Roch guesses OD lineup…Urias at SS

[wildcard]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It is proven year in and year out that you can build a great farm system while also winning games.  We see several teams do it every year, all the time.  
 

Probably not without help from international prospects which the O's have none close to the majors in 2022.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, forphase1 said:

*sigh* I don't know why I keep responding, but...

1) Truth that looking at other franchises that can win each year and still have a good farm system is not an apples to apples comparison as they have been established, while we were starting largely from scratch.  It takes time, and other factors like Covid have hindered our progress.  Truth that it doesn't make sense to spend money chasing 20 more wins to still just be another team with a losing record.  See #2 and #3 below, etc, etc.

2) Of course not.  But it's the best way giving our situation.  If we had deep international pipeline built up by years and years of relationships, then we wouldn't be as dependent upon the draft for our talent.  If we had gotten better returns for our trades, then the need to build the farm system wouldn't be an needed.  But we don't have that legacy international system, and by and large our trades didn't net enough talent that has shown to be worthwhile.  Clearly (at least for MOST folks) the higher you draft and the more money you have gives you chances and opportunities that otherwise may not be there.  Yes, we can all point to teams who do well picking in the 15-20 range each year, but generally yes, the higher you pick and the more money you have to spend the easier it is to rebuild the farm system.

3)  What I care about is when we are able to challenge for a playoff spot because the young talent is ready, we have both the payroll flexibility AND the funds to do whatever we need.  I know you think the money just grows on trees, and that if it's not spent now it just lines the owners pockets.  I don't.  It would not shock me in the least for Elias to be able to go to ownership and get approval to spend beyond the normal yearly means IF he watches the payroll now.  The Orioles is a business.  Many business owners I know budget not just for a year, but for years down the road where applicable and needed.  I'm not saying they are necessarily building a war chest, but I wouldn't be surprised if more savings today leads to more willingness to spend on down the road.  I'd MUCH rather us have money to spend to take us from an 80 win team to a 100 win team than to spend it now trying to go from 50 wins to 70 wins.  Combine that with the general long term flexibility, I don't see the point in signing much from the free agent pool this year.  Again, I know you disagree, so clearly I'm wrong.    

The problem with 1 and 2 is that the Orioles have built one of, if not the best, farm systems already plus they have the #1 pick and a big draft pool for the upcoming draft.  That part of it is over.  They have built that pipeline and that inventory Elias wants and it’s only going to get better with this draft and the increased impact being made internationally.

So, that’s not really an excuse to continue to keep losing on purpose when the goal is already accomplished.

Your reasoning there is why I was in favor of the approach in prior years.  That’s why the approach was fine in the past.  But going forward, the approach isn’t needed.  You have built the foundation.  You are starting to reap the rewards of international improvement.  
 

And btw, the Orioles could have had a similar, if not exact same draft, in 2020 and 2021 if they drafted 9th in round 1.  Again, they didn’t take the consensus BPA.  In 2021, they didn’t even really going overslot for several rounds and you have guys like Creed Willems there all the time.  It’s not like they went all Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2021 draft.  Same in 2020.  That draft looks great but you potentially could have had Kjerstad later (or just end up with Veen, who I thought should have been the pick) and still ended up with Mayo and Baumler.

Maybe you don’t get Westburg but Dax Fulton and Jared Kelly went after Westburg and maybe Westburg is still available 8-10 picks later.  
 

The point being that you don’t need to lose on purpose to obtain these types of players.  These guys are obtained all throughout the draft for teams.  Every team is excited by their draft and most of the time, the players after round 1 become nothing and only about 50% of round 1 becomes something.  That’s not really a reason to lose on purpose for several years.  This isn’t the NBA or NFL when one player can turn around a franchise.

And the last part of your post goes back to what I was saying before.  People just think the Os are going to bring up players and all of a sudden be winners.  How long are you going to sit around and wait?  Do you think this team goes from a 55-60 win team to a contender in 1 year?  There needs to be some progression and being in the AL East, a 30-40 game improvement in one offseason isn’t likely.  The young players need to learn how to win.  They need players around them that understand winning.  

