The Westburg Theory

[Aristotelian]

Just now, wildcard said:

Elias promoted Westburg with about the same profile as Stowers.  That means by Elias standards Stowers is ready to be in the majors.   Its not winning over player development.   Its the next step in player development for Stowers and it also may help the O's win.

You are assuming a "standard" based on an N of 1. I know you buy into trends and small sample sizes but you can't assume that Elias makes promotions in this way. AAA->MLB is different than AA->AAA and the Orioles OF is a different situation than the Norfolk infield. I agree Stowers has met the minimum thresholds for consideration but the situation seems different. If there is one thing we have learned about Elias, he does not care about wins at the MLB level.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I pointed out this in another thread. While Mullins has not been the All-star player he was last year, he's still an average to slightly above average player.

Because of his defense.  But not offensively for the first third of his season.

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, O's84 said:

LOL, this thread has a kind of JTrea against the entire board kinda feel to it.

Hey, we are just talking Orioles baseball here.

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wildcard thinks this team can contend.

Still hoping.  I have not given up.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm confused, what exactly is the Westburg Theory then?

The Westburg Theory is that Stowers' stats are just as good as Westburg's.  And Elias just promoted Westburg so that putting Stowers ready for promotion to the majors.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You are assuming a "standard" based on an N of 1. I know you buy into trends and small sample sizes but you can't assume that Elias makes promotions in this way. AAA->MLB is different than AA->AAA and the Orioles OF is a different situation than the Norfolk infield. I agree Stowers has met the minimum thresholds for consideration but the situation seems different. If there is one thing we have learned about Elias, he does not care about wins at the MLB level.

I know it seems that Elias doesn't care about winning but I don't believe that.  He just prioritizes player development over wins at the major league level.   But the promotion of Stowers is not at the expense of his development, its because he is ready for that step in his development.  And its should also help the O's offense which could help them win.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, shouldn’t this be called The Who cares about batting average theory?

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I know it seems that Elias doesn't care about winning but I don't believe that.  He just prioritizes player development over wins at the major league level.   But the promotion of Stowers is not at the expense of his development, its because he is ready for that step in his development.  And its should also help the O's offense which could help them win.

Right, but promoting Stowers right now would be at the expense of Mullins' development in your plan, until Mancini or Santander is traded. 

[jrobb21613]

How much more does it benefit Stowers to stay AAA getting everyday at bats versus being promoted to the big league club being the left handed power hitter off the bench occasionally providing guys rest until someone is traded?

[sportsfan8703]

53 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Right, but promoting Stowers right now would be at the expense of Mullins' development in your plan, until Mancini or Santander is traded. 

This is pretty obvious. I don’t get what promoting Westburg to AAA has to do with Stowers to the MLB. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Elias promoted Westburg with about the same profile as Stowers.  That means by Elias standards Stowers is ready to be in the majors.   Its not winning over player development.   Its the next step in player development for Stowers and it also may help the O's win.

I really believe that they want to keep Gunnar and Westburg kind of on the same timeline. They both profile to be special type of players and if they can work it out that they go along through the organization together, then all the better.

 

Stowers is a different story. He obviously has power, but there's some holes in his game. The biggest question is, who is he better than that he would be replacing right now?  He's most likely a wash, and they're going to wait until they trade someone or an injury happens.

 

I think we the fans care more about wins than management right now. They're 10 games under without any real help to call on right now. I hope the situation starts clearing up in the next month or so.

[Aglets]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

 I think Adley has arrived and that has started the clock.   Mountcastle, Hays, Mullins, T Wells, Bradish  all  have a chance to be parts of the future.   So is Stowers.  So when he is ready he gets promoted.  That is now or pretty close to now.

And these guys need to start winning.  Improving on the .400 win rate.   Keep building. 

I think 5 or 6 orioles have made their MLB debuts this year.  Many more did last year.  Why is Adley's debut any different in terms of "starting the clock?"    To be clear, I understand why you WANT it to be different and you WANT them to try and win now.   No one likes to lose.   But Elias has not said anything to the effect of "Now is the time to for this team to compete for the playoffs" so it seems like you are just inventing this idea in your head that our front office cares about wins and losses now more than last year. 

When you say "these guys NEED to start winning....."   ...........the question is........or what?   We will finish in last place again?  That's what we do lately.  Elias clearly isn't being held accountable for wins and losses at this point or it seems unlikely that he would still be here.  Not to mention Hyde.

To be clear, I plan on being more of a ray of sunshine and optimism starting in 2023.........I do think there is some slight evidence that Elias wants us to be more competitive starting next year.  I look forward to the day when we are relevant.  But every piece of evidence we have about how Elias is managing THIS 2022 team is that it's all about the future........and the current product is much more of an aside.

[wildcard]

48 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Right, but promoting Stowers right now would be at the expense of Mullins' development in your plan, until Mancini or Santander is traded. 

Not necessarily.  If Elias/Hyde set a rotation of Mancini, Mountcasle, Hays, Mullins, Santander and Stowers for 3 outfield spots, DH and 1B then each player plays 5 games out of 6.   I would give Mullins more time off then that while he is struggling. 

Mullins is not really on a development plan.  He is on a find your stroke again plan.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This is pretty obvious. I don’t get what promoting Westburg to AAA has to do with Stowers to the MLB. 

If you don't get it, you don't get it.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I really believe that they want to keep Gunnar and Westburg kind of on the same timeline. They both profile to be special type of players and if they can work it out that they go along through the organization together, then all the better.

 

Stowers is a different story. He obviously has power, but there's some holes in his game. The biggest question is, who is he better than that he would be replacing right now?  He's most likely a wash, and they're going to wait until they trade someone or an injury happens.

 

I think we the fans care more about wins than management right now. They're 10 games under without any real help to call on right now. I hope the situation starts clearing up in the next month or so.

5 1/2 out of the 3rd wild card spot with almost 4 months to play.  With Stowers, Hall, Martin yet to help and Kremer just beginning to show how he can help.