TT: Dean Kremer - Why is he having success, what's different, is it sustainable?

[Tony-OH]

Whenever a pitcher struggles, goes to the minors, and then comes back and has success, I always wonder what's the difference? More importantly, is this success sustainable? Not at the 1.71 ERA level which we know is not sustainable, but is he doing something different from last year when he struggled mightily putting up a 7.55 ERA in 13 starts.

Let's first take a look at his stuff:

Fastball:
The first thing that jumps out at me is the change of success with his fastball this year from last year. Batters are putting up just a .208 WOBA against the pitch vs .403 WOBA last year. Unfortunately the XWOBA is .340 so he's been a bit lucky. The fastball has less spin that has caused less vertical movement than last year and his horizontal movement has one less inch of horizontal movement. He's throwing it almost 10% less of the time as he's increased the use of his cutter and changeup.

Cutter: 
He's added 1.7 inches of horizontal movement at the expense of 1.9 inches of vertical movement. Batters have put up a .326 WOBA but his XWOBA is .350 suggest he's been a bit lucky. He's getting more WHIFF than last year though so it's an improved offering if he's locating it well.

Changeup:

He's throwing 8.6 % of the time more than last year and his WOBA .379 is below average but better than the .621 he gave up on the pitch last year. Strangely, his XWOBA on the pitch both this year and last year are basically the same (.334 and .332) suggesting he's been unlucky with the pitch. The good news is he's added 4.1 inches of drop to the pitch.

Curveball:
Once his best strikeout pitch in the minor leagues, the change of balls and perhaps spyder tack has made it more of an occasionally pitch. He's throwing it 7.1 % less but has changed the shape a bit, adding 1.8 inches of horizontal break, losing 4.8 inches of vertical break and adding almost a  MPH to at 76.4 MPH. He's getting 20% whiff compared to 30.2% last year. 

Overall: 

There is some difference in the drop to the changeup and horizontal movement to the cutter as well as adding a MPH to most of his pitches. Not a huge difference, but some improvements which could be allowing his fastball to play up a bit.

Mistakes:

So far, it looks like he's limiting mistakes with his cutter and curveball, keeping them more down and away and he's able to keep his changeup low and away and closer to the strikezone. 

Overall:

There will be regression here, but if he can limit his mistakes, the four pitch mix should play well enough to stick as a starter. How good will be determined by how well he can limit his mistakes. His fastball still gets hit too hard so he's going to need to be able to throw his other pitches for strikes in order for the pitch to play up. The improvements in movement to the cutter and are nice developments.

 

 

[Oriole1940]

Maybe some of his success is due to the Pitching Coach working with him.  After all, is that not the major job of the Pitching Coach, to work with a Pitcher who is struggling.   Maybe after all this time, the advice he was given has sunk in and he is using whatever he was aided with.  Sometimes even a little success builds a lot of confidence too.   

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Oriole1940 said:

Maybe some of his success is due to the Pitching Coach working with him.  After all, is that not the major job of the Pitching Coach, to work with a Pitcher who is struggling.   Maybe after all this time, the advice he was given has sunk in and he is using whatever he was aided with.  Sometimes even a little success builds a lot of confidence too.   

It very well could be that the pitching coaches were able to help him get the extra movement. I'm more focused on the stuff, movement, velocity and command wise. 

[ChosenOne21]

Sounds like Kremer has improved from his abysmal last year, but is getting pretty lucky. Tony, what do you think Kremer would look like with his current stuff and average luck? 4th/5th starter, ERA somewhere between 4.50 and 5.50?

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Sounds like Kremer has improved from his abysmal last year, but is getting pretty lucky. Tony, what do you think Kremer would look like with his current stuff and average luck? 4th/5th starter, ERA somewhere between 4.50 and 5.50?

I think it's reasonable to think he could be a #4 starter. His improvement on the drop of his change and ability to locate it low and away will help. I'm not a huge fan of the cutter because any mistakes with the pitch ends up a BP fastball, but if he limits those mistakes, he can be fine.