[emmett16]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not contradicting myself at all.

There is nothing the organization is gaining long term, outside of a few early picks, that will be a result of losing on purpose.  
 

If you disagree with that, tell me where I’m incorrect.

 

People have brought up a variety of points that are completely valid that you don't agree with so you type as many words are possible and condescend people to try and win an argument.  

It has been stated by management and pointed out by posters that:

1. Priority #1 was a complete overhaul of the organization.  They completely gutted personnel and began hiring dozens of new employees

2. Implementing strategies that start from the ground floor and work it's way up to MLB level.

3. Building out software and baseball tech throughout all of the minor league facilities and ST facilities.

4. Building a Baseball Academy in the Dominican Republic.  Hiring personnel to build, implement, and recruit in-roads in international communities.

5. Building out a state-of-the-art analytics system, hiring people who can implement & translate those analytics in laymen's terms to the players.

 

The orioles were an expansion team in 2018 due to years of neglect and being poorly managed.  I've followed the orioles for 30 years now.  It's a breath of fresh air that someone came in, stated their goals clearly and concisely, and has followed through verbatim.   It was said in plain English that the MLB team would not be the priority for a few years and it would be a long methodical process.  For the first time in as long as I can remember there are positive articles coming out by non-orioles media about the progress being made, players in our system, and the bright future on the horizon.   Everything we hear from players, team reps, and coaches is that everyone is on the same page, with same goals, and with a clear focus on what each individual needs to do to make the collective better.  It is a long slow process.  MLB team is not winning yet, but for the first time in my lifetime the Orioles aren't a complete embarassment of an organization and have a very bright future.  Hopefully you have enough patience to make it through these last couple rebuilding years and can enjoy the fruits of the labor.  But, of course, any success they have after the rebuild will absolutely have nothing to do with the rebuild

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, emmett16 said:

 

People have brought up a variety of points that are completely valid that you don't agree with so you type as many words are possible and condescend people to try and win an argument.  

It has been stated by management and pointed out by posters that:

1. Priority #1 was a complete overhaul of the organization.  They completely gutted personnel and began hiring dozens of new employees

2. Implementing strategies that start from the ground floor and work it's way up to MLB level.

3. Building out software and baseball tech throughout all of the minor league facilities and ST facilities.

4. Building a Baseball Academy in the Dominican Republic.  Hiring personnel to build, implement, and recruit in-roads in international communities.

5. Building out a state-of-the-art analytics system, hiring people who can implement & translate those analytics in laymen's terms to the players.

 

The orioles were an expansion team in 2018 due to years of neglect and being poorly managed.  I've followed the orioles for 30 years now.  It's a breath of fresh air that someone came in, stated their goals clearly and concisely, and has followed through verbatim.   It was said in plain English that the MLB team would not be the priority for a few years and it would be a long methodical process.  For the first time in as long as I can remember there are positive articles coming out by non-orioles media about the progress being made, players in our system, and the bright future on the horizon.   Everything we hear from players, team reps, and coaches is that everyone is on the same page, with same goals, and with a clear focus on what each individual needs to do to make the collective better.  It is a long slow process.  MLB team is not winning yet, but for the first time in my lifetime the Orioles aren't a complete embarassment of an organization and have a very bright future.  Hopefully you have enough patience to make it through these last couple rebuilding years and can enjoy the fruits of the labor.  But, of course, any success they have after the rebuild will absolutely have nothing to do with the rebuild

 

This is all great but it literally has nothing to do with what is being discussed.

Let me ask you a very simple question…why do the Orioles need to lose on purpose, going on 4 straight years, to accomplish anything in numbers 1-5 of your post?

Do we need to lose 110 games for software buildouts?  Or to build a Dominican facility?  Is losing on purpose a pre-requisite to doing these things?  Where in the CBA does it state that?

