Means trade comp

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I know a team at deadline has in theory better incentive to give up more because it’s one more year of contention. That said Means would also be attractive to a team this off-season who isn’t a contender this year but is ready to take that next step. I brought up Rays and Padres because they have best systems of the contenders.  
 

Seattle is one team that fits that description. 

Sure..KC is also possible.  
 

St Louis is another team that is possible.  Atlanta as well.

There will be suitors for sure.  
 

Tampa would be #1 on my list of teams to trade him to though.  He works for them because of his cost as well and no chance Elias cares about dealing him within the division.

[Camden_yardbird]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Padres could make a bunch of offers that we’d have to say yes to. Abrams as a centerpiece would be ideal, obviously. 

Abrams, Marcano, and Lange.  That would be a no brainer. 
 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/padres/

I was going to point this out. Since we are season we can speculate what this trade would look like given prospect lists.

There are a lot of non-starters in the top 15 prospects as far as teams who are not competitive and so would not trade for Means.  Three teams stick out to me and you have pointed out the SD trade package.  The other two are Atlanta and SF.  They would be centered around:

Atl: Pache, Shewmake, etc

SF: Luciano, Seth Corry, etc

I would think you would have to consider any of those three, with a darkhorse trade of Liberatore and Gorman (two top 30) being the last.

[UMDTerrapins]

One of my questions about dealing Means is that it’s rare to see an ace dealt with 3.5 years of control left. Usually guys are dealt with 2 years or less remaining. Will the return be substantially better with 3.5 years than it will be if they hold on to him for another year or so? And then there’s his age and likelihood that he can sustain his current level of success. And then there’s the GM fear factor of dealing an ace just before turning a rebuild into a contender and then very visibly needing the ace you just dealt for prospects the year before.
 

In the end, it all depends on the return. But I’d certainly be listening if I was Elias. 

[MurphDogg]

7 hours ago, vab said:

All day and twice on Sunday. We're a long way from just being garden variety bad let alone ready to compete with the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. Mancini too. 

The Orioles were merely garden variety bad literally two weeks ago.

[Greenpastures23]

Age is overrated in baseball to a degree, but I thought Mancini was only 27

[ChrisP]

Agree with the consensus...Thank him and trade him. If KC offers a package, at least consider sending him home. 

[Ripken]

For a 15, 75, and another good prospect?  Yeah.  Need one of the top 100 guys to be a pitcher.  The years of control are very valuable.  We suck something awful and I'm just not convinced he's going to keep this up.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, Abrams is possible because he is blocked.  Not sure the Pads will be in the Means market though.

The selling point to the Pads is that Means would help them win the division and home field throughout the playoffs. How ballsy does the SD GM get?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The selling point to the Pads is that Means would help them win the division and home field throughout the playoffs. How ballsy does the SD GM get?

I understand what the selling point is but they lead the majors in ERA by starters and have a boatload of depth coming up.  How many assets do you continue to put into that?  
 

They will have to trade guys next year at this rate.  They certainly may do it but I wouldn’t count on them as a suitor.

[oriole]

I was just thinking about how a Means trade would look...I think the earliest realistic year to maybe possibly be competitive is 2023. That would leave us 2 years of Means before he hits free agency. Hopefully our future window of contention is a lot longer than that.

With that being said...I don’t think there necessarily a wrong move to make other than trading him for too little right now. If someone comes along and says we’ll give you our two best prospects and they’re slated to be ready 22/23 then I think you gotta just make the trade. But if not then you keep Means and hopefully he is a stable veteran presence by 2023 that can anchor a young pitching staff. 

[joelala]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Earlier today, I had a Twitter back and forth with Kyle Glasser of BA.  He tweeted that the Os should build around Mancini and Means.

I disagreed with him but one thing he did say is that the Os would have to deal Means if they got a Jose Quintana return.

I had honestly forgotten about that trade.

To refresh your memory, the WS dealt Quintana to the Cubs for Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease and 2 other minor leaguers.  At the time of the trade, Jimenez was ranked 8th by MLB.com and Cease was #63.

Quintana was dealt in July 2017 and the Cubs had him through the 2020 season.  Quintana came to the Cubs having had a sub 4 ERA in the 5 seasons prior to the trade and had 4 straight 200 IP seasons.  The walk rate and HR rates  were low and the K rates were solid.

He was 28 at the time of the trade, which is how old Means is.

He entered that trade deadline with a better resume than Means although Means is on pace to enter the trade deadline with more success in that given year.   
 

 Is a top 15ish guy and another top 75 guy (and more) enough to say yes or do you still keep him?

This has been my stance. If we get this kind of package offered, we have absolutely no choice but to take it. It would make up for the criminally poor management of our last valuable trade assets and really, at least in theory, complete the prospect acquisition portion of our rebuild.

Hate to wish for an injury, but the only way we’d get Abrams from SD is if they lose one or more starters and get desperate, I’d think. I imagine they see him as their CF of the future.  

[TommyPickles]

I'd like them to build around Means. He's not a free agent until 2025. He could be a huge part of this team's 2023-2024 success. 

[Just Regular]

I think we'll hold Means as a mindset exemplar for everyone in the Org, plus he's the biggest piece in the Adley Supporting Cast, Years 2-4 of 7, for the time being.    I think the outlines of the Next Good Team are clear enough shortstop or pitcher might be how asks tilt.

If Royce Lewis and his hurt knee would hobble on to the flight, would you leave him in Minnesota?    The Jays might prefer Means to Alek Manoah in Yankee Stadium tomorrow night.    I see the Padres using Abrams at 2B some, and doubt he's any more available than Lux was for Machado.

Theo has the Red Sox Cubs thing, and the Gleyber selloff (structurally similar to Miller-E-Rod) for the best reliever worked.    I think he felt invincible by the time he doubled down on the title defense attempt, and the White Sox were in the right place at the right time.

[Three Run Homer]

I think Bedard might be a better comp for John Means than Quintana.  Quintana was a well established #3 starter, with no hope of being an ace.  Bedard was coming off a season in which he was unquestionably an ace, but without the track record of Quintana.  

In any event, both pitchers got an excellent haul (Bedard more so than Quintana) and I do think that the O's would have to make that trade if they had the opportunity.  You give up John Means' excellence now in return for a good shot at getting two excellent players a few years from now.   And SG is correct that we have to be looking for guys who are consensus top 100 players nationally, including one in the top 15 or so, not just the top two prospects from a mediocre system.  

[Orioles0615]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I understand what the selling point is but they lead the majors in ERA by starters and have a boatload of depth coming up.  How many assets do you continue to put into that?  
 

They will have to trade guys next year at this rate.  They certainly may do it but I wouldn’t count on them as a suitor.

They will do anything to fend off the Dodgers