Analysis of 2020 Rule 5 Eligible players

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'd stick with the 3 no-brainers and Wells.   Wells is not likely to become anything special but you can't ignore the success he's had and he's been age appropriate for his levels.   I'd be much more upset if Alex Wells became a #4 starter for another team than if Zach Pop became a middle reliever/setup guy for another team.   I might also protect Bannon as he could seriously be in the 2021 mix for a starting job at some point.    I would not protect Pop, particularly coming off of the surgery and a 1+ year layoff.

How do you think the Os would be hurt if they protected Pop?

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Roster flexibility.  They want to add waiver claims and so forth.   I tend to feel that RH relievers are plentiful.   Is there really that much separation between Pop, Matson, Sedlock, and yes, even Peralta?  In my opinion, I don't think it's clear that Pop is the best of the bunch.

I think it’s clear that scouts like Pop the most but I do agree that any of them could pop and be the best.

I think the most upside is Pop, provided he comes back from surgery throwing as well or better than before.

I don’t think roster flexibility is an issue.  The Os could cut 4-8 more players and you wouldn’t even question it.  And that’s before the idea that I believe that they have 7 or so spots available on the 40 man roster right now.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s clear that scouts like Pop the most but I do agree that any of them could pop and be the best.

I think the most upside is Pop, provided he comes back from surgery throwing as well or better than before.

I don’t think roster flexibility is an issue.  The Os could cut 4-8 more players and you wouldn’t even question it.  And that’s before the idea that I believe that they have 7 or so spots available on the 40 man roster right now.

At the end of the day, if Elias has any concerns that Pop could be taken, you go ahead and protect him since there are still several players that could be DFA'd fairly easily and probably still kept. 

[HowAboutThat]

It remains to be seen of course, but I’m still waiting to see what guys remain exposed by the other teams. It’s interesting that both Joey Rickard and Santander were surprise choices, not on anyone’s radar, and Martin was wildly expected to be the first choice and he was.

There are still several guys that can be removed from the 40-man without a second thought so I doubt there will be any roster crunch regardless of how many guys we protect.

[luismatos4prez]

I would like to note that there is a whole lot of room on the 40 man roster. Including Mancini and Martin, there are currently 35. But I don't expect Eshelman, Ruiz, and Nunez to be on for long. Plenty of other guys (i.e. Valaika, Wynns, Sulser) could get axed as well.

6 guys could get added without a problem. That still leaves room for waiver claims, our own Rule 5 picks, a FA signing or two, etc.

 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

On 11/5/2020 at 12:19 PM, Number5 said:

While there may be a 3B worth taking a cheap flyer on available, I seriously doubt that there will be a solid 3B there.  If one is surprisingly left unprotected, I'd say one of the four teams picking ahead of us would almost surely grab him.  Solid isn't exactly a normal description of rule 5 guys.  Perhaps there are the occasional solid middle relievers there, but that's pretty much it for the most part.  Rule 5 draft is really about taking flyers and I don't think Elias will be focusing on a certain position to fill a need.  I think he will grab the guy he sees the most upside in that might possibly be able to stick with the big club for the season, regardless of position, but that's only my opinion.  Fortunately, our system is improving and taking multiple guys that are clearly better than the guys we have in our own system is no longer all that easy to do.

You especially don’t find solid position players who are major league ready.    We scored pretty nicely on the Santander selection, but he had only played A ball and had an injury issue.   He wasn’t at all major league ready when we got him.   If you can find a 3B prospect like that, maybe you take a shot.   

[Roll Tide]

On 11/4/2020 at 11:03 AM, Tony-OH said:

Here are the players eligible for  Rule 5 selection this year. The Orioles 40-man as of 10/4 is 35 players.

Here's how I see them being protected

Must Protects
Yusniel Diaz - OF
Michael Baumann - SP
Zac Lowther - SP

Possible Protects
Alex Wells - SP
Zach Pop - RP
Rylan Bannon - 2B/3B

Long shot Protects
Brenan Hanifee - SP
Isaac Mattson - RP
Cody Sedlock - RP

No Need to protect
Tyler Erwin - RP
Brett Cumberland - C
Ryan Ripken - 1B
JC Encarnacion - 3B
Mason McCoy - SS/UTL
T.J. Nichting - OF
Zach Jarrett - OF
Mickey Jannis - SP
Ofelky Peralta - RP
Cameron Bishop - RP
Ryan Wilson - SP/RP
Zach Muckenhirn - RP
Matthias Dietz - RP
Zach Matson - RP

I mentioned earlier that I’d  clear the roster enough to protect your top 9. After thinking about it, I  see little chance that Elias doesn’t protect Mattson. He was  a key part of the  Bundy deal and didn’t have a chance to show  hiss  impact this season due to COVID 

 

Same with Pop!