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem with 1 and 2 is that the Orioles have built one of, if not the best, farm systems already plus they have the #1 pick and a big draft pool for the upcoming draft.  That part of it is over.  They have built that pipeline and that inventory Elias wants and it’s only going to get better with this draft and the increased impact being made internationally.

This isn’t the NBA or NFL when one player can turn around a franchise.

Is it?  I'm not sure I agree.  Yes, our farm system is highly ranked, but much of that is having a few really top prospects like GRod and AR.  Overall I don't believe the depth is there yet, and there are still some serious holes in some positions that it's very questionable that the current crop of prospects will really help to fill, namely starting pitching and infield defensive positions.  Once AR and GRod graduate this year as expected, I think our farm system is likely to dip down in the rankings.  Not that rankings are the end all be all, but they do at least give us a measuring stick for where folks with knowledge think our system stands.  The depth just isn't there yet to forge a consistently good MLB team at this point.  So yes, I still see a need to continue building that pipeline at this point.

That said, I do not agree with purposely losing games, and I don't believe they are, but nor do I think we should spend money at this stage to win more.  We just aren't in the position for that to make much sense.  Improvement in the quality of play and record this year needs to come from some of the AAAA pitchers and high minors prospects taking the next step and producing at the MLB level.  I'd love to see us win 70ish games, around a .450 winning clip, but that needs to come internally at this stage, and not much from the free agent pool.

And you are right, this isn't the NBA or NFL where one player can turn around a franchise.  That's precisely why you need MANY of them and MULTIPLES of them because even adding a Mike Trout to this team will only increase the record by a handful or two of wins at best.  But that only helps my point that we need to continue strengthening the minors at this point as we can't just rely upon one or two players, like AR or GRod, to turn things around.  

As to the rest of your post, scroll up or see other posts and see the multiple posts refuting what you've said.  No need to retype it all here.  Suffice it to say I don't agree we'd have had the same draft results by drafting lower, and leave it at that.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This is all great but it literally has nothing to do with what is being discussed.

Let me ask you a very simple question…why do the Orioles need to lose on purpose, going on 4 straight years, to accomplish anything in numbers 1-5 of your post?

Do we need to lose 110 games for software buildouts?  Or to build a Dominican facility?  Is losing on purpose a pre-requisite to doing these things?  Where in the CBA does it state that?

You continue to say lose on purpose.  They are not going out and trying to lose.  They are prioritizing building parts of the organization that had not been previously built.  

When I built my company from the ground up I prioritized very different things than I do now.  I had to build out an office, had to build out computer systems, had to build out a website, had to hire dozens of people.  I didn't go out and hire a professional PR firm in year one, didn't go out and hire 2-3 high-end architects to supplement my team, didn't have an HR department, didn't buy a fleet of vehicles, didn't bring out a social media team, etc.   There is no way I could be doing the things I am doing now in years 1-5.  Impossible.   It's about resources, investments in future, man hours, buy-in, and quantifying metrics to make better decisions.   Sure, I could have done those things, but I'd be bankrupt and would not have had sustained success.  Same exact thing on a very smaller scale.  It blows my mind that you can't wrap your head around these concepts.  

[George Zuverink]

22 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Frobby, you just aren’t realistic.  That 30M isn’t going into some “spend it later bank account”. There is no possible way that you actually believe that.

 

You can’t possibly understand how people find your posts “rude” and “condescending “? It is perfectly OK for you to tell one of the most thoughtful posters on the board what he could and could not possibly believe? After  I read that, the only reason to keep reading your posts was to see how often you  inject your arguments with the phrase “losing on purpose.” I doubt that the coaches and cheap negative WAR players have ever received or would ever accept such an edict. It is just your inflammatory way of referring to decisions the owners make about how and when to spend their money that you hate because it denies or delays the gratification you think you deserve.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

Is it?  I'm not sure I agree.  Yes, our farm system is highly ranked, but much of that is having a few really top prospects like GRod and AR.  Overall I don't believe the depth is there yet, and there are still some serious holes in some positions that it's very questionable that the current crop of prospects will really help to fill, namely starting pitching and infield defensive positions.  Once AR and GRod graduate this year as expected, I think our farm system is likely to dip down in the rankings.  Not that rankings are the end all be all, but they do at least give us a measuring stick for where folks with knowledge think our system stands.  The depth just isn't there yet to forge a consistently good MLB team at this point.  So yes, I still see a need to continue building that pipeline at this point.

