The Westburg Theory

[spiritof66]

5 hours ago, SteveA said:

A theory whose entire basis is an assumption that Elias cares about improving the record of the major league team this year, and makes moves based on that rather than on player development or future payroll considerations - is flawed from the start.  It's like designing a GPS system based on a belief in a flat earth.  It's broke from the beginning.

EVERYTHING he has done with prospects has been based on him bringing them up only when he feels they are "ready".  And we don't know exactly what "ready" means, whether it is solely based on their development or whether it also includes a healthy dose of slowly playing guys for extra years of control or fewer years of arbitration.  But we sure as heck can see that it has nothing to do with what the need is at the MLB level, or any desire to field a .500 team or even a .450 team instead of a sub-.400 team.

That's true. I've been following baseball for over 60 years, and I don't recall being aware of anything quite like this. I'd say the same thing about what Oakland's doing. That doesn't mean it's new or different, but it's new and different to me.

My understanding -- and I've lost track of how much of this comes directly from Elias -- is that, while there's little or no interest in building a roster that would increase the Orioles' win total right now, that will change when some undefined critical mass of talent has been promoted to the O's. I'm not sure whether that flipping of the switch, or Magic Moment, or whatever you want to call it, will be deemed to occur by an improved record (.450? .500?) for all or part of a season, or by the promotion to the Orioles of enough highly regarded prospects to constitute most of the team or most of the position players. When the Magic Moment is reached, winning more ML games will become a central goal, along with maintaining strength in the minor leagues. The Orioles will then sign free agents and trade for established players to fil out the pitching staff and cover other spots where there's no ML-ready prospect or the anointed prospect fizzles. That is the planned path to contention. 

If that's right, promoting a prospect to the ML and starting his service clock not only requires Elias's determination that the prospect is "ready" (whatever that means) but also takes into consideration the readiness of the other prospects who are expected to join him on the Orioles for a long run with lots of team-controlled talent. It makes sense that the promotion of guys who were "ready" earlier than other prospects penciled in as future Oriole stars, like Rutschman, pre-injury GRod and Stowers, will be deferred as long as Elias can defer them without looking like an idiot or confirming his position as the Prince of Tanking, and that once a few more of these prospects have joined the Orioles prospects who are deemed ML-ready will be promoted more quickly.

This is gonna take a while, even before you build in time for promoted prospects to struggle and the time needed to decide whether they're going to come around or should be replaced. I hate to be cynical -- well, actually, I don't hate it -- but it's a great program if you're a general manager who likes the idea of deferring evaluation of your success in building a contender until you've been on the job for seven or eight years, or if you're a team owner who likes reaping profits by maintaining the sport's smallest player payroll (far less than any team's other than Oakland's), doesn't care how bad the team is as long as it's making money, and is happy to stay with that plan for a while.

 

 

[NCRaven]

I don't believe that Stowers is going to be promoted and take playing time from any of the more established guys in the outfield.  And, he's not being promoted to replace McKenna as the fourth outfield just to sit on the bench.  When Mancini, most likely, or Santander, next most likely is traded, then I can see a rational  reason to promote Stowers.  You could easily rotate Hays, Mancini, Santander and Stowers through the OF/DH positions giving them all regular playing time.

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not necessarily.  If Elias/Hyde set a rotation of Mancini, Mountcasle, Hays, Mullins, Santander and Stowers for 3 outfield spots, DH and 1B then each player plays 5 games out of 6.   I would give Mullins more time off then that while he is struggling. 

Mullins is not really on a development plan.  He is on a find your stroke again plan.

If you believe Stowers is better than Mullins, then that plan doesn't help us win games. I don't know whether resting Stowers every 6 games vs MLB pitching helps him developmentally any more than every day vs AAA. The bigger risk would be a clubhouse dynamic where they are all competing and pressing at the same time. 

[maybenxtyr]

24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

5 1/2 out of the 3rd wild card spot with almost 4 months to play.  With Stowers, Hall, Martin yet to help and Kremer just beginning to show how he can help.

I know it seems like I'm being a jerk about this, but this team is nowhere near a WC spot. Even if they held a spot with their current record they wouldn't be a WC team.

