Elias speaks on a wide range of topics

[Philip]

1 hour ago, jerios55 said:

I wouldn't have thought Milone and Cashner had value.  He very well may not, but it may depend more on expectations for return.

They aren't exciting moves, but after years of ignoring these international signings, building even small pieces is something.  Not arguing you're wrong, but maybe we could get something that is deemed small enough to be better than outright cuts.

That’s a good approach but I think that one dimensional power might be not be that valuable in a time when everyone is hitting 20 home runs. Nunez has a 30% K rate and doesn’t walk. He can’t run and he can’t field. He has plenty of power, and if the NL keeps the DH, he might have some value as a waiver claim but no one would trade anything meaningful for him.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think the biggest problem with overreliance on WAR is that it does not account for the combination of different skills you need to field a good baseball team.   In other words, a team of 9 Trey Mancini’s in the lineup (2019 version) would hit well but the fielding would be absurdly bad.    A team of 9 Nick Ahmed’s probably wouldn’t go very far either, though the glove work might be slick.   I think a guy like Nunez can have a role on a team, even if he’s not an all around player.   Is it the most valuable role?   Not really.   

Yes of course, but you have to weigh the value of the roster spot. For instance, Valaika was worth .2 fWAR. He hit 112 WRC to Nunez’ 123 WRC. Nunez had 1/3 higher WAR.

Cost aside, who would you rather have?
 

Now add in cost? Nunez’ arbitration raise range is 2.1-3.1 million, Valiaka’s 1.1-1.9.

Valiaka is more versatile and less expensive. I can’t think anyone would prefer Nunez.

[Sports Guy]

I would easily prefer Nunez over Valaika.  It’s not even close for me.

30 homers and 90+ RBIs with a good walk rate still has some value.  
 

Valaika could easily be cut by May next year.  He’s a dime a dozen guy.  There aren’t tons of 30+ homer guys sitting around making 2M or less in arb years.

[ChosenOne21]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Tony LaRussa was just name White Sox manager.   Ruben Amaro Jr is a candidate for the Angels GM.   Jerry Dipoto is the Mariner GM.   We'll see who values homers and RBI.   Especially  on the cheap.  30 homers for 2M might be enticing.

Not everyone in the game is a young analytics only guy.

Tony LaRussa isn't building the White Sox roster. Amaro Jr. hasn't been a GM in over five years. Dipoto is totally an analytics guy. Angels' owner Arte Moreno said that "one of the reasons we hired Jerry is that I really liked the way he viewed baseball analytics."

You don't have to be a young analytics guy to realize that the game is much more complicated than the numbers you find on the back of a baseball card. We've known that since at least the 80s

[Philip]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would easily prefer Nunez over Valaika.  It’s not even close for me.

30 homers and 90+ RBIs with a good walk rate still has some value.  
 

Valaika could easily be cut by May next year.  He’s a dime a dozen guy.  There aren’t tons of 30+ homer guys sitting around making 2M or less in arb years.

I don’t deny that Valaika is common, but that’s why I used him in my comparison, he’s common, but he is more versatile than Nunez( who is also common) and is a 7.9% walk rate good? Valaika Is more versatile and hit almost as well, and is over $1 million cheaper.

[jerios55]

58 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s a good approach but I think that one dimensional power might be not be that valuable in a time when everyone is hitting 20 home runs. Nunez has a 30% K rate and doesn’t walk. He can’t run and he can’t field. He has plenty of power, and if the NL keeps the DH, he might have some value as a waiver claim but no one would trade anything meaningful for him.

Elias has traded Straily/Cashner/Bundy 2019 (all pitching), Milone/Castro/Givens/Velazquez/Bleier 2020 (all pitching) and Villar.  Clearly Villar was a very different situation based on money owed.

I'm not trying to argue that Nunez is good.  But I look at the list above and a lot there isn't either.  Hard to make a true comparison based on these examples.  I'll give you that.