That said, I do not agree with purposely losing games, and I don't believe they are, but nor do I think we should spend money at this stage to win more.  We just aren't in the position for that to make much sense.  Improvement in the quality of play and record this year needs to come from some of the AAAA pitchers and high minors prospects taking the next step and producing at the MLB level.  I'd love to see us win 70ish games, around a .450 winning clip, but that needs to come internally at this stage, and not much from the free agent pool.

And you are right, this isn't the NBA or NFL where one player can turn around a franchise.  That's precisely why you need MANY of them and MULTIPLES of them because even adding a Mike Trout to this team will only increase the record by a handful or two of wins at best.  But that only helps my point that we need to continue strengthening the minors at this point as we can't just rely upon one or two players, like AR or GRod, to turn things around.  

As to the rest of your post, scroll up or see other posts and see the multiple posts refuting what you've said.  No need to retype it all here.  Suffice it to say I don't agree we'd have had the same draft results by drafting lower, and leave it at that.  

Those guys will get promoted but the #1 pick and subsequent picks, increased performance by others, international signings, etc…will keep the system ranked very highly..certainly high enough to not tank again for draft picks.

Word it any way you but they are definitely not trying to win games.  They have stated this.  This isn’t opinion.  This is a public statement and fact repeatedly said by Elias.

We can still obtain many players to help this team and win games.  This isn’t an either/or situation.

You can’t refute facts.  Nothing being down requires us to lose 110 games.  It’s a lie to say otherwise.  It’s literally a proven fact that you don’t have to lose to accomplish these things.  If you want to argue otherwise, you are just clueless and pay attention to nothing else in the sport but the Orioles because literally several teams are walking and chewing gum at the same time.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

You continue to say lose on purpose.  They are not going out and trying to lose.  They are prioritizing building parts of the organization that had not been previously built.  

When I built my company from the ground up I prioritized very different things than I do now.  I had to build out an office, had to build out computer systems, had to build out a website, had to hire dozens of people.  I didn't go out and hire a professional PR firm in year one, didn't go out and hire 2-3 high-end architects to supplement my team, didn't have an HR department, didn't buy a fleet of vehicles, didn't bring out a social media team, etc.   There is no way I could be doing the things I am doing now in years 1-5.  Impossible.   It's about resources, investments in future, man hours, buy-in, and quantifying metrics to make better decisions.   Sure, I could have done those things, but I'd be bankrupt and would not have had sustained success.  Same exact thing on a very smaller scale.  It blows my mind that you can't wrap your head around these concepts.  

I do believe that the players, coaches and manager are trying to win every game.

I also believe that the GM intentionally provided a non-competitive roster in an effort to both spend as little as possible and improve draft position.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

You continue to say lose on purpose.  They are not going out and trying to lose.  They are prioritizing building parts of the organization that had not been previously built.  

When I built my company from the ground up I prioritized very different things than I do now.  I had to build out an office, had to build out computer systems, had to build out a website, had to hire dozens of people.  I didn't go out and hire a professional PR firm in year one, didn't go out and hire 2-3 high-end architects to supplement my team, didn't have an HR department, didn't buy a fleet of vehicles, didn't bring out a social media team, etc.   There is no way I could be doing the things I am doing now in years 1-5.  Impossible.   It's about resources, investments in future, man hours, buy-in, and quantifying metrics to make better decisions.   Sure, I could have done those things, but I'd be bankrupt and would not have had sustained success.  Same exact thing on a very smaller scale.  It blows my mind that you can't wrap your head around these concepts.  

