Jorge Mateo

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You keep playing everyday at SS for now but he isn't a guy who should be preventing you from finding someone better.

A lot of you are very excited about him but we are still talking about a guy with a 660 OPS and a 93 wRC+.  His OAA is 1 and UZR and UZR/150 has him slightly below average.  He obviously isn't hurting you with the glove and he has a rocket for an arm but he isn't going to be contending for a GG anytime soon either.

Would really like to see him playing 3-5 times a week and moving around the diamond.  I think if you had a better everyday SS and you had him in that role, that elevates the team much more.

Classic strawman argument. No one is saying we should go with Mateo permanently and stop trying to upgrade. Of course we would be better with Correa at SS and Mateo moving around.

So far he has disproven the naysayers and sustained his average offense from his 100 AB's with the O's last year, while improving his defense. He has always had plus-plus speed and athleticism. It is exciting that we have Mateo on pace for a 2-3 WAR type of season at zero cost and under team control. If he sustains it - a big if - that adds up to an MLB starter at one of the most difficult positions to fill. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Classic strawman argument. No one is saying we should go with Mateo permanently and stop trying to upgrade. Of course we would be better with Correa at SS and Mateo moving around.

So far he has disproven the naysayers and sustained his average offense from his 100 AB's with the O's last year, while improving his defense. He has always had plus-plus speed and athleticism. It is exciting that we have Mateo on pace for a 2-3 WAR type of season at zero cost and under team control. If he sustains it - a big if - that adds up to an MLB starter at one of the most difficult positions to fill. 

Umm..yea there are people saying that.

And his offense isn't average.  Its below average.

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If Mateo stays as SS then there needs to be major upgrades at other more secure positions.  Mateo is solid and contributing but he’s not a difference maker.  We can’t just be league average at most positions to be a contender.  If we want to be a legit contender then we need to raise the bar.

Mateo's defense is not league average.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, no Im not.  I am fine with him starting at SS for now.  And sure, if he ends up a 3+ WAR player and the defense is good, you can keep him there.

But I don't believe that's who he is and while I know you like to EXTREMELY overrate SSS, I am not going to ignore what he has done in his pro career because of a few ok games.

And btw, I find it hilarious that people are just not mentioning Westburg.  He is 100% in the mix and both him and Gunnar should be in play at SS and other IF positions.

Westburg does not have Mateo or Gunnar's range at SS.  Nor Mateo speed.  Westburg is probably a 2B/3B.  

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mateo's defense is not league average.

Statcast Outs Above Average Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Maybe/maybe not.  At least by OAA, he's pretty average for SS this year.  And this has been a good 31 game stretch for him.  (Much better than Odor's -4 at least.)

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Statcast Outs Above Average Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Maybe/maybe not.  At least by OAA, he's pretty average for SS this year.  And this has been a good 31 game stretch for him.  (Much better than Odor's -4 at least.)

So by that chart Mateo is tied for 11th win the 30 team league.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 No he's not. He  is looking like a guy that with our current situation deserves the chance to show what he can do.  That is far different than he looks like our long term answer at one of the biggest positions on the diamond.

And Hardy was a well above average defensive SS, so you kind of need to include that.

Your formulation is fine with me.  Give him the chance to show what he can do.  At the end of the season, we’ll be in a better position to assess whether he’s a long term piece.   He’s outperformed expectations so far, but will he do that over 162 games?   Is he this year’s Cedric Mullins, or this year’s David Newhan?   Time will tell.

After 1/5 of the season, he’s at 1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR.   Annualizung that, 5.5 rWAR, 3.5 fWAR.  The difference between the two is mostly how they evaluate defense.  But even 3.5 WAR is an above average player.   Can he do that over 162 games?   I’d say the odds are against it, but he deserves the chance to prove what he can do with the steady playing time he’s getting.   

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Your formulation is fine with me.  Give him the chance to show what he can do.  At the end of the season, we’ll be in a better position to assess whether he’s a long term piece.   He’s outperformed expectations so far, but will he do that over 162 games?   Is he this year’s Cedric Mullins, or this year’s David Newhan?   Time will tell.

