Norby, Vavra and Prieto

[Frobby]

I’m curious to know how posters rank these three, and who has the highest ceiling and highest floor?

Tony has Norby at 10 and Vavra at 20.   I don’t think he has weighed in on where Prieto would have fallen if he’d been in the organization when Tony did his rankings.   

Fangraphs sees them as very close.   They have Vavra at 11 and graded 45, with Norby and Prieto at 13-14 with a 40+ grade.   

I don’t know BA’s full rankings, but they are high on Vavra, ranking him 10th.

Prospects1500 has Norby at 11, Vavra 12.   I think their list precedes the Prieto acquisition, so he’s not ranked.  

Eutaw Street has Norby 12, Vavra 14 on a 20-deep list.  

On the Verge has it Vavra 12, Norby 13, Prieto 20.



 

[ChosenOne21]

This is really hard to answer because we haven't really seen Norby play and who knows what Prieto is going to look like as he adjusts to MLB. I'm not especially impressed with Vavra, and Prieto is going to have to add power to have a MLB future.

I think Norby is the best combination of ceiling and probability, but it's possible Prieto has a higher ceiling

[wildcard]

I rank Vavra and Norby in the 11-13 range.   The big difference is Vavra could be in the majors in the the 2nd half of 2022 and Norby is more like 2024. 

I rank Prieto around 20 just because of the uncertainty.

[Frobby]

I updated the OP with some other third party evaluations.  Seems like Tony is the low man on Vavra, and everyone has Norby in the 10-13 range.  Not everyone has rated Prieto, but those that have put him a tick below the other two.

[Sports Guy]

Norby has the highest upside.

Vavra seems like a guy destined to be a valuable role player if he ends up in the majors.

Prieto?  Who the hell knows.

[Tony-OH]

These three are interesting for sure. I explained my reasoning for putting Norby and Vavra where I put them in their write ups, but mainly I have concerns about Vavra's injuries (which go back to his college days) and think he might end up more of a utility guy, while Norby still has the upside of an above average hitting second baseman with pop. 

As for Prieto, it's hard to judge him because really all I have is his highlight video's against some really sub par pitching in the Cuban League and a scouting report from a scout who saw him in Cuba and in international tourneys. 

I haven't formally made up a top 30 with the new international players but he would definitely be on the list. He does have an upside of being an above average hitting second baseman, but I really want to see what he looks like against good upper level pitching. 

We've seen Urrutia and Alvarez flame out in the Orioles minor league system. As 21-year olds in the Cuban Leagues, here's what the all slashed:
Prieto: .403/.464/.579/1.042  
Alvarez: .363/.404/.613/1.018
Urrutia:  .365/.456/.513/.969

Now Urrutia had a four year lay off and was 26-years old when he finally got a chance in the Orioles minors and Alvarez was 24 compared to Prieto who will be 22, so that goes in Prieto's favor. 

After watching some of the highlight's films, it's hard to know how those stats will translate since it appears there are guys that could be playing in a minor league system, as well as beer league softball players. I doubt the level is as good as what Norby saw in college so let's add in his college numbers last year:

Norby: 415/.484/.659/1.143

Norby's number are superior to all and we also have his .283/.413/.434/.847 line in Delmarva to work from.    

Prieto is supposed to be a good defender at second base, but his below average arm will limit him there. He doesn't bring a stolen base threat to his game. Norby makes more errors than I would like to see from a second baseman, but he has the tools to be good there. Vavra looked good enough for me in my looks last year, but he has the athleticism and speed to go out to centerfield.

So Prieto's value will be on his ability to hit for average and get on base with maybe occasional pop. 

Saying all that, If I had to rank them in order, it's Norby then Vavra and Prieto who are neck and neck for me right now mainly because Norby's bat has the most upside for me due to his pop. If pushed, I'd have Vavra slightly ahead of Prieto.

 

[btdart20]

The "I'm no expert" caveat definitely applies...

All have a plus BA/OBP floor profile.  The differences seem to be ETA, fielding, and ceiling.  Here's the order I would go:

1a. Prieto - 2022/23 ETA.  The hit tool comparison to Nick Madrigal and breaking Kendrys Morales hit record are good conversation starters.  Solid defensively.  18:50 mark of the podcast linked below gives some background on the O's landing him for the price (i.e. other teams already had committed their international budget when Prieto declared).

CubaDugout Locked on Orioles & César Prieto - Cuba Dugout

1b. Norby - 2024ish ETA.  Probably the most projectable floor.  His ceiling is a solid BA/OBP guy who may develop into a 15+ HR guy.  Maybe the weakest fielding.  

3. Vavra - 2022/23 ETA.  But I'd say his floor is more questionable and has the lowest ceiling.  But maybe the strongest fielding.  

 

[Sports Guy]

If Norby isn’t ready until 2024, he won’t be good (or at least won’t be a ML starter) or has had injury issues.

[LookinUp]

They all seem to have a shot at first glance. Tony does as good a job as anyone at discussing their relative strengths and questions. I do like that Vavra brings some speed. That gives him some potential versatility that the others might not have.

[Big Mac]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If Norby isn’t ready until 2024, he won’t be good (or at least won’t be a ML starter) or has had injury issues.

Most likely yes.  I'd figure the goal trajectory is for him to start this year at Aberdeen, play the second half in Bowie and perform well enough to start 2023 in Norfolk.  If that happens, he should be ready by mid-2023.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Big Mac said:

Most likely yes.  I'd figure the goal trajectory is for him to start this year at Aberdeen, play the second half in Bowie and perform well enough to start 2023 in Norfolk.  If that happens, he should be ready by mid-2023.

Yep.  He could be at Bowie by June if he plays well.  It’s even possible he sees Norfolk this year with them playing later than everyone else.  
 

Advanced college hitter who is a second baseman and not likely anything else.  Should know fairly quickly what you have in him.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If Norby isn’t ready until 2024, he won’t be good (or at least won’t be a ML starter) or has had injury issues.

 

9 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Most likely yes.  I'd figure the goal trajectory is for him to start this year at Aberdeen, play the second half in Bowie and perform well enough to start 2023 in Norfolk.  If that happens, he should be ready by mid-2023.

That's fair.  Just going off what I've seen.  Who has the first crack at the MLB of these?  Vavra?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If Norby isn’t ready until 2024, he won’t be good (or at least won’t be a ML starter) or has had injury issues.

I don’t know why you say that.   It’s not unusual at all for college players to take more than 3 seasons (including their short initial season) to make it to the majors.   Looking at the 2016 draft for example, 16 college guys drafted in the first round have made it to the majors, but only two of them made it there by 2018.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know why you say that.   It’s not unusual at all for college players to take more than 3 seasons (including their short initial season) to make it to the majors.   Looking at the 2016 draft for example, 16 college guys drafted in the first round have made it to the majors, but only two of them made it there by 2018.

And how many of them are any good and how many have had injury issues?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And how many of them are any good and how many have had injury issues?

You’re fighting a losing battle here.   The top four players in that group by rWAR) all debuted in 2019 or later.   I don’t have time to look at every one of these 16 guys and see if they ever had injuries.