[Frobby]

My shorthand read of that analysis is that Kremer has been pretty lucky.  Probably so, but I’m still hoping that his improved confidence can continue to carry him into being a respectable starting pitcher.   

[Sports Guy]

We’ll see.  All of this is great data but we need a larger sample size for it to be really valuable.

I really like that the str% is up.  I think that is huge.  But he has to get more Ks and miss more bats.

I’m fine with him getting more starts and see if he continues to build on the numbers Tony has provided.  That said, I would be happy if they dealt Tate and moved Kremer to the pen for the second half of the year and we see if he can be really good as a short inning reliever.  
 

Obviously, that move is predicated on what he can do as a starter over the next 4-6 weeks but if he is looking like a borderline starter, I would like to see him tried out in the pen, late in games.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We’ll see.  All of this is great data but we need a larger sample size for it to be really valuable.

I really like that the str% is up.  I think that is huge.  But he has to get more Ks and miss more bats.

I’m fine with him getting more starts and see if he continues to build on the numbers Tony has provided.  That said, I would be happy if they dealt Tate and moved Kremer to the pen for the second half of the year and we see if he can be really good as a short inning reliever.  
 

Obviously, that move is predicated on what he can do as a starter over the next 4-6 weeks but if he is looking like a borderline starter, I would like to see him tried out in the pen, late in games.

Like Bradish, long term his best role may be i the pen, but with four pitches, I think you gotta see if he can stick as a starter, even if it's a 4th/th guy on a good team.

[Sports Guy]

How are we even defining a 4th starter nowadays?

Has anyone updated those rankings/qualifications with pitchers pitching less now?

[PHRESH]

Is he throwing more strikes than balls this season? (Not sure where I'd even find that stat lol)

I feel like that has aided Akin this season.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, PHRESH said:

Is he throwing more strikes than balls this season? (Not sure where I'd even find that stat lol)

I feel like that has aided Akin this season.

His str% is close to 65%.  It had been close to 60% in the previous 2 stints.

[PHRESH]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

His str% is close to 65%.  It had been close to 60% in the previous 2 stints.

Ok, so it's up a little, but probably a negligible amount. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

Ok, so it's up a little, but probably a negligible amount. 

I dunno, IIRC 65% is pretty good and not so negligible from 60%.

What I want to know is if he's getting ahead in the count more often.  I don't believe all strikes are created equal.  So while SG shows that stat, overall I believe that information to be good.  But no one can convince me that a first pitch strike has less value than a 3-0 strike.  It can't possibly be the same value because batting averages, on base percentages and slugging percentages vary throughout the at bat depending on the pitch count.

So while his strike percentage is up, I'm assuming that has to mean he's getting ahead in more at bats and not having to throw a "get me over" fastball on 3-0 or 3-1.  

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

Ok, so it's up a little, but probably a negligible amount. 

MLb average is 63.7%.  It’s a pretty big number.  It may only be 6-8 more strikes but that can make or break innings, at bats, etc…

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I dunno, IIRC 65% is pretty good and not so negligible from 60%.

What I want to know is if he's getting ahead in the count more often.  I don't believe all strikes are created equal.  So while SG shows that stat, overall I believe that information to be good.  But no one can convince me that a first pitch strike has less value than a 3-0 strike.  It can't possibly be the same value because batting averages, on base percentages and slugging percentages vary throughout the at bat depending on the pitch count.

So while his strike percentage is up, I'm assuming that has to mean he's getting ahead in more at bats and not having to throw a "get me over" fastball on 3-0 or 3-1.  

 

His first pitch str% is 61.6%.  It was 55.7% in 2021 and 42% in 2020.  League average is 54.2%.
 

His P/PA are also better than league average.  He is under 3.8.  He has been above 4 the previous 2 years.

Of course we have to bear in mind that we are under 100 IP in total in his career, so these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt.