Analysis of 2020 Rule 5 Eligible players

[rudyrooster]

Curious to see how much (if any) interest other teams might have in Nunez.  I think he will clear waivers and elect free agency.  I could see some team offering him a minor league contract with an invite to ST.  That's probably his best case scenario.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I care about saving money because teams have budgets and saving money gives them flexibility to operate within those budgets. Yeah, they're probably not going to spend savings on major league players this year, but so what? Truth is, neither of us know exactly where any saved money is going. We can see some of the places it isn't going, but would you be really be happier if the Orioles spent some money they saved this year on free agents to get us from like 70 wins to 73?

It's possible the money goes into the Angelos family's pockets. But it's also possible that it goes into signing more international free agents, improving infrastructure, or put into escrow until the team is ready to make a splash. Is the team more likely to make a big free agent signing if they owe Chris Davis $50 million or $60 million?

And even if they pocket it, I don't really care. It makes no difference for next year's team. So long as they're willing to spend when it pushes us over the edge, I don't care if they pinch pennies in lost seasons. People like to save money. Imagine that

Chris Davis didn't steal anything. The team offered him the money freely knowing there was risk involved, and he took it.

There's nothing inherently valuable about 30+ homers and slugging 475-500. Players are a total package, not just their power stats. At the end of the day, you're still paying millions of dollars for a one-win DH and there's no reason to do that.

I think we both know that if Renato is a one win DH with a .310 OBP, 35 homers and a .500 slugging, and DJ Stewart is a one-win DH with a .345 OBP, 25 homers and a .450 slugging, they're still both one-win DHs and DJ Stewart does it for less money. Plus, DJ arguably has some defensive value, which is more than I can say for Nunez 

These decisions are never black and white.   I think we’ve got a very good idea of Nunez’s baseline.   Stewart is more unpredictable.   His season last year was pretty bizarre.   I’m still waiting to see if he’s a decent major leaguer or AAAA fodder.   Same with Mullins really.   2021 is big for both of them.   

[ChosenOne21]

Just now, Frobby said:

These decisions are never black and white.   I think we’ve got a very good idea of Nunez’s baseline.   Stewart is more unpredictable.   His season last year was pretty bizarre.   I’m still waiting to see if he’s a decent major leaguer or AAAA fodder.   Same with Mullins really.   2021 is big for both of them.   

For sure

But even if we accept that DJ Stewart is a wild card and Renato is as much of a sure thing as can be to be a one-win DH, it's not going to make a difference next year. Might as well save the money

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

No, but ST will tell.

Sure but you could have gone to ST with all of them and let it play out.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

For sure

But even if we accept that DJ Stewart is a wild card and Renato is as much of a sure thing as can be to be a one-win DH, it's not going to make a difference next year. Might as well save the money

What do you think they will do with the “saved money”

And please don’t tell me put it into intl FAs or something like that...that’s wrong.  And they aren’t saving it up for the long term. 
 

The Angelos family doesn’t have some “saved money for later acquisitions” bank account.  
 

All that saved money will do is go in their pockets.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I care about saving money because teams have budgets and saving money gives them flexibility to operate within those budgets. Yeah, they're probably not going to spend savings on major league players this year, but so what? Truth is, neither of us know exactly where any saved money is going. We can see some of the places it isn't going, but would you be really be happier if the Orioles spent some money they saved this year on free agents to get us from like 70 wins to 73?

It's possible the money goes into the Angelos family's pockets. But it's also possible that it goes into signing more international free agents, improving infrastructure, or put into escrow until the team is ready to make a splash. Is the team more likely to make a big free agent signing if they owe Chris Davis $50 million or $60 million?

And even if they pocket it, I don't really care. It makes no difference for next year's team. So long as they're willing to spend when it pushes us over the edge, I don't care if they pinch pennies in lost seasons. People like to save money. Imagine that

Chris Davis didn't steal anything. The team offered him the money freely, knowing there was risk involved, and he took it.

There's nothing inherently valuable about 30+ homers and slugging 475-500. Players are a total package, not just their power stats. At the end of the day, you're still paying millions of dollars for a one-win DH and there's no reason to do that.

