Austin Hays 2022

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I guess I’m missing why Hays has so much support.  I mean, I like him but he is oft injured, poor plate discipline, middling power and declining defense.

If he didn’t come up with the Os, I don’t think anyone here would be clamoring that we trade for him.

This board, and Os fans on social media in general, really  overrate the talent on this team.

This has been a fun ride this year and the team is in a great place.

But the bottom line is that we aren’t close to the best teams in the league.  This team needs serious upgrades.

Pushing guys like Urias, Mateo and Hays to bench roles is what we should be striving for.  Instead, we have people who want to keep giving them chances even though we have a good idea who and what they are.

Luckily, it’s obvious Elias doesn’t feel this way.

I liked him when he was a plus defender.  I don't like him as a below average defensive corner OFer.  If he hit like he is now but with +5 or +6 OAA on defense it's a lot easier to justify running him out on a playoff team.

 

Urias and Mateo really depend on how much you're buying their defense.  They aren't my first choices for upgrades, though, because both are excellent defenders, and it's bolstering their WAR.  Urias is like +6 OAA and Mateo +8.  If you're buying those defensive numbers and the current state of their bats they can be part of a winning team.

 

Edit: another complication with the infield is where are you playing Henderson.  He looks like he can play anywhere.  I'd be inclined to move him at least to 3rd, but then is Urias going to be the same defender at 2nd?  Kind of a tough spot.  If we could trade Urias for some help elsewhere and just play Vavra or find a FA to play 2B until Mayo/Norby are ready that might be preferable.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Hallas

[maybenxtyr]

I said this somewhere else, but 10 of the top 25 OPS in the AL is in the AL East. None of which are in Baltimore. 

 

This has been an improbable season, but there has to be upgrades somewhere.

[Hallas]

Sign Judge, trade for Ohtani, boom we're a contender 

[bobmc]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Sign Judge, trade for Ohtani, boom we're a contender 

Both fail like Davis, Chris and Davis, Glenn and BOOM pretender 

[Hallas]

10 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Both fail like Davis, Chris and Davis, Glenn and BOOM pretender 

at least we tried

[SilverRocket]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/hays-proud-that-pain-didn-t-lead-to-prolonged-absences

Quote

 “I think part of some of the rough stretches I had this year was dealing with certain injuries. Like, I had the wrist thing and the oblique thing, but I still want to go out there and play. I can contribute. Just still learning how to go through those things. When you’re younger, you’re in the minor leagues and you’re a prospect and you’re dealing with stuff like that, I think it’s pushed to go on the IL, but at this point in my career it’s really important to just make sure that I’m out there for my team every night if I’m capable.

I knew there had to be a wrist issue. Early in the year he was really turning on those inside fastballs and even chasing a lot of them off the plate. At some point that just stopped and he wouldn't even go after them.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 9/21/2022 at 5:41 PM, Hallas said:

Sign Judge, trade for Ohtani, boom we're a contender 

Having 2 of the best players in baseball has never failed to bring playoff success.

[wildcard]

14 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/hays-proud-that-pain-didn-t-lead-to-prolonged-absences

I knew there had to be a wrist issue. Early in the year he was really turning on those inside fastballs and even chasing a lot of them off the plate. At some point that just stopped and he wouldn't even go after them.

I understand why Hyde kept playing him this season because they did not have a good replacement for him.   But its Elias job this off season to determine who can fill in for Hays when he is hurt.  Hays playing hurt is not a good contending team strategy.  

Whether its Vavra or Westburg or someone that has to be acquired the O's need a good backup for Hays in LF for next season.

Edited September 24, 2022 by wildcard

[Frobby]

Makes sense that Hays was struggling with injuries a little, as many here suspected but was never directly confirmed by Hays until now.  

I know some people feel Hays is injury-prone, or has more trouble playing through injuries than the average player.  I don’t know about that.  Things happen, and they can be a bit random.  It’s certainly true that Hays hasn’t had a season since 2017 where injuries didn’t either take him off the field or hamper him to some extent or another.  Whether that’s due to the nature of Hays’ physical constitution or his style of play, or just a random sequence of events that could have happened to anyone, I don’t know.  I’ve always been a bit skeptical that players are “injury prone” unless they have a chronic condition that recurs.  Hays’ injuries have mostly been unrelated to each other.  Perhaps his aggressive style of play contributes, perhaps not.  

Anyway, I hope Hays can stay closer to 100% healthy next year.  He’s fun to watch when he’s on his game.  

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Makes sense that Hays was struggling with injuries a little, as many here suspected but was never directly confirmed by Hays until now.  

I know some people feel Hays is injury-prone, or has more trouble playing through injuries than the average player.  I don’t know about that.  Things happen, and they can be a bit random.  It’s certainly true that Hays hasn’t had a season since 2017 where injuries didn’t either take him off the field or hamper him to some extent or another.  Whether that’s due to the nature of Hays’ physical constitution or his style of play, or just a random sequence of events that could have happened to anyone, I don’t know.  I’ve always been a bit skeptical that players are “injury prone” unless they have a chronic condition that recurs.  Hays’ injuries have mostly been unrelated to each other.  Perhaps his aggressive style of play contributes, perhaps not.  

Anyway, I hope Hays can stay closer to 100% healthy next year.  He’s fun to watch when he’s on his game.  

 

You can call it whatever you want but it’s incredibly foolish to go into 2023 counting on him to be an everyday player.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can call it whatever you want but it’s incredibly foolish to go into 2023 counting on him to be an everyday player.

What do you consider an “everyday player?”   Hays has started 129 of 149.  What would you like to see?  How would you deploy him?

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can call it whatever you want but it’s incredibly foolish to go into 2023 counting on him to be an everyday player.

Not sure why that is so foolish.  Hays has limited value in trade.   He's shown he's capable of being a .750-.800 OPS player.   For his career he's .744.   If he doesn't improve, you've got Cowser at AAA, Vavra and Stowers probably on the team in some capacity.   His defense was at least average before this year.   It's possible that injuries have slowed him down some.    Is it foolish to expect a fully healthy Hays for an entire year and put up an .800 OPS?    Not realistic but not foolish.     Definitely not foolish to pencil him in as the starting LF going into next year.

[Sports Guy]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What do you consider an “everyday player?”   Hays has started 129 of 149.  What would you like to see?  How would you deploy him?

350-400 at bats.

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Not sure why that is so foolish.  Hays has limited value in trade.   He's shown he's capable of being a .750-.800 OPS player.   For his career he's .744.   If he doesn't improve, you've got Cowser at AAA, Vavra and Stowers probably on the team in some capacity.   His defense was at least average before this year.   It's possible that injuries have slowed him down some.    Is it foolish to expect a fully healthy Hays for an entire year and put up an .800 OPS?    Not realistic but not foolish.     Definitely not foolish to pencil him in as the starting LF going into next year.

Yes it’s foolish to rely on him.  He simply can’t stay healthy, his defense is declining, he has no plate discipline and his OBp is poor.

And he showed that one time, not over the course of his career or multiple seasons and it wasn’t 800..it was 769. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes it’s foolish to rely on him.  He simply can’t stay healthy, his defense is declining, he has no plate discipline and his OBp is poor.

And he showed that one time, not over the course of his career or multiple seasons and it wasn’t 800..it was 769. 

I think you need to have contingency plans.  I don’t expect Hays to play 150 games and have an .800 OPS.  I hope he can do that, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did.  But you might end up giving a chunk of his playing time to Stowers, Cowser or some other player we acquire.  

It’s like Mike Tyson once said: “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth.”