurt by the start back up after a long layoff. 

I'd be willing to bet he will be playing real well in a few weeks and will be one of the teams best hitting in a month. 

[Sports Guy]

I saw that Fangraphs are keeping statcast stats now.

The Os, as a team, aren’t hitting the ball very hard overall according to that.

Surprising to me giving how it seems like they are.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=24&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=10,d

[weams]

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

 

I figured Altuve alone explained the drop. 

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

My only problem with Hays is that he does have a tendency to give away at bats swinging at bad pitches, especially early in the count.  His lack of plate discipline will hold him back and keep his ceiling lower than his talent probably says it is.

That being said, of course he has had some bad luck and he is a far better than his numbers suggest. He will be fine.

It sure seems like he leads the team in getting to a full count though.