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Kiley McDaniel top 100

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nice to have six on the list, but he’s got Cowser, Hall and Henderson further down the top 100 than several of the others.   

In fairness, other teams have their own guys that they're dreaming on just like we do. All could end up much higher before being promoted, but every team has guys like that to some degree or another. Hopefully we're right about ours.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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1. Baltimore Orioles ($344 million)

(55 players ranked, 16 better than 40 FV)
Last year: 8th, $256 million
Top-100 prospects: 6

I mention in the Pirates blurb below that I'm conflicted about the concept of the modern teardown rebuild. As a type-A, finance-majoring baseball fan, I know it's the most effective and efficient way to turn a not-very-good team into a potential force. As a fan, I also know it's infuriating to watch it happen in slow motion. As an analyst, I try to distance myself from this conflict because I'm here to comment on how well teams execute this strategy and only occasionally point out that the rules that make it viable are problematic. The front office is playing the hand it is dealt and the Orioles have played it well, as long as you aren't judging the current big league team as part of this. Ryan Mountcastle is the only meaningful graduate from last year's list and at this time last year I said they should land in the top five of this year's list given how everything was lining up.

The team had a solid 2021 draft headlined once again by a bunch of position players who were solid values. My pick to click in the system (Grayson Rodriguez) took off and is now the best pitching prospect in the minors. The upside-ish prep bats from recent drafts saw big gains, with Coby Mayo and Gunnar Henderson taking a step forward. Mayo and Jordan Westburg are picking up the slack due to top 2020 pick Heston Kjerstad being kept out of action. Two potential starters behind Rodriguez and D.L. Hall have emerged in Kyle Bradish and Drew Rom. Some second-tier position players have a chance to turn into everyday players: Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Joseph Ortiz, Hudson Haskin. The hitter and pitcher development plans appear to be working, and GM Mike Elias appears to have taken what worked from the Astros while leaving behind the stuff nobody wanted.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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It’s interesting to see that McDaniel is using the same methodology as Fangraphs to rank the farm systems, borrowing Fangraphs’ dollar values for prospects with various grades.   Fangraphs has only graded 13 teams to date (I don’t know why they’re so slow about it), but here’s how the top 5 teams they’ve graded compare with McDaniels:

1. BAL $322 mm ($344 mm, 1)

2. PIT $294 mm ($313 mm, 3)

3. ARI $229.5 mm ($276.5 mm, 5)

4. DET $222 mm ($220.5 mm, 13)

5. CHC $189.5 mm ($182.5 mm, 19)

The two teams McDaniel ranks 2 and 4 are Tampa ($313.5) and Miami ($288.5). So far as our division goes, after us and Tampa it’s NYY $269.5 mm (7), BOS $209.5 (16), TOR $163.5 (21).

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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Bold prediction on Hall. Yeah, the guy got injured but the reliever talk is premature. He dominated AA when healthy and the short stints were organizational philosophy. I’m not going to comb through the list but I’m sure there a pitchers in front of Hall that were recent draftees that nobody knows about, or guys that don’t have Hall’s track record. Hall is just about stuff, he’s gotten results. It’s not his fault that he was a HS pitcher, then a Pandemic shortened season, then an injury. 
 

It’s nice that Mayo is getting some love. Cowser is about right. Henderson probably is too, but even at 3B he should be listed as high as a Nolan Gorman type come mid season if he produces. 

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