Trade Bait 2021

[Bahama O's Fan]

Possible trade bait, one not a surprise and one that might be:

Matt Harvey and

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Cedric Mullins

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Possible trade bait, one not a surprise and one that might be:

Matt Harvey and

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Cedric Mullins

You are funny.  Cheap 26 year old that is tearing it up on a rebuilding team.   Not likely.

[Bahama O's Fan]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

You are funny.  Cheap 26 year old that is tearing it up on a rebuilding team.   Not likely.

His value is higher than ever. We have a gluttony of OF. Hays can man center. Just a thought

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

His value is higher than ever. We have a gluttony of OF. Hays can man center. Just a thought

It’s a good thought too.  
 

At some point, decisions need to be made about a lot of guys.  You can’t play everyone and you don’t wait until their value is near zero before you do something with them.

Maybe Mullins is part of the future or maybe he is just hot right now.  You just need to wait and see what he does.

[sportsfan8703]

I’m kind of torn here. I don’t think a complete sell off at the deadline is necessary. Obviously you trade the guys that are upcoming FA like Harvey, Galvis, and Franco. Armstrong as well. 
 

The big questions are,

What is Elias’ plan for the group of Zimmerman, Kremer, Akin, Lowther, Alex Wells, and Baumann?  Are we really going to give them all extended looks this year to see what we have?

Are we going to give Diaz an extended look at some point?

What is AR’s arrival date? 
 

A lot of where we are depends on how effective the SP prospects above can slot in behind Means next year. It’s looking like we will have a solid lineup and bullpen for 2022. If we start AR on the OD 2022 roster, and can piece together a rotation until we could add Grod/Hall, we could compete for .500+. 

[UMDTerrapins]

Mullins emerging as an every day CF is a great complication, but it clearly is going to have a ripple effect. Kjerstad and Diaz will need room. Hays and Santander have star potential. Mountcastle should settle in at one position...presumably first base. So not only are you considering trading Santander, you gotta ask what the plan is with Mancini. That’s obviously complicated. 

[DJHJR86]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

You are funny.  Cheap 26 year old that is tearing it up on a rebuilding team.   Not likely.

 

Why not?  This is his first year switching to a full-time lefty, and while the results are promising thus far, I think he'll slide back down to Earth shortly.  The fact that this is a rebuilding team with a plethora of outfielders doesn't make this decision any harder.

[BohKnowsBmore]

30 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Why not?  This is his first year switching to a full-time lefty, and while the results are promising thus far, I think he'll slide back down to Earth shortly.  The fact that this is a rebuilding team with a plethora of outfielders doesn't make this decision any harder.

The problem is that other teams see that as a very possible (if not likely) development as well. You likely wouldn't be able to get a prospect with a projected upside of what Mullins is doing right now, with tons of control left. There's almost no way to make such a deal work for both sides.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a good thought too.  
 

At some point, decisions need to be made about a lot of guys.  You can’t play everyone and you don’t wait until their value is near zero before you do something with them.

Maybe Mullins is part of the future or maybe he is just hot right now.  You just need to wait and see what he does.

What do you think a team will give you for Mullins if he has a .900 OPS in July? A Top 100 player? Maybe 2? Wouldn’t it be better to just keep the guy who’s already producing at the ML level with 5 more years of team control?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

What do you think a team will give you for Mullins if he has a .900 OPS in July? A Top 100 player? Maybe 2? Wouldn’t it be better to just keep the guy who’s already producing at the ML level with 5 more years of team control?

I’d be shocked if we got that.  I’m thinking something in the area of 2 players in the 8-15 range in an organizations ranking and not from an organization that is really deep.

I mean, we will see right.  Just saying we saw that Mancini didn’t bring us overwhelming offers in 2019 and he was one of the best 30 offensive players in the league that year.

Of course, Mullins is at a key position and brings more to the game than just offense (assuming the offense continues), so that could definitely change things.

I just think teams will want to see more of him.

Is he a better player than Jackie Bradley Jr? JBJ had a 5 WAR season and the Sox kept him.  The year before that his WAR was 1.9 and in the 5 years since that year, his combined WAR had been 8.  Thats not a bad player but obviously a big drop off.  
 

Maybe if Boston dealt him after his 5+ WAR season, they save a lot of money long term and get back some really good players.  My guess is fans would have hated to see him dealt.  “He’s ready to break out”. “Star player”, etc.... but after that, he was merely a good asset to have around mainly because of his defense.  