 

They have the 4th worst record in the AL. The SP has been mediocre and losing ground game to game. The 68-69 win pace they are on will most likely get worse as the season drones on. 

 

I really respect you and your optimism, but most of the teams ahead of Baltimore will be making additions as the season goes on. The gap will widen. Unfortunately, we have seen this movie in Baltimore before. 162 games separate the contenders from the bad teams.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I know it seems like I'm being a jerk about this, but this team is nowhere near a WC spot. Even if they held a spot with their current record they wouldn't be a WC team.

 

They have the 4th worst record in the AL. The SP has been mediocre and losing ground game to game. The 68-69 win pace they are on will most likely get worse as the season drones on. 

 

I really respect you and your optimism, but most of the teams ahead of Baltimore will be making additions as the season goes on. The gap will widen. Unfortunately, we have seen this movie in Baltimore before. 162 games separate the contenders from the bad teams.

 

I don't think they look likely to hit .500 next season.  A WC this season is absurd.

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think they look likely to hit .500 next season.  A WC this season is absurd.

I don't either. 68ish wins is ok, but it's still terrible. 

 

You're generally going to win 54...lose 54... it's what they do in the other 54 that matters. 

 

81 wins is really hard to imagine next year. Outside of a few top end guys the minors looks pretty ordinary. Being this far in a rebuild and still not having any answers is sad.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, maybenxtyr said:

I don't either. 68ish wins is ok, but it's still terrible. 

 

You're generally going to win 54...lose 54... it's what they do in the other 54 that matters. 

 

81 wins is really hard to imagine next year. Outside of a few top end guys the minors looks pretty ordinary. Being this far in a rebuild and still not having any answers is sad.

Sad isn't the word I'd use.

I gladly signed on for a tear down.

I didn't know that year five, by design, might not lead to a .500 record.

 

[SteveA]

And now we see what was done with the extra roster spot... Owings back from the bereavement list.   Nevin stayed up.

We also picked up a guy with a 10+ ERA this year who has no options and has to be added to the 26 man roster in the next day or two.

Yep, Elias is definitely going all out for that wild card spot we are only 5.5 games out of.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sad isn't the word I'd use.

I gladly signed on for a tear down.

I didn't know that year five, by design, might not lead to a .500 record.

 

Well the dismantling was more about shedding payroll than bringing back the best prospect return. 

[maybenxtyr]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Sad isn't the word I'd use.

I gladly signed on for a tear down.

I didn't know that year five, by design, might not lead to a .500 record.

 

Yeah, the word I'd use is bull something another. 

 

Thinking Stowers is the answer to being competitive isn't having a genuine conversation.

 

The 14 year stretch was was bad, but there was never a "plan". This stretch has a plan but there doesn't seem to be a goal. Just saying that he wants a pipeline for contending doesn't make it materialize.

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well the dismantling was more about shedding payroll than bringing back the best prospect return. 

Every single thing that has been done in the process has been about saving money. Any hope of contending should be based on this family selling the team. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Every single thing that has been done in the process has been about saving money. Any hope of contending should be based on this family selling the team. 

And when they do spend, like on the facility in the DR, it's to get up to the level all the other teams were already at.

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Yeah, the word I'd use is bull something another. 

 

Thinking Stowers is the answer to being competitive isn't having a genuine conversation.

 

The 14 year stretch was was bad, but there was never a "plan". This stretch has a plan but there doesn't seem to be a goal. Just saying that he wants a pipeline for contending doesn't make it materialize.

There is a plan.

I'm just not sure that actually being competitive is the primary concern.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is a plan.

I'm just not sure that actually being competitive is the primary concern.

Probably getting the organization to “expansion” level and then moving to Nashville. 

[maybenxtyr]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is a plan.

I'm just not sure that actually being competitive is the primary concern.

It doesn't seem to be. There's only so many ways to get this right. Right now as a fan it's hard for me to see what they're actually doing.

 

Anything is possible... especially in baseball but there doesn't look like enough talent in the Minors. Even if the most rosiest outcome for each player comes to pass, there's still not enough talent.