Jorge Mateo

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mateojo01.shtml

No, its not.

 

My bad, I misread that. I would still say production for the Orioles and current trend as an everyday player has been average hit with plus speed. Overall his hitting has been (past tense) below average, but somewhat compensated for by speed. Fangraphs has him currently at 0.1 Offensive Runs Above Average, -2.4 for '21 through '22. The most pessimistic possible take would be that he has been a slightly below average trending in a positive direction.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

My bad, I misread that. I would still say production for the Orioles and current trend as an everyday player has been average hit with plus speed. Overall his hitting has been (past tense) below average, but somewhat compensated for by speed. Fangraphs has him currently at 0.1 Offensive Runs Above Average, -2.4 for '21 through '22. The most pessimistic possible take would be that he has been a slightly below average trending in a positive direction.

Its just over 200 at bats.  That isn't really enough for a trend.

[LTO's]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But a 660 OPS and 270 OBP isn't going to cut it.

A .660 OPS is pretty much average in 2022. Assuming they don't drastically change the baseballs, Mateo's production to date can most certainly cut it. 

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Its just over 200 at bats.  That isn't really enough for a trend.

Fair enough, we all agree he is unproven and needs to sustain his production. Nobody is saying otherwise.

My original statement was he has sustained average offense since joining the Orioles and I still say that is a fair statement, while simply calling him "below average" is an unfair statement.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hes not hurting us.  You can't objectively say anything more than that...and that's perfectly fine.

But a 660 OPS and 270 OBP isn't going to cut it.

 

Well, you need to consider that the league OPS is only .666 right now.  It hasn’t been a normal year so far.  That’s why his OPS+ is 95.    We’ll see where things go as the year progresses.  

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, you need to consider that the league OPS is only .666 right now.  It hasn’t been a normal year so far.  That’s why his OPS+ is 95.    We’ll see where things go as the year progresses.  

I did consider it.  And then I also saw how bad he was prior to this year and how mediocre of a hitter he was in the minors.  And that all of a sudden expecting him to be an above average everyday ML player, at the age of 27(in a month), isn't realistic at all...but hey, he's a good athlete and he's fast, so that means he's going to be great!

[byrdz]

Just a reminder that Mateo is also still among the leaders in stolen bases as well. 2nd in MLB I believe. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I did consider it.  And then I also saw how bad he was prior to this year and how mediocre of a hitter he was in the minors.  And that all of a sudden expecting him to be an above average everyday ML player, at the age of 27(in a month), isn't realistic at all...but hey, he's a good athlete and he's fast, so that means he's going to be great!

 

Fair enough but stories emerge sometimes of late bloomers and guys who developed at the ML level and were better than they ever were in the minors.  See Mike Yaz.

We all agree.  Jorge Mateo needs to sustain what he's doing and do a little more with the bat.   We all agree that he's talented.   You seem to want to close the book on him when a lot of people want to just see if he can keep doing what he's doing defensively and get a little bit better offensively.   What's the problem with that?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

 

Fair enough but stories emerge sometimes of late bloomers and buys who developed at the ML level and were better than they ever were in the minors.  See Mike Yaz.

We all agree.  Jorge Mateo needs to sustain what he's doing and do a little more with the bat.   We all agree that he's talented.   You seem to want to close the book on him when a lot of people want to just see if he can keep doing what he's doing defensively and get a little bit better offensively.   What's the problem with that?

I want to close the book on him even though I said they should start him everyday?  That's interesting.

And yes, guys emerge...but most are what they are...in fact, its probably 90+% are what they are by this age.  I don't think betting on the few that are exceptions is a great way to build things.

[eddie83]

There is nothing complex about Mateo. He is the ideal type of player the Orioles should give a legitimate shot. He is also not someone anyone should count on for the future. Enjoy it while it lasts and hope for the best. That’s it.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I want to close the book on him even though I said they should start him everyday?  That's interesting.

And yes, guys emerge...but most are what they are...in fact, its probably 90+% are what they are by this age.  I don't think betting on the few that are exceptions is a great way to build things.

Why don't you wait until the end of the season before you draw any conclusions?   Can't wait that long?

 

Betting?   We have something to lose?

 

BTW, you closed the book on Cedric Mullens too!

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Why don't you wait until the end of the season before you draw any conclusions?   Can't wait that long?

 

Betting?   We have something to lose?

I don't need to wait until the end of the season to know that, at almost age 27, he has largely been a failure as a MLer and was a subpar MiLer.

I also don't need to wait until the end of the season to know that, historically speaking, players of his age and past performance do not normally end up productive, everyday MLers, especially at a key position like SS.

I can make those statements now, with 100% certainty and not need the calendar to say October to do it.

I can also say, as I have, that as things stand he should play everyday and see what happens.  Maybe he becomes that rare player.  Its not impossible.  Its just not probable.  Again, I can say that in May because history backs that up.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I did consider it.  And then I also saw how bad he was prior to this year and how mediocre of a hitter he was in the minors.  And that all of a sudden expecting him to be an above average everyday ML player, at the age of 27(in a month), isn't realistic at all...but hey, he's a good athlete and he's fast, so that means he's going to be great!

I realize some people are probably overly enthusiastic about Mateo.  His hitting wasn’t bad for us last year offensively in a SSS, and hasn’t been bad so far this year either.   I agree that his MiL career is probably the most reliable guide.   He’s a .747 OPS guy in the minors.   For me that’s probably .700 - .710 in the majors as the most likely outcome, then adjusted for what’s going on league wide.   I think his .705 with us over 2021-22 is probably more indicative of his abilities than his .545 with the Padres in about half the number of at bats.   We’ll see what happens in a larger sample and with the league adjusting to him and vice versa.   

[RZNJ]

Ok.  It's not probable.   It also wasn't probable that Cedric Mullens would become an All-star.     It wasn't probable that John Means would be a #3 or better starter.  Mateo has got talent.  He's fun to watch.  He's not blocking any prospect from starting at SS for the Orioles right now.   Sit back, enjoy, and we'll see where he ends up.   Not probable.   Possible.  It happens.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I realize some people are probably overly enthusiastic about Mateo.  His hitting wasn’t bad for us last year offensively in a SSS, and hasn’t been bad so far this year either.   I agree that his MiL career is probably the most reliable guide.   He’s a .747 OPS guy in the minors.   For me that’s probably .700 - .710 in the majors as the most likely outcome, then adjusted for what’s going on league wide.   I think his .705 with us over 2021-22 is probably more indicative of his abilities than his .545 with the Padres in about half the number of at bats.   We’ll see what happens in a larger sample and with the league adjusting to him and vice versa.   

He has a 660 OPS and a 270 OBP.  I think the league is doing just fine.