Quote

It certainly feels like the Dodgers cut ties with Pop before getting to see what he was all about. Just after he joined the O’s, FanGraphs ran a profile on Pop that touted his “electric arm” and compared him to “a right-handed version of Zach Britton.” Nice. Then again, maybe LA didn’t see much ceiling in a two-pitch right-hander with control problems.

https://www.camdenchat.com/2020/11/3/21547404/with-tommy-john-surgery-behind-him-will-the-orioles-take-a-flyer-on-zach-pop

 

Pop has a 60+ BB RATE, 1 hr surrendered in around 80 innings, 1 K per nine, and only 25BBs in just over 80 innings despite being labeled as wild

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I mentioned earlier that I’d  clear the roster enough to protect your top 9. After thinking about it, I  see little chance that Elias doesn’t protect Mattson. He was  a key part of the  Bundy deal and didn’t have a chance to show  hiss  impact this season due to COVID 

 

Same with Pop!

https://www.camdenchat.com/2020/11/3/21547404/with-tommy-john-surgery-behind-him-will-the-orioles-take-a-flyer-on-zach-pop

 

Pop has a 60+ BB RATE, 1 hr surrendered in around 80 innings, 1 K per nine, and only 25BBs in just over 80 innings despite being labeled as wild

I don't know how Elias feels about Mattson overall, but the reports I got about him at the alternate camp did not indicate he's a guy you protect. I also do not think he was a key part of the Bundy deal. In fact, I think he was probably the 4th part of the deal. Bradish was probably the key guy and the other two are wild cards because they had never pitched professionally yet. 

As for Pop, as I've discussed in several other threads, the only way Elias protects him is if he thinks he will get selected. I still think it's doubtful a team will go after a guy coming off Tommy John surgery who has very limited minor league experience. 

Oh, and I would not say that Pop has control problems, rather some command issues.

[wildcard]

On 11/6/2020 at 12:30 PM, luismatos4prez said:

I would like to note that there is a whole lot of room on the 40 man roster. Including Mancini and Martin, there are currently 35. But I don't expect Eshelman, Ruiz, and Nunez to be on for long. Plenty of other guys (i.e. Valaika, Wynns, Sulser) could get axed as well.

6 guys could get added without a problem. That still leaves room for waiver claims, our own Rule 5 picks, a FA signing or two, etc.

 

 

 

 

I would DFA Wynns and Sulser. Offer them both AAA contracts and a invite to ST.  I know Hyde likes Sulser but he will be 31 and had an ERA of over 5.00.  The O's have a good chance of getting him back on minor league contract.   The O's have already signed Taylor Davis to a minor league contract probably just so they could take the risk of putting Wynns through waivers.

With the roster at 33 the O's can add 6 and still have a roster spot open for the Rule 5 draft.

I would put Lowther, Baumann, Diaz, Pop, Wells and Mattson.

Lowther, Baumann and Diaz are no brainers.    

Pop, 24, is just the kind of reliever that a rebuilding team would take in the Rule 5 draft.   His high ceiling makes it too risky to leave him off the roster.

Wells, 24, is coming off a stellar year at AA.  Too tempting for some team even if he does not throw hard.   I don't want some team to take him, mess with him and possible return him after messing with him.  He is part of the O's rebuild.  He needs to stay the O's system and show what he can do at AAA.  He could get a call up in the 2nd half.  Even if he is a long reliever he could be a important part of the rebuild.

Mattson, 25,  had a 2.68 ERA and a 0.0985 WHIP with 61 K and 43 IP at AA.   Acquired for Bundy,  he is a guy Elias is going to want to see not lose.

The O's have announced they are moving Bannon to 2B.  Mostly because he doesn't play 3B very well.  I currently have him 6th in line at 2B behind Valaika, Sanchez, Alberto, Urias and Martin.    That is why I would expose him to the draft. 

I think its crazy to think the Valaika would be DFA after he just put up a 791 OPS.   He actually begins ST as a leading candidate to be a everyday player IMO.

Since the O's will try hard to trade Cobb this off season to dump as much of his salary as they can Eshelman provides swingman depth to begin the season.  Only if the O's acqiure someone better do I see him coming off the roster.  Until then I think he stays.

This list has to be set by November 20th.  And while I think there is a good chance they trade Nunez it probably does not happen before that date so he is probably on the roster on Nov  20.

Ruiz has an option and is 3B depth.   The top candidates for 3B are Sanchez and Alberto maybe in a platoon.   Both are arbitration eligible and probably need to be signed or DFA'd by Dec 2nd to avoid arbitration.  I doubt Elias DFA Ruiz but if he does he will be probably be after Sanchez and Alberto contract status is settled.  So Ruiz is probably on the roster on Nov 20th.

