Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Jammer7]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

In today's game of strikeouts and launch angles how many more balls do you really think a "twitchy" defender at second is going to get to over an "average" defender? 

Not enough to make up the difference between a 70 grade bat and your average bat at 2B that's for sure.

 

Also I'm not sure what you mean by "laid back guy" but it sounds insulting.  It kinda sounds like you are calling him lazy.

 

Also I just want to state, again, I'm not advocating for the kid.  I don't buy that the bat is that special. 

How many double plays have we turned this year? How many turned at 2B? How many times has Roogie or Mateo made a play on a tough chance to get an out to get a pitcher out of an inning? Fairly often to my recollection. 

The pitching is changing to more 2 seamers, more sinkers than in recent years. I am out tonight, so I am not going to research the actual numbers. For now, just worthless anecdotal observations. Offense is supposed to be down this year, from what I have seen. And infield defense has been atrocious around the league. 

Twitchy is about quickness, no matter what any other posters say, it matters. It is what it is. Quick movement of hands and feet matter. Johnson is not that at 195 pounds. He just isn’t. I don’t need anyone to tell me that. He, himself, in an interview with Harold Reynolds at the combine admitted he plays laid back, in the mold of Cano, according to Reynolds. Not an insult, just an honest observation by more than just me. From Termarr himself. He talked about the criticism that he plays nonchalant. They said it’s because he makes plays look easy. I don’t see that, but I’m not going to disparage others for their opinions. 

Look, I am not a fan of picking him at 1-1. He may be a fine hitter, but I outlined why I would not take him for the Orioles. When he is about 25 or so, I think he slows down quite a bit. He’s going to get thicker, not thinner. He’s going to get slower, laterally. My opinion, but I don’t get paid for my opinions. So, what could I possibly know? In 5-7 years, you and others can tell me how wrong I was. I will gladly accept it. Until then, I guess we’ll see.

Edit: I found an article supporting you, Corn, on the lesser GB rate.

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10033721-mlbs-offensive-woes-are-casting-a-boring-cloud-over-the-new-season.amp.html
 

Corn, you are correct on that. I do believe it is changing as the FB usage is going down and there are more sliders and other off speed pitches than FB. Ben McDonald and Jim Palmer have spoken about it recently. The usage of 2S and sinkers are increasing because hitters have adjusted to high spin 4S up in the zone.

I watched a game a few days ago, the Brewers and White Sox, I believe. The commentators were saying the same thing. That game was an exhibit of the bad infield defense I was speaking of. Numerous misplays that were not all errors, but the miscues cost the pitchers several outs and runs scored. 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Jammer7
Correction

[RZNJ]

https://www.mlb.com/video/termarr-johnson-joins-combine-show

I listened to the interview twice. I guess you can hear what you want.  They compared him to Jose Ramirez and Termarr said Ramirez played with ease.  When they compared his hitting to Cano Termarr said he liked to make it look easy.  The words laid back were never used.  I guess you could make that connection but to me laid back suggests lack of energy and effort.  If that were the case, it's hard to believe you wouldn't see that in reports.  I've also seen him described with quick footwork and a quick first step.  Whatever.   I actually agree with CoC.   I have no problem with his size or the reports concerning his defense (with a average being the worst).  I'm just skeptical of the hit tool actually being elite.  As for losing a step or slowing down at 25, that seems like a totally arbitrary number based on ......  ?

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Just to recap

1. It doesn't matter how good Johnson's bat is

2. He's 5'8" and can't be that good

3. He's projected to be average defensively at 2B but some people insist he'll be below average or that even average stinks.

4. Even though Johnson was rated #1 pre-season and Law has him #3, McDaniel has him #2, and most have him top 5, he shouldn't be the #1 pick BECAUSE ....... drum roll ......   a 2B hasn't been picked #1 before so that must mean it's the wrong thing to do.

5. Doesn't matter how many "experts" have him as a top 3 talent in the draft or have no problem if he's taken #1.   Must be stupid.