I think we both know that if Renato is a one win DH with a .310 OBP, 35 homers and a .500 slugging, and DJ Stewart is a one-win DH with a .345 OBP, 25 homers and a .450 slugging, they're still both one-win DHs and DJ Stewart does it for less money. Plus, DJ arguably has some defensive value, which is more than I can say for Nunez 

If you think the saved money will be spent later your a bit naive,

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If you think the saved money will be spent later your a bit naive,

What tells you and SG this?   We have seen in the very recent past the Orioles ramping up their payroll very dramatically when the team got good.   They took payroll from $78 mm in 2012 to $161 mm in 2017 as they fought to stay competitive.    Who’s to say that they could have spent $161 mm in 2017 if they hadn’t banked some money in 2012 and before?   And I’m not saying I know the inside scoop on the Orioles’ true financial picture - I don’t.   But it makes all the sense in the world to be parsimonious on payroll in the years when you aren’t going to be good anyway, and then dip into the till in the years when it can make a difference.  That’s just logical business sense IMO.

[Roll Tide]

59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What tells you and SG this?   We have seen in the very recent past the Orioles ramping up their payroll very dramatically when the team got good.   They took payroll from $78 mm in 2012 to $161 mm in 2017 as they fought to stay competitive.    Who’s to say that they could have spent $161 mm in 2017 if they hadn’t banked some money in 2012 and before?   And I’m not saying I know the inside scoop on the Orioles’ true financial picture - I don’t.   But it makes all the sense in the world to be parsimonious on payroll in the years when you aren’t going to be good anyway, and then dip into the till in the years when it can make a difference.  That’s just logical business sense IMO.

You’d have to show where they had a negative annual P&L

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What tells you and SG this?   We have seen in the very recent past the Orioles ramping up their payroll very dramatically when the team got good.   They took payroll from $78 mm in 2012 to $161 mm in 2017 as they fought to stay competitive.    Who’s to say that they could have spent $161 mm in 2017 if they hadn’t banked some money in 2012 and before?   And I’m not saying I know the inside scoop on the Orioles’ true financial picture - I don’t.   But it makes all the sense in the world to be parsimonious on payroll in the years when you aren’t going to be good anyway, and then dip into the till in the years when it can make a difference.  That’s just logical business sense IMO.

No chance.  The payroll is different every year for several different reasons.

They arent storing the money away in some bank account for later transactions. That’s just not how it works, especially this family.

[Just Regular]

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

Simply looking at Opening Day 30-man's rank within MLB since 2005:

14/15/11   22/23/21   16/12/16   15/14/9   10/13/27   29/x/y   (x = 2021, y = 2022)

I agree there likely isn't a Savings Account per se, but I do believe enterprises this large plan expenditures on multi-year time horizons.   I will be mad if by 2024 the cresting Rutschman teams don't get their Scherzer character, but am generally hopeful they will.  Miguel Tejada: The Next Generation is the right basket of talent, but maybe a year too soon next offseason.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You’d have to show where they had a negative annual P&L

Well, none of us have access to the actual P&L.    But per Forbes the O’s had negative operating income in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018.     They were very profitable in 2019 after dropping the payroll.  Click on this link, scroll down and click on Operating Income.  https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/?sh=1062414676db

[ChosenOne21]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

All that saved money will do is go in their pockets.

 

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

If you think the saved money will be spent later your a bit naive,

Even if they never spend the money they saved on Nunez on the team, how exactly is that hurting us in any way? We might win one less game next year and miss out on the 1% chance that Nunez plays way over his head and can be traded for something of value? I'm not going to worry about it

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They arent storing the money away in some bank account for later transactions. That’s just not how it works, especially this family.

I'd love to know how you know this. Can you link me an article or something? Frobby has a point--they've shot up payroll in the past when the team has been competitive. It's easier to do that when you have more money sitting around like, you know, from when you cut a guy with a multi-million dollar salary to replace him with an equivalent player making league minimum.

