2021 Orioles Draft Tracker

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Or, they got lucky in negotiations and were able to convince some guys to sign for significantly less than they thought.   And maybe they liked some of the cheaper guys better than the more expensive guys available.   I’m not saying I think that’s the most likely explanation, but it’s possible.  

If they end up with 500K left over because they misread the market that is also an issue.

[RZNJ]

Perhaps they screwed up.   Perhaps they are just pocketing money.  We'll see.   I've seen tidbits, I believe from Roch or Melewski, that suggested that they expected/hoped someone would drop to them as an overslot and it didn't happen but that the money saved would be spent.   Don't ask me.  I'll just wait until everything shakes out and wait for the explanation.   Seems improbable that any overslot on Rhodes/Willems/Craig will make up a significant difference on the savings so far.   Still, I believe that Cowser was their top choice at #5 with the added bonus that he was underslot.  They may have had a few names that they hoped would be there a few rounds later that would have been bigger overslots and it didn't happen.   That doesn't mean that Cowser was picked because he was underslot.     That is a connection that I think I lot of people are making a mistake in making.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Perhaps they screwed up.   Perhaps they are just pocketing money.  We'll see.   I've seen tidbits, I believe from Roch or Melewski, that suggested that they expected/hoped someone would drop to them as an overslot and it didn't happen but that the money saved would be spent.   Don't ask me.  I'll just wait until everything shakes out and wait for the explanation.   Seems improbable that any overslot on Rhodes/Willems/Craig will make up a significant difference on the savings so far.   Still, I believe that Cowser was their top choice at #5 with the added bonus that he was underslot.  They may have had a few names that they hoped would be there a few rounds later that would have been bigger overslots and it didn't happen.   That doesn't mean that Cowser was picked because he was underslot.     That is a connection that I think I lot of people are making a mistake in making.

I think this is what happened as well. Cowser fits the mold that the organization seems to love so it makes sense he was their pick. The other thing is this, what if your board has two players next to each other and basically rated the same, but one costs less money. Why would you not draft the guy that costs less money? 

I think some of the overslot guys they wanted were selected so they went with plan B which was BPA for them. It's pretty clear Elias/Sig's system values players differently then some other organization. It remains to be seen whether or not they are right. Time will be the only thing that proves them right or wrong. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I think this is what happened as well. Cowser fits the mold that the organization seems to love so it makes sense he was their pick. The other thing is this, what if your board has two players next to each other and basically rated the same, but one costs less money. Why would you not draft the guy that costs less money? 

I think some of the overslot guys they wanted were selected so they went with plan B which was BPA for them. It's pretty clear Elias/Sig's system values players differently then some other organization. It remains to be seen whether or not they are right. Time will be the only thing that proves them right or wrong. 

Yep.  And at the end of the day, it’s all about production.   If the class turns out well, I won’t be wringing my hands over speculation about process.   

[Sydnor]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they end up with 500K left over because they misread the market that is also an issue.

Agreed. If you “win” every negotiation or misread the market and leave $500K on the table, then you left talent on the table. 

[Hallas]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Or, they got lucky in negotiations and were able to convince some guys to sign for significantly less than they thought.   And maybe they liked some of the cheaper guys better than the more expensive guys available.   I’m not saying I think that’s the most likely explanation, but it’s possible.  

I think this is a reasonably likely explanation, and I also think that it's a possibility that you should plan for.  Maybe instead of drafting 8 college seniors in the back end of the draft, they could have drafted 7 and 1 extra lottery ticket that they might be able to sign if some of their picks sign for less than expected.

[Brian88]

A lot of signings but no details.

[Brian88]

Just now, Brian88 said:

A lot of signings but no details.

 

[interloper]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Perhaps they screwed up.   Perhaps they are just pocketing money.  We'll see.   I've seen tidbits, I believe from Roch or Melewski, that suggested that they expected/hoped someone would drop to them as an overslot and it didn't happen but that the money saved would be spent.   Don't ask me.  I'll just wait until everything shakes out and wait for the explanation.   Seems improbable that any overslot on Rhodes/Willems/Craig will make up a significant difference on the savings so far.   Still, I believe that Cowser was their top choice at #5 with the added bonus that he was underslot.  They may have had a few names that they hoped would be there a few rounds later that would have been bigger overslots and it didn't happen.   That doesn't mean that Cowser was picked because he was underslot.     That is a connection that I think I lot of people are making a mistake in making.

Great post. 

[RZNJ]

I could be wrong, but I think that leaves Rhodes (3), Burns (6), and Craig (20) as the only unsigned players.   Those could all be overslots which is why they might be taking a little longer.    Rhodes might have the most leverage and be the toughest to sign but I assume they all get done as Elias doesn't seem to have been blindsided by any previous draftees.

 

It looks like Daniel Lloyd (14) is also not signed yet.

[Sydnor]

Tavera was underslot

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I could be wrong, but I think that leaves Rhodes (3), Burns (6), and Craig (20) as the only unsigned players.   Those could all be overslots which is why they might be taking a little longer.    Rhodes might have the most leverage and be the toughest to sign but I assume they all get done as Elias doesn't seem to have been blindsided by any previous draftees.

It probably gets fun for the agents when their players are one of the last unsigned on a team and it’s known that the team is sitting on a good bit of leftover cash.  I’m sure the team will try to sit on the information about what the signed players received, though that information always seems to leak out.  

[interloper]

 

[RZNJ]

I actually thought there was an outside chance that Norby and Cowser might go all the way up to Aberdeen since they are both advanced hitters compared to the other draftees and there will be a considerable logjam of college players that will be stuck at the FCL Orioles, it seems.

[glenn__davis]

Read elsewhere that Willems is getting a million bucks.  If true (haven't seen any official sources) that certainly accounts for a lot of the underslot money.