2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[Jammer7]

4 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Brooks Lee apparently.

Thanks. I went back and read it again. I could not find another source on that, but I did discover he had a serious hamstring and knee injury in 2019.

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-prospect-brooks-lee-learned-from-father-coach-larry-lee

[forphase1]

6 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Without question, that’s Jones. With Holiday, Lee good alternatives imo. (And Lesko for me). 

Not sure you can say 'without question'.  Even setting money aside (which we can argue if they will or not) we know that the Orioles march to the beat of the slightly different drummer.  The things their analytics are looking at may not be the same criteria that the other 'experts' who are making these lists use.  I know in one interview the guy from the Os said the most important tool was the hit tool, and the others are way behind it.  Well, to my understanding at least, the ability that is the lowest rated on Jones is the hit tool.  MLB has his hit tool as a 55, with his other tools all bring 60+.    By that measure, and again just from MLB, Holliday (60), Johnson (70) and Lee (65) are all more highly regarded and rated from a hit tool perspective.  If, and I know it's a huge if, but IF they weigh the hit tool as so significantly more important than other tools, then that could possibly put one, or more, of the other players ahead of Jones on their board.

Don't get me wrong, I know they aren't using the MLB.com hit tool to make their decision.  My point is simply we do not know what factors the Orioles weigh, and how much weight they give to each factor.  We can make blanket statements about how there is NO WAY Jones isn't 1st on their BPA draft board, and if he isn't the pick then its all about money, but we will never know that, without question.    They are going to claim that WHOEVER they pick was #1 on their board, regardless of if the player signs over slot value, as some have claimed Jones would take (I don't agree, but that's out there) or they get him at a discount.  

All that said, I'm starting to trust Elias more and more.  What has been put together this year so far with duct tape and superglue has been amazing, and much of it was from pieces other teams just discarded.  I hope they use some of the same magic in the draft tomorrow and pick who they really think the BPA is, regardless of what the 'experts', both in the media and on this message board, think.  I also sincerely hope that money does NOT come into play, unless they honestly have 2 players they think are truly equally worthy of that #1 pick, and then and only then am I ok with taking the cheaper option.  But only if they are really tied in being the BPA.  Otherwise take the BPA, regardless of if he costs more.  I was a fan of the underslot in the past as I felt we needed quantity as much as quality as our farm system sucked.  Now is the time to focus on quality over quantity.  

[Sports Guy]

People keep saying they trust Elias more and more.  Why?  Because the ML team is doing better this year than you expected?

What does that have to do with the draft?  
 

He has three drafts with us.  The first one appears to be great.  The second one is giving us a lot of hope but we don’t know when/if ML production will come from it.

Last years draft looks poor after Cowser.

So, why are you trusting him more than ever before?

Dont get me wrong, he has a history of being good at this.  I guess I’m wondering why all of a sudden you feel like you can trust him more.  I get the sense from Os fans that they are ready to be in the “In Elias we trust”, like the Ravens fans used to say about Ozzie Newsome and Ozzie had 20 years of being great at this to earn that.  
 

[RVAOsFan]

Callis and Mayo both take Jones in their final mock draft for whatever that is worth. 

[RVAOsFan]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying they trust Elias more and more.  Why?  Because the ML team is doing better this year than you expected?

What does that have to do with the draft?  
 

He has three drafts with us.  The first one appears to be great.  The second one is giving us a lot of hope but we don’t know when/if ML production will come from it.

Last years draft looks poor after Cowser.

So, why are you trusting him more than ever before?

Dont get me wrong, he has a history of being good at this.  I guess I’m wondering why all of a sudden you feel like you can trust him more.  I get the sense from Os fans that they are ready to be in the “In Elias we trust”, like the Ravens fans used to say about Ozzie Newsome and Ozzie had 20 years of being great at this to earn that.  
 

I think the development of some of his draft picks in particular Henderson would be more of a reason to say this than the current success of the MLB team. It also doesn’t hurt that guys like Cowart and Kjerstad are playing really well right now. 
I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt right now but it’s also no fun to sit back and not have an opinion on who we draft.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

7 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Not sure you can say 'without question'.  

Was just talking about the Fangraphs ratings Frobby posted.

[forphase1]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying they trust Elias more and more.  Why?  Because the ML team is doing better this year than you expected?

What does that have to do with the draft?  
 

He has three drafts with us.  The first one appears to be great.  The second one is giving us a lot of hope but we don’t know when/if ML production will come from it.

Last years draft looks poor after Cowser.

So, why are you trusting him more than ever before?

Dont get me wrong, he has a history of being good at this.  I guess I’m wondering why all of a sudden you feel like you can trust him more.  I get the sense from Os fans that they are ready to be in the “In Elias we trust”, like the Ravens fans used to say about Ozzie Newsome and Ozzie had 20 years of being great at this to earn that.  
 