After 1/5 of the season, he’s at 1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR.   Annualizung that, 5.5 rWAR, 3.5 fWAR.  The difference between the two is mostly how they evaluate defense.  But even 3.5 WAR is an above average player.   Can he do that over 162 games?   I’d say the odds are against it, but he deserves the chance to prove what he can do with the steady playing time he’s getting.   

Players that play with their hair on fire are more prone to injuries.  Its true with Hays. Don't know about Mateo yet.  

By the way Hays' hand is probably pretty sore this morning. Head first dives to first can do that.

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Your formulation is fine with me.  Give him the chance to show what he can do.  At the end of the season, we’ll be in a better position to assess whether he’s a long term piece.   He’s outperformed expectations so far, but will he do that over 162 games?   Is he this year’s Cedric Mullins, or this year’s David Newhan?   Time will tell.

After 1/5 of the season, he’s at 1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR.   Annualizung that, 5.5 rWAR, 3.5 fWAR.  The difference between the two is mostly how they evaluate defense.  But even 3.5 WAR is an above average player.   Can he do that over 162 games?   I’d say the odds are against it, but he deserves the chance to prove what he can do with the steady playing time he’s getting.   

How much are stolen bases cooked into WAR?  I think he could sustain that. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How much are stolen bases cooked into WAR?  I think he could sustain that. 

They’re cooked in — as are caught stealings.   It takes a success rate north of 70% for steals to have more value than you lose from getting caught. Right now Mateo is 9 for 10, so he’s on the plus side.   BB-ref credits him with 0 Baserunning runs to date, presumably because he made a couple of outs on the bases other than by caught stealings.  Fangraphs has him at +1.1 Baserunning runs, worth about .1 fWAR.  But the impact of his baserunning certainly is calculated in either version of WAR.

The key to stealing bases is getting on base in the first place.  It would be nice if Mateo could get his OBP up from his current .277 to create more opportunities for himself.  

[Aristotelian]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Umm..yea there are people saying that.

And his offense isn't average.  Its below average.

Since he has come to the O's, he has put up 104 OPS+ last year and is at 95 OPS+ this year. That seems pretty average, not even counting his baserunning. His career OPS+ is 95 which is technically below average but I think average is a fair statement when you consider his speed.

[btdart20]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So by that chart Mateo is tied for 11th win the 30 team league.

Or you could spin it as he's in an 8-way tie with an OAA of 1 ranging from 11th through 18th.  And the highest rated one with a 0 at Runs Prevented.  Call that above average if you want.  But his defense isn't a difference maker.  It's good, but not something that sets the O's apart for now.  We're just grateful to have something positive in the IF skill positions.

He's our SS until he's not.  There will likely be a few good SS FAs in the off-season.  Dare I say, Mateo might be a good trade chip?  Phillies, STL, NYY...

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Since he has come to the O's, he has put up 104 OPS+ last year and is at 95 OPS+ this year. That seems pretty average, not even counting his baserunning. His career OPS+ is 95 which is technically below average but I think average is a fair statement when you consider his speed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mateojo01.shtml

No, its not.

 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Or you could spin it as he's in an 8-way tie with an OAA of 1 ranging from 11th through 18th.  And the highest rated one with a 0 at Runs Prevented.  Call that above average if you want.  But his defense isn't a difference maker.  It's good, but not something that sets the O's apart for now.  We're just grateful to have something positive in the IF skill positions.

He's our SS until he's not.  There will likely be a few good SS FAs in the off-season.  Dare I say, Mateo might be a good trade chip?  Phillies, STL, NYY...

I think what I’d mostly say at this point is he’s playing much better defense this year compared to last.   Whether he’s above average and by how much is debatable and the sample is too small to be very meaningful.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think what I’d mostly say at this point is he’s playing much better defense this year compared to last.   Whether he’s above average and by how much is debatable and the sample is too small to be very meaningful.  

Hes not hurting us.  You can't objectively say anything more than that...and that's perfectly fine.

But a 660 OPS and 270 OBP isn't going to cut it.