What’s your early over/under on 67.5 wins in 2021?

[Frobby]

Simple over/under poll, closing Nov. 2.    The O’s 2020 record of 25-35 projects out to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    What’s your early take on whether they will be over or under that number next year?

On the positive side, the O’s have improved their winning percentage fairly significantly in each of the last two years.   They’re a fairly young team that can get better with experience.    If they’re lucky, one of their best hitters (Mancini) comes back.    There are some prospects who can help the club next year, in addition to the guys who barely got their feet wet this year.   And, their Pythagorean record (28-32) was better than their actual mark.

On the other hand, the O’s did not finish strong.   14-16 the first half, 11-19 the second.    Not a good trend there.   It’s not unusual for bad teams to wear down as the season progresses, and this year was so short that the decent start has outsized influence on the overall record.    I also think the expanded roster size worked to the O’s advantage, as they were able to shorten the starts, rely more on relievers and shuttle pitchers off and on the roster.    There will be less opportunity for that next year.

So, what’s your early take?   Obviously there will be roster moves made in the next six months that will influence things, but I doubt we’ll see anything that dramatically changes the team.

 

 

[Spy Fox]

Over. Yes the team's record deteriorated down the stretch, but the second half performances of Mountcastle/Akin/Kremer, and a few others to a lesser extent, make me think that next year's team will be overall more talented than this year's. 

My personal over/under would be more like 70.5 or 71.5. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Simple over/under poll, closing Nov. 2.    The O’s 2020 record of 25-35 projects out to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    What’s your early take on whether they will be over or under that number next year?

On the positive side, the O’s have improved their winning percentage fairly significantly in each of the last two years.   They’re a fairly young team that can get better with experience.    If they’re lucky, one of their best hitters (Mancini) comes back.    There are some prospects who can help the club next year, in addition to the guys who barely got their feet wet this year.   And, their Pythagorean record (28-32) was better than their actual mark.

On the other hand, the O’s did not finish strong.   14-16 the first half, 11-19 the second.    Not a good trend there.   It’s not unusual for bad teams to wear down as the season progresses, and this year was so short that the decent start has outsized influence on the overall record.    I also think the expanded roster size worked to the O’s advantage, as they were able to shorten the starts, rely more on relievers and shuttle pitchers off and on the roster.    There will be less opportunity for that next year.

So, what’s your early take?   Obviously there will be roster moves made in the next six months that will influence things, but I doubt we’ll see anything that dramatically changes the team.

 

 

What about when they sign Stroman?

 

I guess I'll go over but I'm not certain Elias is going to promote enough players to make it happen.

[Sports Guy]

70-75 wins is my expectation 

[O's84]

72 wins.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

What about when they sign Stroman?

 

I guess I'll go over but I'm not certain Elias is going to promote enough players to make it happen.

Lol..he has already promoted most of them.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol..he has already promoted most of them.

Diaz, AR, Pop, Baumann.  I'd like to see Wells at some point, maybe in the pen.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Diaz, AR, Pop, Baumann.  I'd like to see Wells at some point, maybe in the pen.

Diaz will be up unless he’s hurt or sucking.

Adley has a chance later in the season but let’s see how the team is doing.  Wasting the service time may not be worth it.  It this was a normal year, he would have been up for sure next year (barring injury).

Pop definitely could be up but he will have basically gone 2 years not pitching.  He needs time.

Baumann will be performance dependent, both himself and the pitchers up here.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Diaz will be up unless he’s hurt or sucking.

Adley has a chance later in the season but let’s see how the team is doing.  Wasting the service time may not be worth it.  It this was a normal year, he would have been up for sure next year (barring injury).

Pop definitely could be up but he will have basically gone 2 years not pitching.  He needs time.

Baumann will be performance dependent, both himself and the pitchers up here.

Adley should 100% be up and not late in the season.

I'd love to be as enthusiastic about Diaz as you are but they chose for him to spend in excess of a full season in AA.  I think they hold him back past the Super 2 deadline which could impact the team's record.

 

[Jammer7]

I took the under. Mostly due to the lack of solid reliable bullpen arms. Which Hunter Harvey shows up next year, and will it matter if he's on the IL for half of the season? Then Fry, Scott, Armstrong, Tate, Lakins and ? This season saw the pen overused to win as many games as we did. That was with a 28 man roster in a 60 game season. 

