Josh Rogers Another Great Start

[Tony-OH]

While it's easy to jump on the OP for screwing up the name in the thread, let's look at Roger's stuff compared to Alex Wells and Zac Lowther. Note, less is better when it comes to vertical movement (drop) on fastball. More is better on other pitches.

Fastball       vel     spin   Ext    Whiff%    drop (V)   break (H)  XWOBA
Rogers         90.5  2060  6.1     16.2          18                11.4         .346    
Wells            88.9  2149  5.8     16.9          16.6              7.8         .381
Lowther       90.7  2175  7.0     15.2          17.9             12.1         .499

Change       
Rogers         80.6  1415    6.1    15.0          34.6            12.5         .202 
Wells            83.6  1557    5.6    20.0         30.2            14.2         .459
Lowther       83.3  1888   6.9    27.6         27.5             13.6         .374

Slider   
Rogers         81.0   2133    6.1    25.0         40.3             2.1          .302
Wells            81.4  2317     5.6   26.2         38.0             1.6          .310
Lowther       80.9  2628    6.7   48.0        36.2            14.1         .273

Curve
Wells           73.0  2503     5.4    13.2        63.3              9.9         .484
Lowther      75.2  2553    6.8     31.8          63.6                13.0          .320

Rogers only threw one curve so I didn't include that. Worth noting is the speed difference between his change and fastball vs Wells and Lowther's harder changes. Rogers change drops way more and is about 1o MPH difference from his fastball making it a much better pitch than either Wells or Lowther's change. 

Lowther has the best slider, but Rogers get's more drop. Lowther's fastball looks better in movement, velocity and release, but his location has gotten him hammered. 

Either way, it's only been three starts for Rogers, but he was given away for free.

Personally, I'd take Lowther's stuff over Wells and Rogers and yes, I do think the other shoe will drop against Rogers unless he suddenly has come up with plus plus command of his fastball and change. 

Oh, Rogers is 26, Lowther 25, Wells 24. Based off statcast movement and velocity, I'd take Rogers over Wells but Lowther over them both despite the bad XWOBAs.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

When Ed Rodgers was let go, I posted a few times I thought it was bizarre. He was coming off a major injury and never had enough of a routine to evaluate. When Nationals signed him (with a very good GM with a scouting background) grabbed him, I noticed. He pitched 7 2/3 innings tonight of 1 run ball and now has an ERA of 2 and has had 4 good starts. Meanwhile we have 4A fodder & guys that won’t make the 40 man through the off-season. Why wasn’t he given more time?

Moderator edit (Josh Rogers)

He’s terrible. If he’s NOT terrible for someone else I don’t care. Lots of guys have a dead cat bounce.

Parker Bridwell went to the Angels on a waiver claim and went 10-3… and hasn’t been back since.

Im not worried about losing Josh Rogers

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Philip said:

He’s terrible. If he’s NOT terrible for someone else I don’t care. Lots of guys have a dead cat bounce.

Parker Bridwell went to the Angels on a waiver claim and went 10-3… and hasn’t been back since.

Im not worried about losing Josh Rogers

Some people here will remember my history with Bridwell.   I don’t think he was likely to amount to anything much, but in fairness to him, he suffered a serious injury the year after his 10-3 season, so we’ll never know if he could have sustained his success if he’d been healthy.   He had bone spurs removed and a stem cell injection but he was never the same.   

[Philip]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Some people here will remember my history with Bridwell.   I don’t think he was likely to amount to anything much, but in fairness to him, he suffered a serious injury the year after his 10-3 season, so we’ll never know if he could have sustained his success if he’d been healthy.   He had bone spurs removed and a stem cell injection but he was never the same.   

Well, frankly, I was completely furious that we let him go. And I said frequently that even if he was terrible after going 10-3, at least he went 10-3, And we let him go at a time when we didn’t even have five reliable starters. I spent that whole season being furious with Buck and Dan, and I’m glad they’re gone.

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Some people here will remember my history with Bridwell.   I don’t think he was likely to amount to anything much, but in fairness to him, he suffered a serious injury the year after his 10-3 season, so we’ll never know if he could have sustained his success if he’d been healthy.   He had bone spurs removed and a stem cell injection but he was never the same.   

That’s a pretty good take.

Again, my dad in CA watches every Angels game, sometimes even the replay! He’s the harshest critic I know and he said Bridwell never looked the same after the injury. Only anecdotal, but the injury was very real and it likely ended his career. 

[Il BuonO]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Rogers only threw one curve so I didn't include that. Worth noting is the speed difference between his change and fastball vs Wells and Lowther's harder changes. Rogers change drops way more and is about 10 MPH difference from his fastball making it a much better pitch than either Wells or Lowther. 

So, also interesting to note that a few years back there were a few pitchers (very few) who experimented with just slightly dropping the differential from their FBs to the five mph range, the “hard” change, as it were. Greinke, was the most notable, but their were others. And now that’s all he does, which is fine at this stage of his career. 