 

[UMDTerrapins]

Seems like people are fixing on trading Mullins instead of Santander or Mancini, which seem far more likely. We just need them to get healthy and producing headed into the deadline. It’s easy to see why Stewart could be pressing a bit, knowing that when Santander returns he’s going to be seeing a lot less action. 

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d be shocked if we got that.  I’m thinking something in the area of 2 players in the 8-15 range in an organizations ranking and not from an organization that is really deep.

I mean, we will see right.  Just saying we saw that Mancini didn’t bring us overwhelming offers in 2019 and he was one of the best 30 offensive players in the league that year.

Of course, Mullins is at a key position and brings more to the game than just offense (assuming the offense continues), so that could definitely change things.

I just think teams will want to see more of him.

Is he a better player than Jackie Bradley Jr? JBJ had a 5 WAR season and the Sox kept him.  The year before that his WAR was 1.9 and in the 5 years since that year, his combined WAR had been 8.  Thats not a bad player but obviously a big drop off.  
 

Maybe if Boston dealt him after his 5+ WAR season, they save a lot of money long term and get back some really good players.  My guess is fans would have hated to see him dealt.  “He’s ready to break out”. “Star player”, etc.... but after that, he was merely a good asset to have around mainly because of his defense.  

 

I agree with this and think it’s all the more reason that he wouldn’t be a serious trade chip. Elias should start getting ready for .500ish baseball next season and ready to reinforce what’s missing in ‘23. 

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Why not?  This is his first year switching to a full-time lefty, and while the results are promising thus far, I think he'll slide back down to Earth shortly.  The fact that this is a rebuilding team with a plethora of outfielders doesn't make this decision any harder.

The why not is that for the team to turn the corner and become a winner the O's have to keep their best players. Mullins, Hays and Santander are their three best outfielders.  But Hays and Santander have both had injury problems so they need to keep a couple of good backup outfielders.   Two of McKenna, Diaz and Stewart need to stay.    

Mountcastle is not an outfielder except in a pinch.   He is a 1B/DH.  He actually looks pretty good at 1B.  Nice to see him look good defensive anywhere.  Kjerstad is off in the distance somewhere.  Probably at least two years away.  

With Adley coming next year if not before, the bullpen looking good  and enough starters  on the way to be contenders the O's look like they could turn the corner in 2022 or 2023.  

So Elias should not be trading his best players away.  I agree that Mullins in likely not going to continue to be a 350 hitter or a 900 OPS guy but he can hit 300/350/450/800 and play great defense in CF.   He was a 296 hitter in 2020 vs righties.  Now that he has figured out how to hit lefties he can maintain a 300 average.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The why not is that for the team to turn the corner and become a winner the O's have to keep their best players. Mullins, Hays and Santander are their three best outfielders.  But Hays and Santander have both had injury problems so they need to keep a couple of good backup outfielders.   Two of McKenna, Diaz and Stewart need to stay.    

Mountcastle is not an outfielder except in a pinch.   He is a 1B/DH.  He actually looks pretty good at 1B.  Nice to see him look good defensive anywhere.  Kjerstad is off in the distance somewhere.  Probably at least two years away.  

With Adley coming next year if not before, the bullpen looking good  and enough starters  on the way to be contenders the O's look like they could turn the corner in 2022 or 2023.  

So Elias should not be trading his best players away.  I agree that Mullins in likely not going to continue to be a 350 hitter or a 900 OPS guy but he can hit 300/350/450/800 and play great defense in CF.   He was a 296 hitter in 2020 vs righties.  Now that he has figured out how to hit lefties he can maintain a 300 average.

 

This is all very well said and all of this is pretty accurate although im Not sure we should be going as far as saying he can hit 300/350/450.  We just need to see a lot more before determining that.

All of that said, the Os can definitely still win at a high rate in the upcoming Years if they trade Mullins or anyone else on the roster.  It all goes back to value, what you can acquire and how the other guys develop. 
 

It definitely could be a situation where you trade Mullins and end up in better shape long term even if Mullins continues to be a good player.  
 

We just need more info on so many things.  This is an example of how much 2020 screwed us in terms of not being able to see more of all of these guys.

[Bahama O's Fan]

We have a lack of quality infielders in the system (not counting 1B). We have a lot of OF. You trade from your strength to help your weakness. If we are competitive in 2022 or 2023, we do not have the IF to do that. So trading one of those OF or 1B is a good idea. Right now, Mullins should bring back a good return, if he keeps up this streak. Just a thought.