Your 2022 FA Wish List

[Just Regular]

Below the Correa dream, I do think the Sutcliffe character to Rodriguez and Hall's Mussina/McDonald is a puzzle piece for the 2022 team.

FG's crowdsourced Cole Hamels for like $13M last offseason; teams said Nah, he's taking $1M for a temp job.   Would he accept something like $6-9M to pitch a few months, then go to a good team if the '22 Orioles aren't one.

If the Matt Harvey 5-star review woos Syndergaard here (we are one of the few that could give him that Opening Day ego boost), I think in keeping with Drungo's sensible Rays rule we should call him Charlie "Thor"ton.    Syndergaard's career to date does give me some Pirates Gerrit Cole vibes, and I could imagine Elias bidding strongly for him if he has more than Hamels money but less than Correa money.    Some of our negotiating lure there might be that we aren't even trying to get that Year 2 option - just come blow away the AL East if you can, see what we can do for you, and then we'll talk.

[Ruzious]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Honest question.  Do you think, from stickily a profitably standpoint, that is a gamble that is likely to pay off?  Wouldn't it make more sense to wait?

Yes, it should pay off - maybe not right away but eventually.  I think it's more risky to not spend money and to permanently lose fans.  The people that post here are mostly lifers, but the majority of baseball fans can actually find something better to do and develop other hobbies.  And the young folks that are not getting their introduction into the game, are the non-fans of tomorrow.  Even people like me have completely stopped buying Orioles merchandise - no O'schise.  Living equadistant between DC and Baltimore, I don't even like the Nats, but I bought a big supply of Nats masks for friends and relatives, because people respect the Nats and like them.  The O's have been a joke for years now.  The product matters.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Yes, it should pay off - maybe not right away but eventually.  I think it's more risky to not spend money and to permanently lose fans.  The people that post here are mostly lifers, but the majority of baseball fans can actually find something better to do and develop other hobbies.  And the young folks that are not getting their introduction into the game, are the non-fans of tomorrow.  Even people like me have completely stopped buying Orioles merchandise - no O'schise.  Living equadistant between DC and Baltimore, I don't even like the Nats, but I bought a big supply of Nats masks for friends and relatives, because people respect the Nats and like them.  The O's have been a joke for years now.  The product matters.  

I disagree with your position but you stated your argument well.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

Given the payroll the O's have and have had for the last few seasons - other than Chris Davis - who should be covered by insurance - if they can't afford one reasonably high-priced free agent, they shouldn't be in the business.  

Sure, but I wouldn't do that now. No high-priced free agent is coming to Baltimore after a 60-something win season, not for a sensible cost.  Sensible meaning some non-zero chance of it not being a trainwreck.

[Camden_yardbird]

On 8/4/2021 at 9:11 PM, emmett16 said:

I like the idea of Turner next year as the initial big splash a la Jason Werth 2011.  I know it will never happen, but would be amazing.  East Coast guy, complete stud, gamechanger, and stick it to the Nat's.  Turner would bring back some former O's fans. 

The problem with this is supply and demand.  The supply this year at SS is nuts, and the supply next year is not.  Waiting for Turner next year would mean the Orioles would have to compete with the games biggest juggernaut for his services.  

IMO, the Orioles should identify a SS they want to give a 4-6 year deal to and go get them.  The supply should help.

The Orioles can't wait until the prospect team starts competing to start adding to a playoff team, that just not how the game works.  You dont build playoff squads in a year.  You have to draw talent from all sources and that includes free agency.  You have to iterate, and that takes time.

[Ohfan67]

I would like to see two decent starting pitchers signed, but I don't think it will happen. I think there will be another year of flyers and dumpster diving. They may sign another solid fielding short stop on a one year deal to flip at the deadline. 

[NCRaven]

16 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I would like to see two decent starting pitchers signed, but I don't think it will happen. I think there will be another year of flyers and dumpster diving. They may sign another solid fielding short stop on a one year deal to flip at the deadline. 

