Buy The Arms, The Astro Way!

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I'm terrible at these types of things.  But I'd target Greinke, Gray, Stroman, and Syndergaard on one year deals.   As I said before they'd need to target mercenary style players and as a casual fan I have no way of learning that info.  I do know if highest annual value is on table(which would help players union in future negotiations), the union would put pressure on pitcher to take that deal.  

I don't think they could afford/lure players like Scherzer, Ray, or Kershaw.  And I imagine Kevin Gausman will never come back to this organization unless his life depended on it.  

I don’t see any of those guys taking a 1 year deal this offseason but if they did it would be to win a WS. I think the only incentive we can offer is to overpay in years and dollars. Plus we don’t exactly play in a pitchers park. You can’t really build up your value here on a 1 year deal. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see any of those guys taking a 1 year deal this offseason but if they did it would be to win a WS. I think the only incentive we can offer is to overpay in years and dollars. Plus we don’t exactly play in a pitchers park. You can’t really build up your value here on a 1 year deal. 

Teams have all the data, they can adjust for park factors.  I don't think pitchers can fool teams by pitching in a pitcher's park in a contract season.

[emmett16]

55 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see any of those guys taking a 1 year deal this offseason but if they did it would be to win a WS. I think the only incentive we can offer is to overpay in years and dollars. Plus we don’t exactly play in a pitchers park. You can’t really build up your value here on a 1 year deal. 

But you could make more money in 1 year than your colleagues.  And if you are successful you are going to get more money the following year.  

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Yossarian said:

Looking at their staff and salaries for this year:

Greinke - $35M

Verlandaer - $33M

Odorizzi - $9M

Pressly - 8.75M

McKullers - $7.08M

Baez - $4.75M

Montero - $2.25M

Raley - $2M

Garcia - $1.9M

Stanek - $1.1M

15 others making a combined $7.48M

Will the O's ever spend like that for arms to compete?

 

 

Might be lucky to get the Angelos brothers to spend that for the whole team.

[Moose Milligan]

I never understood why anyone would want to "buy the arms" when they're extremely expensive and will most likely break down at some point.

I'd rather "grow the arms" like Tampa does or the Astros have done as @Can_of_corn has illustrated.  And I'd rather "grow the bats," too.  You weirdos make it sound like it's some stupid exclusive thing, like you can't grow pitching if you're going to grow hitting.  Or you can't grow hitting if you decide to focus on arms.

Wake up, you can do whatever you want.  

ASTROS MODEL! OMMGGG 

No, RAYS MODEL ARRRRRRRGGGGGHHHH

GROW THE ARMS BUY THE BATS!!!!

ASTROOOOOOSSSS MODEELLLLLLLL WE MUST DO IT LIKE THEY DID BECAUSE ELIAAAAAASSSSS

Maybe Elias is going to make smart moves wherever he can in order to build the best franchise possible and not be beholden to any one stupid f'ing model.  Maybe.  Just maybe.  

 

 

[emmett16]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I never understood why anyone would want to "buy the arms" when they're extremely expensive and will most likely break down at some point.

I'd rather "grow the arms" like Tampa does or the Astros have done as @Can_of_corn has illustrated.  And I'd rather "grow the bats," too.  You weirdos make it sound like it's some stupid exclusive thing, like you can't grow pitching if you're going to grow hitting.  Or you can't grow hitting if you decide to focus on arms.

Wake up, you can do whatever you want.  

ASTROS MODEL! OMMGGG 

No, RAYS MODEL ARRRRRRRGGGGGHHHH

GROW THE ARMS BUY THE BATS!!!!

ASTROOOOOOSSSS MODEELLLLLLLL WE MUST DO IT LIKE THEY DID BECAUSE ELIAAAAAASSSSS

Maybe Elias is going to make smart moves wherever he can in order to build the best franchise possible and not be beholden to any one stupid f'ing model.  Maybe.  Just maybe.  

 

 

Of course you can do whatever you want.  The last three drafts have been overwhelmingly hitter heavy which creates speculation on a message board  full of dudes following the worst team in baseball. 

4 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Perhaps.  But you OP points out that 60% of the SP from 2018 Astros were acquired from other teams.  You also pointed out that Astros tried to develop their own pitching and failed, thus separating the strategies employed by the Orioles currently.  So it doesn't seem they are 'slavishly following a certain model'.   What Elias' master plan is we can only guess at and watch play out.   