[Moose Milligan]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would easily prefer Nunez over Valaika.  It’s not even close for me.

30 homers and 90+ RBIs with a good walk rate still has some value.  
 

Valaika could easily be cut by May next year.  He’s a dime a dozen guy.  There aren’t tons of 30+ homer guys sitting around making 2M or less in arb years.

 

Lmaaaaoooooooooo @wildcard

[wildcard]

55 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes of course, but you have to weigh the value of the roster spot. For instance, Valaika was worth .2 fWAR. He hit 112 WRC to Nunez’ 123 WRC. Nunez had 1/3 higher WAR.

Cost aside, who would you rather have?
 

Now add in cost? Nunez’ arbitration raise range is 2.1-3.1 million, Valiaka’s 1.1-1.9.

Valiaka is more versatile and less expensive. I can’t think anyone would prefer Nunez.

Plus the the O's need a 2B that can put up a .791 OPS.  They don't need another DH since they have Mancini, Mountcastle and Diaz that all need at bats.

[BirdinBama]

Perhaps I've missed something, but does anyone know what a "non-medical" issue means with Kjerstad?

[Philip]

16 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Elias has traded Straily/Cashner/Bundy 2019 (all pitching), Milone/Castro/Givens/Velazquez/Bleier 2020 (all pitching) and Villar.  Clearly Villar was a very different situation based on money owed.

I'm not trying to argue that Nunez is good.  But I look at the list above and a lot there isn't either.  Hard to make a true comparison based on these examples.  I'll give you that.

Pitching.

If Nunez pitched to a .3 FWAR, he might be tradable too.

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t deny that Valaika is common, but that’s why I used him in my comparison, he’s common, but he is more versatile than Nunez( who is also common) and is a 7.9% walk rate good? Valaika Is more versatile and hit almost as well, and is over $1 million cheaper.

Versatility doesn’t matter if you aren’t good where they stick you.

The 1M doesn’t mean anything.

 

[Sports Guy]

Valaika has been anywhere from terrible to decent in his career.

For his entire career, he basically has a full season worth of at bats and an OPS under 700 in good hitting environments and a career WAR of -.8 and a wRC+ of 69.  His OBp is well under 300 and his slugging is in the low 400s.

Please stop treating as if he’s good or any kind of a valuable piece.

[Sports Guy]

Nunez has over 700 at bats with the Os.  He has a combined OPS in the 790-800 area. His wRC+ Is over 100.  His OBP is about 50 points higher than Valaika career.

He has 43 homers, 34 doubles and has driven in 120 runs.

He is far more productive at the plate and while Valaika may be able to play more positions (albeit none of that great), his overall value isn’t as high as what Nunez provides at the plate.

[Philip]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Valaika has been anywhere from terrible to decent in his career.

For his entire career, he basically has a full season worth of at bats and an OPS under 700 in good hitting environments and a career WAR of -.8 and a wRC+ of 69.  His OBp is well under 300 and his slugging is in the low 400s.

Please stop treating as if he’s good or any kind of a valuable piece.

You’re missing my point. Valaika is not The Risen Savior. I have not suggested that he has any trade value. The point is that he is more versatile and to us, more valuable than Nunez, who also is not The Risen Savior and who also has no trade value.

You  are way overvaluing 12 hrs in 216 ABs vs 8 hrs in 150 ABs, which is almost the same rate of home run per at bat anyway. 

So yeah. Raise the Valaika flag and wave it proudly.

[LookinUp]

Am I misreading this or was the original argument about who has more value (Valaika or Nunez), but now about who has more value "to us?"

Either way, the answer in both cases is likely Nunez. I think SG's argument is right. It's not about who is most versatile, it's about who is most easily replaced. Teams claim guys like Valaika all the time. Nunez is better at his price than what is easily claimed, so even if he's redundant on our roster without injuries, he's still the more valuable player to have.