I doubt we see any FA signings of any note, maybe a few guys on minor league deals with Spring invites. Getting Mancini back to near his old self would be a huge boost to the lineup, and perhaps guys like Severino, Santander, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Stewart and Ruiz improve their swing decisions more and continue to grow. Maybe Iglesias has his option picked up and is healthy to start the season and plays in 130 games or so. Maybe Cobb is healthy and decent like he finished the year. Maybe Means is healthy and resembles the guy we saw at the end of the year. Maybe Akin, Kremer and Zimmerman work through their ups and downs and make it through the year healthy for the most part, with about 120 innings each. Maybe Baumann and Diaz come up and make a splash mid year. All of that is optimistic, and if it all happens, I still think its under. The pen is that bad with the talent as is.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Adley should 100% be up and not late in the season.

I'd love to be as enthusiastic about Diaz as you are but they chose for him to spend in excess of a full season in AA.  I think they hold him back past the Super 2 deadline which could impact the team's record.

 

No he shouldn’t...unless his performance is overwhelming.  It wasn’t good in his first run in the minors.

Diaz was hurt... that was the reason he wasn’t promoted.

Elias brought up almost everyone he should have this year.  Your little crusade here was proven wrong imo.

And your complaint in this thread is about 4 players..one of which hasn’t pitched in 2 years and another who barely has pro experience.  Doesn’t seem to be that legit of a criticism to me. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No he shouldn’t...unless his performance is overwhelming.  It wasn’t good in his first run in the minors.

Diaz was hurt... that was the reason he wasn’t promoted.

Elias brought up almost everyone he should have this year.  Your little crusade here was proven wrong imo.

And your complaint in this thread is about 4 players..one of which hasn’t pitched in 2 years and another who barely has pro experience.  Doesn’t seem to be that legit of a criticism to me. 

Right, the team's top prospect who is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball might not be a factor in how many games the team wins next year. 

As for Diaz, when he was healthy, he could have been promoted.   He wasn't.  Last time I checked you can take a guy off the IL and immediately promote them.  Is there a rule that they have to stay at the level they were when they were injured for X number of games that I'm unaware of?

Four players, five including Wells.  They could make the difference between the team winning 67 games and 70 games, which is what we are discussing.

 

[Philip]

Our early record was helped by unsustainable offense from Sisco, Ruiz and Severino, but everything else seems to be pretty much a wash. We lost mediocre or worse pitchers( not enough of them, though) and added good pitchers. We still have some chaff to throw out, but the pitching is better, and will not be the most significant problem. We need competent defenders. Ruiz is bad, Alberto is passable with the glove, but nothing more, catching defense is dreadful, first base in flux, but no one is really good there. Will Martin be back? Can he play 2B? 
I fully expect Elias to address infield defense in the offseason, and in the Rule 5. He will be on the lookout for a catcher too, I bet.

I think if this team had continued, flaws would have been revealed, but I also think other players would have gotten callups. But I don’t think it wud have mattered. I don’t think we’d have gotten to 67 this year. But I certainly take the over for next year. I’m comfortable saying 70+, and will be disappointed if we don’t hit it.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Diaz, AR, Pop, Baumann.  I'd like to see Wells at some point, maybe in the pen.

Sounds good.    Of course, they all need to perform decently in the minors for a bit before any call-up.  

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, the team's top prospect who is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball might not be a factor in how many games the team wins next year. 

As for Diaz, when he was healthy, he could have been promoted.   He wasn't.  Last time I checked you can take a guy off the IL and immediately promote them.  Is there a rule that they have to stay at the level they were when they were injured for X number of games that I'm unaware of?

Four players, five including Wells.  They could make the difference between the team winning 67 games and 70 games, which is what we are discussing.

 

Lol...Rutschman is a top prospect but he has no time above Delmarva and he wasn’t that good.  He needs some time to hit and play and gain experience.

He certainly could be up around the AS break.  I’m ok with that.  But I do think it matters how good he is playing AND where the team stands at that point.

Of course, if they just extend him immediately than it doesn’t matter when they bring him up.

Diaz certainly could have moved up but Not moving him to AAA means nothing.  He will be up by June 1 if he is healthy and performing.