And before you ask, I don't know for sure they'll reinvest savings into the team in the future. But it only makes logical sense they'll be more likely to if they have more money, however small

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

 

Even if they never spend the money they saved on Nunez on the team, how exactly is that hurting us in any way? We might win one less game next year and miss out on the 1% chance that Nunez plays way over his head and can be traded for something of value? I'm not going to worry about it

I'd love to know how you know this. Can you link me an article or something? Frobby has a point--they've shot up payroll in the past when the team has been competitive. It's easier to do that when you have more money sitting around like, you know, from when you cut a guy with a multi-million dollar salary to replace him with an equivalent player making league minimum.

And before you ask, I don't know for sure they'll reinvest savings into the team in the future. But it only makes logical sense they'll be more likely to if they have more money, however small

Giving up decent, cheap production for free is dumb.  It doesn’t matter that it likely won’t effect them in the standings.  That’s irrelevant. 

it’s logical to assume they will put money in some kind of a “spend later account”.

Its amazing to me that anyone could actually put faith in this ownership group to do that.  I mean, I wouldn’t put faith in any ownership group to do that but it’s real “bury your head in the sand” stuff to think the Angelos family will actually do something like that.

And no, there aren’t links to things you can’t prove.  I think it’s just coMmon sense and this family has proven it over the last 2 decades.

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Giving up decent, cheap production for free is dumb.  It doesn’t matter that it likely won’t effect them in the standings.  That’s irrelevant. 

it’s logical to assume they will put money in some kind of a “spend later account”.

Its amazing to me that anyone could actually put faith in this ownership group to do that.  I mean, I wouldn’t put faith in any ownership group to do that but it’s real “bury your head in the sand” stuff to think the Angelos family will actually do something like that.

And no, there aren’t links to things you can’t prove.  I think it’s just coMmon sense and this family has proven it over the last 2 decades.

I have a few takeaways from this post.

1. I don't think it's so much that the money is put in a "spend later account" as much as it is that by trimming the fat as much as possible during a rebuild, you can get a bit more ownership buy-in to do a full rebuild rather than some half-a** job where you plug in fillers like Jay Payton part way through because interest has plummeted so far. If you can make the bottom line still look okay despite the rebuild, ownership is going to be more likely to support it--even if it drags on. I think it can also, potentially, buy goodwill for later where the ownership may be willing to over-extend for a year or two, particularly if a GM has shown he's prudent with the owners' money in the lean times. It's not a magic account where money sits until it's used, but I do think there is some benefit to cutting as much as possible now that may show up later. And even if that isn't a guaranteed benefit, I don't see how that hurts unless it ultimately hurts the long-term plan.

2. I think you may be over-estimating Nunez in that first sentence. He's a serviceable DH who can stand at 1B or 3B if you need someone to stand there. The team obviously doesn't think he can handle defense at 3B otherwise I'm sure they'd pick him over Ruiz. Given he's--in their eyes 1B or DH--and you have Davis who they are insisting in holding for now, Mancini who by all reports will be ready by spring,  and Mountcastle who may be penciled in to LF for now, but could easily get pushed out of the OF by more talented defenders, I'm not sure the playing time is there.

With that said, I'm sure they've shopped him around some and would have kept him if they thought they could get anything of value for him, but I don't see the market for a Nunez type player.

I agree that "giving up decent, cheap production for free is dumb", but only if that decent, cheap production holds any real value to other clubs. If not, it's reasonable to assume it can be replaced by decent, cheaper production...or even already team-controlled production.

[Sports Guy]

I’m not overestimating Nunez at all.  I have been very clear what I think about him and how I hope that he doesn’t get much time this year.  
 

But what he does represent is an insurance policy.  Will it matter in the long run?  Probably not. I agree with Frobby that there is potentially more upside in his bat but overall, I don’t think it matters to lose him long term.  
 

What I do think matters is that you gave away solid offensive production for nothing.  His salary is nothing.  It doesn’t prevent you from doing anything and it doesn’t mean you will spend it later or that it would even matter if you did...since 2 million goes nowhere anyway.

And maybe he would never be worth anything on the trade market but I would have kept him around, see how ST plays out and go from there.  You would have essentially been gambling about 400k or so on him.  

That’s a fairly reasonable insurance policy to take on.