Adley Rutschman 2021

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Adley just hit a dinger.   

Crushed a 3-2 curveball to right center.  Did not miss that one. Long homer.

[connja]

Funny, this thread gets more action when he strikes out than. when he hits homers.

[bpilktree]

11 minutes ago, connja said:

Funny, this thread gets more action when he strikes out than. when he hits homers.

I am not sure why that is surprising.  You can not know the score of the Orioles game and know what is going on by just looking at the game thread title.  If there is lot of pages Orioles are losing just a few pages we are winning.

[Aglets]

58 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

I am not sure why that is surprising.  You can not know the score of the Orioles game and know what is going on by just looking at the game thread title.  If there is lot of pages Orioles are losing just a few pages we are winning.

This is 1000% true.

[sevastras]

14 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Most discouraging thing is that he is certainly not young for AA ball

CJ Abrams now hitting .345, OPS .976 while playing the most premium defensive position (SS) at AA at the age of 20

That's what a top 10 pick  is supposed to do

If the Padres are going for it this fall he will probably be in the majors at the age of 20

You and I both wanted Abrams, now you and I can only hope that Means can be flipped for Abrams. Otherwise that ship has sailed. 
Everyone is pooping the bed over Adley not hitting. What a lot of people aren’t seeing is that he could be put in as the every day catcher right now and be a gold glove contender and a top half of the catchers in baseball with out hitting. When you pick 1.1 you hope for a Bryce Harper or Verlander, the reality is if you get a kid that makes it to the majors you did a pretty good job. Despite his struggles at the plate, Adley would be an upgrade over Severino and Sisco right now.  
I hope Adley becomes Buster Posey 2.0 and I think that is the hype everyone is expecting but also getting a major league player is better than some of the other high draft picks of the past.  (Billy Rowell, Matt Hobgood)

[Sports Guy]

Homer and 2 walks last night.  Happy to see the walks.  Maybe he is starting to see the ball better?

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, connja said:

Funny, this thread gets more action when he strikes out than. when he hits homers.

People expect him to be very good..they don’t expect him to look like a little leaguer.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, sevastras said:

When you pick 1.1 you hope for a Bryce Harper or Verlander, the reality is if you get a kid that makes it to the majors you did a pretty good job. Despite his struggles at the plate, Adley would be an upgrade over Severino and Sisco right now.  

48 of 55 1:1 picks have made the majors, and the other 7 include three recent draftees who will probably make the majors.   So I don’t consider merely drafting someone who makes the majors to be a “pretty good job.”   The mean for a 1:1 is about 19.7 rWAR (this includes the guys recently drafted and other guys still in the early/middle parts of their careers)   . The median is about 14.3, again including the ones who haven’t really gotten to the meat of their career.    Add in the fact that Rutschman was considered to be the clearest 1:1 since Harper.   I can easily say I’d be very disappointed with any outcome where Rutschman has less than a 20 WAR career, and realistically, he probably would need to be at 30+ before I’d be satisfied.    

As to his defense, I expect him to be good but I’m not going to accept any hype about how good he is right now.    We’ll see when he gets here.   I heard hype about his offense too, so why should I think the hype about his defense is more credible?

All this may sound like I’m down on Rutschman — I’m not.   But I had very high expectations for him and if he doesn’t meet them I’m not going to sugar coat it.    
 

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, sevastras said:

Everyone is pooping the bed over Adley not hitting.

If by everyone you mean the kind of people who are both really pessimistic and put full faith in 35 at bat samples as the truth.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

If by everyone you mean the kind of people who are both really pessimistic and put full faith in 35 at bat samples as the truth.

Thank goodness I'm only really pessimistic. 

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

48 of 55 1:1 picks have made the majors, and the other 7 include three recent draftees who will probably make the majors.   So I don’t consider merely drafting someone who makes the majors to be a “pretty good job.”   The mean for a 1:1 is about 19.7 rWAR (this includes the guys recently drafted and other guys still in the early/middle parts of their careers)   . The median is about 14.3, again including the ones who haven’t really gotten to the meat of their career.    Add in the fact that Rutschman was considered to be the clearest 1:1 since Harper.   I can easily say I’d be very disappointed with any outcome where Rutschman has less than a 20 WAR career, and realistically, he probably would need to be at 30+ before I’d be satisfied.    

As to his defense, I expect him to be good but I’m not going to accept any hype about how good he is right now.    We’ll see when he gets here.   I heard hype about his offense too, so why should I think the hype about his defense is more credible?

All this may sound like I’m down on Rutschman — I’m not.   But I had very high expectations for him and if he doesn’t meet them I’m not going to sugar coat it.    
 

If Matt Wieters had been a 1:1 he'd be almost exactly an average 1:1.  Ben McDonald's career is right at the median for a #1 overall. 

The expectation of fans is that every 1:1 becomes an inner circle Hall of Famer, but it's really more like a good regular for six or eight years.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If Matt Wieters had been a 1:1 he'd be almost exactly an average 1:1.  Ben McDonald's career is right at the median for a #1 overall. 

The expectation of fans is that every 1:1 becomes an inner circle Hall of Famer, but it's really more like a good regular for six or eight years.

Good thing we have Gunnar to salvage that draft.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good thing we have Gunnar to salvage that draft.

Sometimes it works out that way.   Our 1:1 McDonald wasn’t the expected Hall of Famer, but our 1:20 pick the following year (Mussina) was.    Good outcome from those two picks, just in the opposite order of what was expected.  

[OriolesMagic83]

9 hours ago, sevastras said:

You and I both wanted Abrams, now you and I can only hope that Means can be flipped for Abrams. Otherwise that ship has sailed. 
Everyone is pooping the bed over Adley not hitting. What a lot of people aren’t seeing is that he could be put in as the every day catcher right now and be a gold glove contender and a top half of the catchers in baseball with out hitting. When you pick 1.1 you hope for a Bryce Harper or Verlander, the reality is if you get a kid that makes it to the majors you did a pretty good job. Despite his struggles at the plate, Adley would be an upgrade over Severino and Sisco right now.  
I hope Adley becomes Buster Posey 2.0 and I think that is the hype everyone is expecting but also getting a major league player is better than some of the other high draft picks of the past.  (Billy Rowell, Matt Hobgood)

Adley failed before he even started.  He was in college when he was 20, instead of a top prospect in the minors.  Sad!

[Jammer7]

Reading through some of these posts, and here I am scratching my head at the over-reactions. Please, come back off the ledge. 

Development happens when prospects fail and are driven to succeed through the adjustments they need to make along the way. I will say that I do not like his swing right now, the upper cut is more pronounced than what I remember in college. I am not sure why anyone would teach that swing, honestly. But that aside, can we give him some time to adjust before we trash the face of the franchise? 

I liked Abrams a lot too. He was plan B for me.  But I would still take Adley over him.