JMO

[Roll Tide]

This Twins have a big group of guys to protect

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/who-should-the-twins-protect-from-the-rule-5-draft-r10042

[MCO'sFan]

There is so much flexibility (replaceable parts) to this 40 man roster that you could easily protect 6-7 guys. Without considering the options starting I would protect the following:

Yusniel Diaz - OF
Michael Baumann - SP
Zac Lowther - SP
Alex Wells - SP
Zach Pop - RP
Brenan Hanifee - SP
Isaac Mattson - RP

If I am concerned about the options then I roll the dice on Hanifee and maybe Mattson. I don't see Bannon as a long-term part so I am not worried about losing him. I lean toward protecting pitchers because of the number needed to handle poor performance and injury. 

[Roll Tide]

58 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

There is so much flexibility (replaceable parts) to this 40 man roster that you could easily protect 6-7 guys. Without considering the options starting I would protect the following:

Yusniel Diaz - OF
Michael Baumann - SP
Zac Lowther - SP
Alex Wells - SP
Zach Pop - RP
Brenan Hanifee - SP
Isaac Mattson - RP

If I am concerned about the options then I roll the dice on Hanifee and maybe Mattson. I don't see Bannon as a long-term part so I am not worried about losing him. I lean toward protecting pitchers because of the number needed to handle poor performance and injury. 

We. Have so many fringe major leaguers that we can remove them from the roster to protect the 9 that need to be protected. For example, the guy we just picked up on waivers that has the good glove. The glove is great but he can’t hit. So it really doesn’t matter if we lose him on a. Waiver claim.

[luismatos4prez]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think its crazy to think the Valaika would be DFA after he just put up a 791 OPS.   He actually begins ST as a leading candidate to be a everyday player IMO.

Since the O's will try hard to trade Cobb this off season to dump as much of his salary as they can Eshelman provides swingman depth to begin the season.  Only if the O's acqiure someone better do I see him coming off the roster.  Until then I think he stays.

Ruiz has an option and is 3B depth.   The top candidates for 3B are Sanchez and Alberto maybe in a platoon.   Both are arbitration eligible and probably need to be signed or DFA'd by Dec 2nd to avoid arbitration.  I doubt Elias DFA Ruiz but if he does he will be probably be after Sanchez and Alberto contract status is settled.  So Ruiz is probably on the roster on Nov 20th.

JMO

Valaika could be a utility guy, but he doesn't play good defense anywhere. Plus, he's arbitration eligible and his career OPS+ is still 72 even after last year. I'm not a believer, and I doubt Mike gives him a million dollars. DFA and minor league contract to compete with Urias next year is most likely. I'm still naively hoping that Sanchez, Iglesias, and Alberto are 2B/3B/SS next year.

There are Tom Eshelmans on the waiver wire at any point during the season. His 2.42 HR/9 isn't a fluke, he just doesn't have ML stuff.

Fair point about Ruiz. He is who he is: an above average 3B defender with a weak bat. But you're right that he probably stays on over the winter.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

We. Have so many fringe major leaguers that we can remove them from the roster to protect the 9 that need to be protected. For example, the guy we just picked up on waivers that has the good glove. The glove is great but he can’t hit. So it really doesn’t matter if we lose him on a. Waiver claim.

Here's the problem with that. Let's say we add all of:

Yusniel Diaz - OF
Michael Baumann - SP
Zac Lowther - SP
Alex Wells - SP
Zach Pop - RP
Brenan Hanifee - SP
Isaac Mattson - RP
Rylan Bannon - INF

Then you need some room later of for acquisitions so now you have to risk them on a waiver claim (much more likely to happen than a Rule 5 selection). Obviously Diaz, Baumann and Lowther are obvious adds, but unless Elias think the rest will not only get selected, but actually stick all year with another team, it makes more sense to gain an extra year of protection without clogging up a 40-man spot.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Valaika could be a utility guy, but he doesn't play good defense anywhere. Plus, he's arbitration eligible and his career OPS+ is still 72 even after last year. I'm not a believer, and I doubt Mike gives him a million dollars. DFA and minor league contract to compete with Urias next year is most likely. I'm still naively hoping that Sanchez, Iglesias, and Alberto are 2B/3B/SS next year.

There are Tom Eshelmans on the waiver wire at any point during the season. His 2.42 HR/9 isn't a fluke, he just doesn't have ML stuff.

Fair point about Ruiz. He is who he is: an above average 3B defender with a weak bat. But you're right that he probably stays on over the winter.

I'm not sure I would call him an above average defender. He's average at best but I don't think he brings additional value defensively. statcast had him -5 OOA last year and 0 this year. BR had him -0.3 in 2019 and 0.3 this year. At the end of the day, he doesn't hurt you over there but his defense doesn't make up for his weak bat at the corner. if Ruiz was the athlete that Flaherty was he would make a decent utility guy but he really doesn't move very well in is probably stuck 3B-1b, and maybe some corner outfield.