2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I am hoping McDaniel is right on the 2/3 chance of going Jones.

Peyton Graham- SS Oklahoma

Owen Murphy- HS P, Notre Dame commit

Henry Bolte- HS CF, Texas commit

 

[RZNJ]

I hope Graham gets to us. He doesn't in some mocks.  I've seen us connected to Murphy before.  Some mocks had Bolte going mid 1st round. He's a high ceiling/bust type of tooled up HS OF.

I would guess both the HS players are overslots there.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s what I asked yesterday.  If he’s so good, why do so many mocks have him outside the top 3 if Os don’t take him.

Could be they just don’t like him as much as Kiley.   Or, it could be a case of groupthink, not wanting to be criticized if the pick doesn’t work out.   Jones busts, nobody will criticize you.  Johnson busts, people will say, why’d you pick a 5’8” 2B?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Could be they just don’t like him as much as Kiley.   Or, it could be a case of groupthink, not wanting to be criticized if the pick doesn’t work out.   Jones busts, nobody will criticize you.  Johnson busts, people will say, why’d you pick a 5’8” 2B?

Yea but second base is so well represented in the HOF!

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I hope Graham gets to us. He doesn't in some mocks.  I've seen us connected to Murphy before.  Some mocks had Bolte going mid 1st round. He's a high ceiling/bust type of tooled up HS OF.

I would guess both the HS players are overslots there.

Let’s extrapolate this out…

I believe Jones will sign for 8.5M but let’s just say it takes 8.8M.

Lets say you get Graham and he costs 2.1M, which is 200k under slot.

The value at 42 is 1.8M and the value at 67 is 1M.

Let’s say the 2 HS kids cost you 4M to sign.

You are now at 14.9M spent.  That leaves them 2M plus the 825ishK they are allowed to go over.

Your next pick, pick 81, has a slot value of 793k.  
 

Rounds 4-10 have a total of roughly 2M.

So, if you went slot bonus the rest of the way and you go over by the 4.9%, you can sign all your picks.

For me, I would try to go overslot one more time and then go super cheap the rest of the way.  Draft college relievers with no leverage.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but second base is so well represented in the HOF!

It is.   But that’s the way groupthink is.  It’s like Moneyball where players are being drafted based on whether they “look like ball players.”   Some of that thinking has been excised but it’s always going to be a factor IMO.  

[ShoelesJoe]

The guys who do the MASN podcasts both predict Termarr Johnson will be our pick. It looks to me like they kind of talked themselves into it, mainly due to the Callis interview where he said Johnson has Wade Boggs’ plate discipline combined with Vladimir Guerrero Sr.’s plate coverage. Plus you get a discount to spend later in the draft. If the Oriole brass comes to anything like that conclusion I don’t see how they pass him up, even considering the upsides of Jones, Holliday, etc. 

 

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s extrapolate this out…

I believe Jones will sign for 8.5M but let’s just say it takes 8.8M.

Lets say you get Graham and he costs 2.1M, which is 200k under slot.

The value at 42 is 1.8M and the value at 67 is 1M.

Let’s say the 2 HS kids cost you 4M to sign.

You are now at 14.9M spent.  That leaves them 2M plus the 825ishK they are allowed to go over.

Your next pick, pick 81, has a slot value of 793k.  
 

Rounds 4-10 have a total of roughly 2M.

So, if you went slot bonus the rest of the way and you go over by the 4.9%, you can sign all your picks.

For me, I would try to go overslot one more time and then go super cheap the rest of the way.  Draft college relievers with no leverage.

I don't disagree with your strategy but you might be light on the two HS players.  Might take as much as 6M combined.  Just a guess.  

[RZNJ]

Ha. The Orioles took a short 2B last year, also considered one of the best pure hitters in the draft. Connor Norby listed at 5'10".  Otherwise, a lot of guys 6'2" and taller who "look like ballplayers".

Norby is another example of a player confined to the position they drafted him at.  

[LTO's]

Anyone have Baseball America? They just released a mock draft as well. Thumbnail picture is Temarr so I'm assuming that is who is mocked to us. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It is.   But that’s the way groupthink is.  It’s like Moneyball where players are being drafted based on whether they “look like ball players.”   Some of that thinking has been excised but it’s always going to be a factor IMO.  

Yea because you don’t draft guys like this with the first pick.

There is a reason the group think exists.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ha. The Orioles took a short 2B last year, also considered one of the best pure hitters in the draft. Connor Norby listed at 5'10".  Otherwise, a lot of guys 6'2" and taller who "look like ballplayers".

Norby is another example of a player confined to the position they drafted him at.  

But he wasn’t the first pick, which makes all the difference in the world in this conversation and he hasn’t exactly lit up either. 
 

BTw, he’s another reason why you don’t take another second base only guy.  The need isn’t there.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But he wasn’t the first pick, which makes all the difference in the world in this conversation and he hasn’t exactly lit up either. 
 

BTw, he’s another reason why you don’t take another second base only guy.  The need isn’t there.

I wasn't making a case for Johnson.   

I can't resist though. You know you don't draft for need but you mention need when it's convenient to your argument. 

[MurphDogg]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

BTw, he’s another reason why you don’t take another second base only guy.  The need isn’t there.

You don't draft for need.

If you did, the Orioles wouldn't be considering Jones given how many outfielders they have drafted recently.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

You don't draft for need.

If you did, the Orioles wouldn't be considering Jones given how many outfielders they have drafted recently.

Disagree on the last part.  There isn't a true CF top prospect.  Maybe Cowser is a plus CF but I haven't heard it.