It's a combination of things for me.   First many of our top draft picks are playing really well,  including some we may have reached on.   This makes me hopeful that whatever data they are using to identify who to draft is doing a decent job.   Second,  I'd think that some of the same data they use to determine who to draft is the same they looks for when determining who to sign or claim.  Quite a few of the good performers on the MLB squad that have lead to this competitive play were guys we either identified from other organizations or our own guys we tweaked and improved their game.   All put together makes me more trusting in the vision and direction Elias is taking the club. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying they trust Elias more and more.  Why?  Because the ML team is doing better this year than you expected?

What does that have to do with the draft?  
 

He has three drafts with us.  The first one appears to be great.  The second one is giving us a lot of hope but we don’t know when/if ML production will come from it.

Last years draft looks poor after Cowser.

So, why are you trusting him more than ever before?

Dont get me wrong, he has a history of being good at this.  I guess I’m wondering why all of a sudden you feel like you can trust him more.  I get the sense from Os fans that they are ready to be in the “In Elias we trust”, like the Ravens fans used to say about Ozzie Newsome and Ozzie had 20 years of being great at this to earn that.  
 

I think it’s bc the mantra on this board is you are being hysterical unless you back Elias 110% & you can’t make a judgement for at least 5-10 years. And most don’t understand that Sig may be in charge (we might find out more about that today). 
 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

It's a combination of things for me.   First many of our top draft picks are playing really well,  including some we may have reached on.   This makes me hopeful that whatever data they are using to identify who to draft is doing a decent job.   Second,  I'd think that some of the same data they use to determine who to draft is the same they looks for when determining who to sign or claim.  Quite a few of the good performers on the MLB squad that have lead to this competitive play were guys we either identified from other organizations or our own guys we tweaked and improved their game.   All put together makes me more trusting in the vision and direction Elias is taking the club. 

Players picked after Elias’ selections in other orgs are playing well (or better) than Elias’ picks too. Not sure what that means. I also wouldn’t say he is a waiver wire wizard either. Some good ones, some okay ones, some bad ones. DD did a great job in this respect. 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Players picked after Elias’ selections in other orgs are playing well (or better) than Elias’ picks too. Not sure what that means. I also wouldn’t say he is a waiver wire wizard either. Some good ones, some okay ones, some bad ones. DD did a great job in this respect. 

Like Asa Lacy and Austin Martin?

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Like Asa Lacy and Austin Martin?

Like Jordan Lawlar:)

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Like Jordan Lawlar:)

Right, but you have had your mind made up on that one.  That's not a sure thing yet either. Cowser off to a great start in AA.  Lawlar with 23 errors in 47 games at SS.  People just scoff that off and point to Derek Jeter 30 years ago.  An error every other game and a .867 fielding percentage is a concern.  You also pointed to Kjerstad's 1 for 11 start at high A and conveniently never mentioned Lawlar's 2 for 21 start in High A.  Don't you follow Lawlar's progress?

[Flash- bd]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying they trust Elias more and more.  Why?  Because the ML team is doing better this year than you expected?

What does that have to do with the draft?  
 

He has three drafts with us.  The first one appears to be great.  The second one is giving us a lot of hope but we don’t know when/if ML production will come from it.

Last years draft looks poor after Cowser.

So, why are you trusting him more than ever before?

Dont get me wrong, he has a history of being good at this.  I guess I’m wondering why all of a sudden you feel like you can trust him more.  I get the sense from Os fans that they are ready to be in the “In Elias we trust”, like the Ravens fans used to say about Ozzie Newsome and Ozzie had 20 years of being great at this to earn that.  
 

So the first one appears to be great, the second one is giving us a lot of hope but we don't know when/if ML production will come from it, which is pretty much a euphemism for a very nice draft that happened two years ago (giving a lot of hope but don't know yet if ML production will come from it is basically all you can possibly ask for a draft that happened two years ago, haha), and the third one looks poor at this very early date, according to you.

 

At the very least that's 2/3 drafts that are great or very good, by your own admission, and your argument is that we shouldn't trust based on that? I'm a bit confused. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right, but you have had your mind made up on that one.  That's not a sure thing yet either. Cowser off to a great start in AA.  Lawlar with 23 errors in 47 games at SS.  People just scoff that off and point to Derek Jeter 30 years ago.  An error every other game and a .867 fielding percentage is a concern.  You also pointed to Kjerstad's 1 for 11 start at high A and conveniently never mentioned Lawlar's 2 for 21 start in High A.  Don't you follow Lawlar's progress?

Omg, you are bonkers lol. I was joking about Kerjstad. Why would I root against him? That’s awful. I state my opinion and if it’s wrong, it’s wrong. You need to smoke some grass my friend:) 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Omg, you are bonkers lol. I was joking about Kerjstad. Why would I root against him? That’s awful. I state my opinion and if it’s wrong, it’s wrong. You need to smoke some grass my friend:) 

Sounds like good advice. But Lawlar really does have 23 errors in 47 games.