The problem this season has been disappointing performances by starting pitchers like Akin, Wells, Lowther, and Kremer; along with Zimmerman's injury.  It they had shown the promise that we thought some of them might have, we wouldn't need to be trying to sign starting pitching.  We could sign a veteran pitcher, but I doubt that it will be a high-priced one.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

The problem with this is supply and demand.  The supply this year at SS is nuts, and the supply next year is not.  Waiting for Turner next year would mean the Orioles would have to compete with the games biggest juggernaut for his services.  

IMO, the Orioles should identify a SS they want to give a 4-6 year deal to and go get them.  The supply should help.

The Orioles can't wait until the prospect team starts competing to start adding to a playoff team, that just not how the game works.  You did build playoff squads in a year.  You have to draw talent from all sources and that includes free agency.  You have to iterate, and that takes time.

The Tejada deal comes to mind. Did not turn us into a contender but we at least got our money's worth. At least there is a precedent. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The Tejada deal comes to mind. Did not turn us into a contender but we at least got our money's worth. At least there is a precedent. 

Went from 71 to 78 wins.  Attendance jump by 280K.  Of course by 2006 it was lower than it was in 2003.

[Just Regular]

Lance Lynn sold his services recently for about $20M/year, as a start on next year's UFA starting pitchers.

Here are some groupings from Sportac, sorted by this year's salary.

Tier 1 ($30M and up)- Greinke, Scherzer, Verlander, Kersaw

Tier 2 ($15M-$20M) - Stroman, Gausman, Duffy, Morton, Cobb

Tier 3 ($10M-$11M) - Kluber, Smyly, Pineda, Syndergaard

Obviously some of those 2021 price points are FA, and others last year of Arb, but still gives a rough approximation of who the league thought these guys were an offseason ago.

8 - Davies, Paxton, Bundy, Eduardo, Ray, Kazmir, Quintana, Happ, Wainwright, Lyles

5-7 - Heaney, Archer, Gray, DeSclafani, Matz

Notables <5: Rodon, Hamels, oh fine Matt Harvey

I thought Kevin Gausman may have been making himself the most $$$ in the world this year, but this exercise....Carlos Rodon, oh man.   He's kind of doing that Carlos Correa pedigree - wait, I better be awesome once beforehand thing.

Anyway, Syndergaard for unharnessed talent, and Hamels for Sutcliffe-ian gravitas are my favorites if Elias has something in ~$10M give or take a few either way ballpark.   I guess Syndergaard similar to Buxton as a how on earth do you peg that guy fairly type?

[Can_of_corn]

I'm guessing Hamels is just going for a ring.

[Just Regular]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Went from 71 to 78 wins.  Attendance jump by 280K.  Of course by 2006 it was lower than it was in 2003.

Obviously in entertaining fanciful Correa hopes, apart from the Elias angle (and my memory of his comments about thinking about how to staff the team up the middle being on his mind every night in his introductory press conference), the Tejada precedent is part of it.    Also I suppose that that Oriole franchise record of 7/161 might be a decent Over/Under today.

The 2003 Orioles talent base was Ponson, BJ Ryan, Brian Roberts and that Bigbie/Matos/Gibbons OF juggernaut.    The 2022 and on Orioles I think have a lot more to offer a player of proven excellence for the 27-33 part of their career, and revenue-wise for ownership, attendance gains only sustain if you win.

 

 

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm guessing Hamels is just going for a ring.

What, career to date earnings marginal million #211 isn't life changing money?!

Him as a target to me just pre-supposes that after a year off and some October adrenaline, he feels like being an Opening Day starter in 2022.    Not a lot of spots in the league he can do that, just like Freddy Galvis, starting SS, of 2021.

[sportsfan8703]

Grow the bats. Buy the arms with the bats in trades. I just don’t think we have the inventory of bats yet. Kjerstad will help. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

As a precursor to competitiveness, I like the idea of ~2 mid-range 2-3 year deals. Something like a solid #3 starter and a veteran SS (Brandon Crawford would have fit the bill if he wasn't doing so well this year). Issue with any position players is that we have some talent coming up through the minors that you don't want to potentially block. OF is somewhere this isn't as much of an issue, but we have a lot of young OF who need to get trials. Always have a place for pitchers.

 

Scherzer will be 37 next year. Could he be had for 3 years / $75M?