When you started your business, you didn’t walk into an atm machine like owning a sports franchise is.  You didn’t walk into a company already worth 1-2 billion dollars.

To act as if they can’t win 75 games and do the things needed to win long term is absurd.  To think they can’t win while getting the right software is wrong.  To think you can’t win games and field a better product because you are building a facility in DR is wrong.  You are just making factually wrong statements.  This isn’t opinion.  This is always happening in the sport and teams are able to do it while winning.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do believe that the players, coaches and manager are trying to win every game.

I also believe that the GM intentionally provided a non-competitive roster in an effort to both spend as little as possible and improve draft position.

Correct

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

You can’t possibly understand how people find your posts “rude” and “condescending “? It is perfectly OK for you to tell one of the most thoughtful posters on the board what he could and could not possibly believe? After  I read that, the only reason to keep reading your posts was to see how often you  inject your arguments with the phrase “losing on purpose.” I doubt that the coaches and cheap negative WAR players have ever received or would ever accept such an edict. It is just your inflammatory way of referring to decisions the owners make about how and when to spend their money that you hate because it denies or delays the gratification you think you deserve.

No one has said the coaches or players are trying to lose.

We are obviously talking about upper management and ownership..you know, the ones actually making the decisions.

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When you started your business, you didn’t walk into an atm machine like owning a sports franchise is.  You didn’t walk into a company already worth 1-2 billion dollars.

To act as if they can’t win 75 games and do the things needed to win long term is absurd.  To think they can’t win while getting the right software is wrong.  To think you can’t win games and field a better product because you are building a facility in DR is wrong.  You are just making factually wrong statements.  This isn’t opinion.  This is always happening in the sport and teams are able to do it while winning.  

Elias walked into a company that had a -6.5mm net profit the year prior to his hire and 100+mm lawsuit that will need to be paid up sometime in the near future.  Then the pandemic hit....  Wouldn't call that an ATM.  

 

I have ZERO desire to watch a 75 win team.  Would rather keep up with my fantasy team and continue to watch slow sustained improvement from the lower levels trickle up to the MLB team.  

 

I also believe they will spend when the time comes.  That will be my last straw if they don't.  I've hung on for a lifetime so far, but I'm not an eternal optimist.  If they do not take advantage of the position they put themselves in over the next few years, my time as an Orioles fan will be up.  But as stated before, the new regime has been a breath of fresh air.  If the wool is being pulled over my eyes, I'll gladly admit I was fooled and move on.  

 

That's all for now.  Time to go surfing  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, emmett16 said:

Elias walked into a company that had a -6.5mm net profit the year prior to his hire and 100+mm lawsuit that will need to be paid up sometime in the near future.  Then the pandemic hit....  Wouldn't call that an ATM.  

 

I have ZERO desire to watch a 75 win team.  Would rather keep up with my fantasy team and continue to watch slow sustained improvement from the lower levels trickle up to the MLB team.  

 

I also believe they will spend when the time comes.  That will be my last straw if they don't.  I've hung on for a lifetime so far, but I'm not an eternal optimist.  If they do not take advantage of the position they put themselves in over the next few years, my time as an Orioles fan will be up.  But as stated before, the new regime has been a breath of fresh air.  If the wool is being pulled over my eyes, I'll gladly admit I was fooled and move on.  

 

That's all for now.  Time to go surfing  

All the money for that has been put aside already.

[forphase1]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Word it any way you but they are definitely not trying to win games.  They have stated this.  This isn’t opinion.  This is a public statement and fact repeatedly said by Elias.

Which is vastly different than trying to lose.  Yes, they aren't spending money on high dollar free agents (or even middle dollar for that matter) to try to squeeze out a handful more wins, nor are they going to rush or quickly promote prospects in order to get the talent in the lineup quicker, rather service time and other considerations are more important.  Which I believe is smart, in both cases.