BTW bourbon or beer this evening?  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Might be lucky to get the Angelos brothers to spend that for the whole team.

And that's just for Greinke's salary and maybe a portion of Verlander's. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I never understood why anyone would want to "buy the arms" when they're extremely expensive and will most likely break down at some point.

I'd rather "grow the arms" like Tampa does or the Astros have done as @Can_of_corn has illustrated.  And I'd rather "grow the bats," too.  You weirdos make it sound like it's some stupid exclusive thing, like you can't grow pitching if you're going to grow hitting.  Or you can't grow hitting if you decide to focus on arms.

Wake up, you can do whatever you want.  

ASTROS MODEL! OMMGGG 

No, RAYS MODEL ARRRRRRRGGGGGHHHH

GROW THE ARMS BUY THE BATS!!!!

ASTROOOOOOSSSS MODEELLLLLLLL WE MUST DO IT LIKE THEY DID BECAUSE ELIAAAAAASSSSS

Maybe Elias is going to make smart moves wherever he can in order to build the best franchise possible and not be beholden to any one stupid f'ing model.  Maybe.  Just maybe.  

 

 

I want them to follow one model and one model only…be intelligent with your decisions.

Thats it.  Mistakes will be made, guys will get hurt and guys won’t develop.  You will also get lucky with guys you didn’t expect (ala Means and Mullins).

But just keep being smart.

 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Teams have all the data, they can adjust for park factors.  I don't think pitchers can fool teams by pitching in a pitcher's park in a contract season.

Saw a really interesting feature on Baseball Savant the other day.  They look at every ball a player hit and calculate how many homers he would have hit if he’d played all his games in each of the 30 ballparks.   The only downside is it’s done strictly on the dimensions of the park and where the ball was hit, without accounting for whether the ball travels further at certain ballparks (cough - Coors - cough).   So for example, they calculate that Mountcastle (33 homers) would have hit 34 homers if he played all his games in Seattle, but only 18 if he played all his games in Kansas City.   They do it for pitchers, too.    According to them, John Means (31 homers allowed) would have allowed 36 homers in Seattle, but only 12 in KC.

[now]

This conversation never goes away, but it always comes back to the same variable: pitchers get injured more often than hitters. However, conclusions and implications for strategy are also variable:

Free agents & trades--Durable pitchers are more scarce, hence more valuable. 

Drafting--Drafting pitchers is more risky: but does that mean draft fewer to lessen the risk, or draft more to cover the attrition?

Int'l/Amateurs--Get BPAs, but also load up on cheap pitching prospects/projects

Personally, I find having endured the failure of so much "cavalry" (especially 1998-2011, but essentially the whole era spanning from Ben McDonald to Grayson) leaves me leaning hard on the opposite, call it the Rangers model: Grow the Bats (not that it ever did them any good).

 

[byrdz]

Why do we think the Orioles aren’t trying to grow the arms? Serious question.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, byrdz said:

Why do we think the Orioles aren’t trying to grow the arms? Serious question.

The drafts under Elias.

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The drafts under Elias.

Sure but we've also gotten a lot of arms in trades.  Isn't it growing the arms to some extent if you trade for Bradish, Peek, Pinto, and Brnovich.  There's also no doubt they are signing pitchers in Latin America.   There also doesn't seem to be (correct me if I'm wrong) a lot of highly drafted pitchers that we passed on that look all that great.

[Can_of_corn]

46 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sure but we've also gotten a lot of arms in trades.  Isn't it growing the arms to some extent if you trade for Bradish, Peek, Pinto, and Brnovich.  There's also no doubt they are signing pitchers in Latin America.   There also doesn't seem to be (correct me if I'm wrong) a lot of highly drafted pitchers that we passed on that look all that great.

I haven't been looking real close but given when the Orioles have been picking any pitcher that has been doing well is one that the O's passed on. 

[Sports Guy]

54 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sure but we've also gotten a lot of arms in trades.  Isn't it growing the arms to some extent if you trade for Bradish, Peek, Pinto, and Brnovich.  There's also no doubt they are signing pitchers in Latin America.   There also doesn't seem to be (correct me if I'm wrong) a lot of highly drafted pitchers that we passed on that look all that great.

https://www.milb.com/player/max-meyer-676974