2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[now]

Can anyone recap Ben McDonald's comments on the draft in last night's Angels game? (My computer audio was too low to catch most of it). It sounded like he was predicting the O's picking some pitchers high. I wonder if he is privy to some inside info.

For context, here are the draft rounds of our current starters:

Lyles 1:38 (Hou, 2008)

Voth 5 (Wash, 2013)

Kremer 14 (LAD, 2016)

Wells 15 (Twins, 2016)

Watkins 30 (Det, 2014)

All these guys being castoffs from other organizations, it shows you can get serviceable starters without the prohibitive odds of drafting and developing your own. That being said, who are the likely picks on Big Ben's radar?

[RVAOsFan]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Personally, I would look college pitching in the competitive balance rounds.

College pitchers with our 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks is my preference.

[RVAOsFan]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They are obviously going position player first.  After that, I don’t want to see them square peg/round hole picks just because we need pitching.  If the BPA is a pitcher, get him but if you have some highly ranked position player there, I don’t take a pitcher over him just because we need pitching.

I normally would agree with the BPA approach but I think the position player vs pitching talent is so disproportionate right now they need to load up on pitchers, preferably college pitchers.  Mocks seem to have a bunch of college pitchers coming off the board 30-60 lets grab some of those guys.

Position player 1:1 though obviously.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I normally would agree with the BPA approach but I think the position player vs pitching talent is so disproportionate right now they need to load up on pitchers, preferably college pitchers.  Mocks seem to have a bunch of college pitchers coming off the board 30-60 lets grab some of those guys.

Position player 1:1 though obviously.

Let’s say it’s their turn to pick at 33..and on their board, they have a position player who they have as a top 20 guy and the next pitcher is 35th on their board.  You gotta take the top 20 guy.

If it’s real close, that may be different.

My main point is that I don’t want them to reach for a guy just because they pitch.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, now said:

Can anyone recap Ben McDonald's comments on the draft in last night's Angels game? (My computer audio was too low to catch most of it). It sounded like he was predicting the O's picking some pitchers high. I wonder if he is privy to some inside info.

For context, here are the draft rounds of our current starters:

Lyles 1:38 (Hou, 2008)

Voth 5 (Wash, 2013)

Kremer 14 (LAD, 2016)

Wells 15 (Twins, 2016)

Watkins 30 (Det, 2014)

All these guys being castoffs from other organizations, it shows you can get serviceable starters without the prohibitive odds of drafting and developing your own. That being said, who are the likely picks on Big Ben's radar?

He was suggesting that so many pitchers were injured that it was likely the Orioles with their supplemental pick would pick one of them.   I think Prielipp was a pitcher he suggested might still be around.  He also mentioned Lesko but suggested he likely would be gone based upon chatter.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He was suggesting that so many pitchers were injured that it was likely the Orioles with their supplemental pick would pick one of them.   I think Prielipp was a pitcher he suggested might still be around.  He also mentioned Lesko but suggested he likely would be gone based upon chatter.  

I heard Prielipp likely won't be there at 33 as he's back from his TJ and was able to throw for scouts.   I think he was a potential top ten pick at one point.   He would be a good get if he's there.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not a chance.  One thing has always been true in baseball, and always will be true: you judge a player based on the combination of how many runs he adds on offense and how many he takes away on defense.   Mark Belanger was a 40 WAR player.   That guy is not going to be a utility player in any era, so long as GMs and managers have a brain in their head.   

Now Mateo is another story.  I agree he’s on thin ice.  
 

My only problem with your argument is that you accumulate WAR in much the same way you accumulate hits or putouts.  Belanger accumulated lots of WAR because he was allowed to play a lot of games over a lot of years.  Personally, I don't believe he would be given the chance to play that many games if he was just starting out today with his offensive profile.  Loved Belanger, just not sure he would have had the same opportunity in 2022 as he had in the 60's and 70's.

[RVAOsFan]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s say it’s their turn to pick at 33..and on their board, they have a position player who they have as a top 20 guy and the next pitcher is 35th on their board.  You gotta take the top 20 guy.

If it’s real close, that may be different.

My main point is that I don’t want them to reach for a guy just because they pitch.

if that scenario plays out then sure go top 20 guy.  Otherwise I want to see some college pitchers getting drafted early and often.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

My only problem with your argument is that you accumulate WAR in much the same way you accumulate hits or putouts.  Belanger accumulated lots of WAR because he was allowed to play a lot of games over a lot of years.  Personally, I don't believe he would be given the chance to play that many games if he was just starting out today with his offensive profile.  Loved Belanger, just not sure he would have had the same opportunity in 2022 as he had in the 60's and 70's.

See, I think this is wrong.  Players get opportunities when managers see that they are helping the team win.  You don’t get the opportunity to accumulate 40 WAR by being a bad player who the manager keeps sticking in the lineup for reasons unrelated to merit.   In Belanger’s case, you get the opportunities by saving many more runs with your glove than you’re giving away with your bat.   And I think the same logic applies today.  

Now, I’ll say this: shortstops today get about 25% fewer chances than they did in 1970, so there are fewer chances to save runs with your glove.  Maybe Belanger would have been more like a 35 win player rather than 41.   But that would still easily have him in the lineup as a regular for more than a decade.  No way in hell he’s a utility player. 
 

[LookinUp]

Re: take BPA versus targeting pitching.

1. I think they might take the pitcher if Sig's computer rankings are close.

2. I think Sig's computer rankings ascribe a lot of risk to pitchers.

3. I think we'll still pass on pitchers that people on this board, and even other teams, think are BPA or close to it but that our own models don't.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Re: take BPA versus targeting pitching.

1. I think they might take the pitcher if Sig's computer rankings are close.

2. I think Sig's computer rankings ascribe a lot of risk to pitchers.

3. I think we'll still pass on pitchers that people on this board, and even other teams, think are BPA or close to it but that our own models don't.

I think Elias docks pitchers additional points after Sig's models are done with them.

[WI O’s Fan]

Just listened to Jim Callis latest podcast. His guest was saying Sig is a big fan of Brooks Lee as he is the top player on his model board. Comps to Alex Bregman.

[Paul in Virginia]

2022 MLB Draft - Top 600 Prospects — Prospects Live

 

Green now at 2, Holiday at 3, Lee at 4, Collier at 5.

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

16 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Re: take BPA versus targeting pitching.

1. I think they might take the pitcher if Sig's computer rankings are close.

2. I think Sig's computer rankings ascribe a lot of risk to pitchers.

3. I think we'll still pass on pitchers that people on this board, and even other teams, think are BPA or close to it but that our own models don't.

Wikipedia:

2005, Sig Mejdal was recruited to do sabermetrics for the St. Louis Cardinals' new analytics department.^[12] He took 22 months of data from college baseball games and ran it through an algorithm to determine the likely performance and stats baseball players would achieve.^[13] According to Sports Illustrated, "[o]ver the next seven seasons the Cardinals would draft more players who became big leaguers than any other organization."^[4] He was promoted to senior quantitative analyst in 2008^[14] and director of amateur draft analysis in January 2011.^[15][16] Mejdal created a formula to predict the risk of injury to baseball players^[17] and contributed a section on injury probability to The Bill James Handbook.^[18]

 

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sig_Mejdal}

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

9 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

2022 MLB Draft - Top 600 Prospects — Prospects Live

 

Green now at 2, Holiday at 3, Lee at 4, Collier at 5.

 

And Johnson at 7. Most overhyped prospect of this draft imo.