Henderson and Westburg promoted to Norfolk

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I like both players a lot, but 30 PA is 30 PA. I'm much more interested in the combined body of work than what they've done in 10 days (or whatever it is) in Norfolk.

Hey.  We love small sample sizes when guys are cooking and dismiss them when they don't fit our arguments or other convenient reasons.  

[Pushmonkey]

36 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hey.  We love small sample sizes when guys are cooking and dismiss them when they don't fit our arguments or other convenient reasons.  

But the question remains…. Either one of them vs Nevin at 3rd?

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Pushmonkey said:

But the question remains…. Either one of them vs Nevin at 3rd?

I don't think that's a question. I think it's a function of time.

[sportsfan8703]

What would a Gunnar extension look like?  9/100?

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What would a Gunnar extension look like?  9/100?

Whatever Can_of_corn says.   He’s been on the extend Gunnar train since last year, though I’ve never seen him give a figure.   

Personally, I’d never give that much to a player who hasn’t had at least a couple of solid months in the majors.  The White Sox like early deals.  Luis Robert got 6/$50 mm before his rookie year.   Tim Anderson got 6/$25 mm after one season.  Eloy Jimenez got 6/$43 mm before he played in the bigs.  Based on those, I don’t think Henderson is getting 9/$100 mm.    
 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Whatever Can_of_corn says.   He’s been on the extend Gunnar train since last year, though I’ve never seen him give a figure.   

Personally, I’d never give that much to a player who hasn’t had at least a couple of solid months in the majors.  The White Sox like early deals.  Luis Robert got 6/$50 mm before his rookie year.   Tim Anderson got 6/$25 mm after one season.  Eloy Jimenez got 6/$43 mm before he played in the bigs.  Based on those, I don’t think Henderson is getting 9/$100 mm.    
 

I would offer Gunnar the Luis Robert deal and I would want a couple of team options.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would offer Gunnar the Luis Robert deal and I would want a couple of team options.

The Robert deal does have two options each at $20 mm with a $2 mm buyout.  

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Whatever Can_of_corn says.   He’s been on the extend Gunnar train since last year, though I’ve never seen him give a figure.   

Personally, I’d never give that much to a player who hasn’t had at least a couple of solid months in the majors.  The White Sox like early deals.  Luis Robert got 6/$50 mm before his rookie year.   Tim Anderson got 6/$25 mm after one season.  Eloy Jimenez got 6/$43 mm before he played in the bigs.  Based on those, I don’t think Henderson is getting 9/$100 mm.    
 

I try not to give figures.  I'd just be pulling them out of thin air and I have no earthy idea what either side would consider.

[waroriole]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I try not to give figures.  I'd just be pulling them out of thin air and I have no earthy idea what either side would consider.

How can you advocate for it if you don’t know what it would cost?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I try not to give figures.  I'd just be pulling them out of thin air and I have no earthy idea what either side would consider.

But isn’t that where the rubber meets the road?   Lots of players are extendable at some price, but whether to do it depends entirely on the price.  

All you can really do when trying to estimate an extension is look at comps.  

Remember my thread from a few years ago about whether we should offer Austin Hays the same deal Scott Kingery got?  I just looked back at it.   It was before the 2019 season.  Kingery’s deal was 6/$24 mm and three options at $13/14/15 mm.  63% said yes, 37% no.  It’s interesting how that would have worked out, because Hays ended up being hurt a bit in 2019-20 and so he only has accrued 2 years of service through 2021.   The Kingery deal would have been paying him a year early, so it’s probably a loser through 2025 compared to going year by year, but those last two options in what would be FA years for Hays look like they could have a lot of surplus value if Hays stays healthy.   

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But isn’t that where the rubber meets the road?   Lots of players are extendable at some price, but whether to do it depends entirely on the price.  

All you can really do when trying to estimate an extension is look at comps.  

Remember my thread from a few years ago about whether we should offer Austin Hays the same deal Scott Kingery got?  I just looked back at it.   It was before the 2019 season.  Kingery’s deal was 6/$24 mm and three options at $13/14/15 mm.  63% said yes, 37% no.  It’s interesting how that would have worked out, because Hays ended up being hurt a bit in 2019-20 and so he only has accrued 2 years of service through 2021.   The Kingery deal would have been paying him a year early, so it’s probably a loser through 2025 compared to going year by year, but those last two options in what would be FA years for Hays look like they could have a lot of surplus value if Hays stays healthy.   

 

I agree and if I felt confident that I could come up with a realistic number I would.

[Can_of_corn]

58 minutes ago, waroriole said:

How can you advocate for it if you don’t know what it would cost?

I'm advocating for it in principle, I've been clear about that I think.

Obviously it is possible that the number Henderson would require would not make sense for the Orioles and I wouldn't want them to sign him for that figure.

I'm not, have not, suggested they give him a blank check.

 

Sorry but looking up a bunch of comps and crunching a bunch of numbers so I don't look like a complete fool when I throw out a suggestion just doesn't interest me.  I feel fine with simply advocating that the O's attempt to lock up young talent long term.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree and if I felt confident that I could come up with a realistic number I would.

I will continue to play games with it from time to time for various players.  Even if my hypotheticals are off base, it’s fun to see how they compare to what the player actually ends up earning.   I remember doing one on Schoop based on Rougned Odor’s contract as a comp.   Odor ended up being drastically overpaid.   I think Schoop also would have been overpaid compared to what he’s gotten on the market, but not as drastically.  

[seak05]

Combined 4/4 tonight with a double, triple, run, rbi and sb. Not to shabby

[yark14]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

How can you advocate for it if you don’t know what it would cost?

Because it's not CoC's checkbook.

If ownership does not open the pocketbook for significant free agent signings, the least they can do is lock up prospects to long-term deals.  I'm sick of the revenue sharing checks going into the Angelos' bank account.