As the old saying goes, though, pitching is about changing speeds (and probably eye level along with command), but it ain’t easy. Ask any of the “pitchers” the Orioles have run out there this year besides Means, and I’m sure they can attest.

I’ve always liked around 10 mph off the FB as a good range. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Il BuonO
Space

[ChosenOne21]

You know who else had like 4 good starts this year? Spenser Watkins

[CarrRun49]

Can you guys believe the Orioles let Hanser Alberto walk for free? In his last 7 games he's batting .474 with an OPS of 1.132.  Do you think they should have given him a longer look?

[waroriole]

14 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

Can you guys believe the Orioles let Hanser Alberto walk for free? In his last 7 games he's batting .474 with an OPS of 1.132.  Do you think they should have given him a longer look?

He is .759 on the season vs LHP. Could’ve filled a hole at 2B

[CarrRun49]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

He is .759 on the season vs LHP. Could’ve filled a hole at 2B

FORGOT THE GREEN FONT

[jamalshw]

Not to derail too much, but now that we are several years removed from the Yaz situation, even with his strong season in 2019 and really good 2020, I prefer our OF to Yaz. This year, Hays and Yaz have a similar OPS, but Hays is obviously much younger. And while Santander has had a down year, the age factor plays in there as well. Mancini even has a (slight) age advantage over him. He would have been better than guys we sent out there the last couple years, but the team would have still been terrible. And for the future, he's not really a great fit. We made a huge deal about his loss, but in the grand scheme of things, it really didn't have much of an impact on the franchise. 

[Moose Milligan]

I also gotta think this is an excellent troll job, too.  

[jabba72]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

While it's easy to jump on the OP for screwing up the name in the thread, let's look at Roger's stuff compared to Alex Wells and Zac Lowther. Note, less is better when it comes to vertical movement (drop) on fastball. More is better on other pitches.

Fastball       vel     spin   Ext    Whiff%    drop (V)   break (H)  XWOBA
Rogers         90.5  2060  6.1     16.2          18                11.4         .346    
Wells            88.9  2149  5.8     16.9          16.6              7.8         .381
Lowther       90.7  2175  7.0     15.2          17.9             12.1         .499

Change       
Rogers         80.6  1415    6.1    15.0          34.6            12.5         .202 
Wells            83.6  1557    5.6    20.0         30.2            14.2         .459
Lowther       83.3  1888   6.9    27.6         27.5             13.6         .374

Slider   
Rogers         81.0   2133    6.1    25.0         40.3             2.1          .302
Wells            81.4  2317     5.6   26.2         38.0             1.6          .310
Lowther       80.9  2628    6.7   48.0        36.2            14.1         .273

Curve
Wells           73.0  2503     5.4    13.2        63.3              9.9         .484
Lowther      75.2  2553    6.8     31.8          63.6                13.0          .320

Rogers only threw one curve so I didn't include that. Worth noting is the speed difference between his change and fastball vs Wells and Lowther's harder changes. Rogers change drops way more and is about 1o MPH difference from his fastball making it a much better pitch than either Wells or Lowther's change. 

Lowther has the best slider, but Rogers get's more drop. Lowther's fastball looks better in movement, velocity and release, but his location has gotten him hammered. 

Either way, it's only been three starts for Rogers, but he was given away for free.

Personally, I'd take Lowther's stuff over Wells and Rogers and yes, I do think the other shoe will drop against Rogers unless he suddenly has come up with plus plus command of his fastball and change. 

Oh, Rogers is 26, Lowther 25, Wells 24. Based off statcast movement and velocity, I'd take Rogers over Wells but Lowther over them both despite the bad XWOBAs.

I think the changeup speed is the difference. It increases Rogers effectiveness when contrasted with his fastball. Lowther and Wells need to come up with a slower changeup, IMO. Thats my laymen's take.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, jabba72 said:

I think the changeup speed is the difference. It increases Rogers effectiveness when contrasted with his fastball. Lowther and Wells need to come up with a slower changeup, IMO. Thats my laymen's take.

I've been saying for years that Well's and Lowther's changeups are too hard. Not everyone is going to have a John Means' changeup but you would think they would have been able to improve the pitch somehow by now. Makes me think just can't find a grip they can use effectively to get the 10 MPH difference and be able to command the pitch. 

I have the same issue with Drew Rom right now.

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

Not to derail too much, but now that we are several years removed from the Yaz situation, even with his strong season in 2019 and really good 2020, I prefer our OF to Yaz. This year, Hays and Yaz have a similar OPS, but Hays is obviously much younger. And while Santander has had a down year, the age factor plays in there as well. Mancini even has a (slight) age advantage over him. He would have been better than guys we sent out there the last couple years, but the team would have still been terrible. And for the future, he's not really a great fit. We made a huge deal about his loss, but in the grand scheme of things, it really didn't have much of an impact on the franchise. 

I agree with this. Yaz will be 31 next year. His age is getting dangerously close to the end of his everyday career. He does have hall of fame bloodlines though, so you never know how long his career will last.