 

Good synopsis.   Like I’ve been saying, this isn’t that complicated.   If you love the bat and think he’s clearly the best hitter in the draft, you take him.   If you don’t think so, you take someone else.   

[Sydnor]

41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

https://www.mlb.com/video/termarr-johnson-joins-combine-show

I listened to the interview twice. I guess you can hear what you want.  They compared him to Jose Ramirez and Termarr said Ramirez played with ease.  When they compared his hitting to Cano Termarr said he liked to make it look easy.  The words laid back were never used.  I guess you could make that connection but to me laid back suggests lack of energy and effort.  If that were the case, it's hard to believe you wouldn't see that in reports.  I've also seen him described with quick footwork and a quick first step.  Whatever.   I actually agree with CoC.   I have no problem with his size or the reports concerning his defense (with a average being the worst).  I'm just skeptical of the hit tool actually being elite.  As for losing a step or slowing down at 25, that seems like a totally arbitrary number based on ......  ?

Good post. For what it’s worth, Keith Law also referred to him as an additional coach on the field and said he had exceptional makeup. Law also didn’t say he didn’t have the arm strength to stay at short. He said he would have to move off SS because of his footwork. If they take Johnson, I’m fine with it, but I don’t have a strong opinion other than preferring a high school bat.

Johnson has the best pure hit tool in the draft class, with scouts saying it’s the best hit tool they’ve seen on a high school kid in a decade or more. Despite a small hitch in his swing, he does hit all pitch types and controls the zone, with outstanding hand-eye coordination and great bat speed, making good quality contact but with only average power. He’s a shortstop now but will move to second base in pro ball, with good hands but not the footwork to handle short. I think the present hit tool is a 60, at best, rather than a 70, although perhaps it will get there in time, but he’s swung and missed enough against good competition that the higher grade doesn’t apply just yet. He has exceptional makeup in every evaluation, from his feel for the game to the way he acts as an additional coach on the field to the interviews he’s had with scouts and team executives, so there’s greater confidence that he’ll reach his ceiling than there is for just about any high school player. That ceiling is tied to just how good his hit tool can become.
 

https://theathletic.com/3409886/2022/07/10/mlb-draft-2022-top-100-ranking/?source=user_shared_article

[Jammer7]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

https://www.mlb.com/video/termarr-johnson-joins-combine-show

I listened to the interview twice. I guess you can hear what you want.  They compared him to Jose Ramirez and Termarr said Ramirez played with ease.  When they compared his hitting to Cano Termarr said he liked to make it look easy.  The words laid back were never used.  I guess you could make that connection but to me laid back suggests lack of energy and effort.  If that were the case, it's hard to believe you wouldn't see that in reports.  I've also seen him described with quick footwork and a quick first step.  Whatever.   I actually agree with CoC.   I have no problem with his size or the reports concerning his defense (with a average being the worst).  I'm just skeptical of the hit tool actually being elite.  As for losing a step or slowing down at 25, that seems like a totally arbitrary number based on ......  ?

It was a different interview with Harold and another former player, maybe Adam Jones or Cliff Floyd. It was on the last day of the combine. I watched it live. I could not find it on YouTube or MLB. Not sure why it isn’t there, but I guess not all of the interviews make it there. Not a big deal. 

Look, I just do not think he would be a good pick at 1-1. You, and CoC, agree with that as you have said. We have different reasons. I have my questions about him based on what I see, and read. I never said anyone is stupid, or whatever for valuing him differently. I’m not arguing with anyone here, and I remain civil and respectful. We disagree, and that is allowed. 

If he is the pick, I will support him. And hope I am wrong. The guy is built like an SEC running back. The only 2B I can remember with that thicker build is Howie Kendrick. There are good reasons why, generally speaking, as I have stated previously.

All of the gurus like Law and Callis and the BA guys said Nick Madrigal, the #4 overall pick in 2018 was a great prospect too. He’s 5-08 175. They sometimes get it wrong. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It was a different interview with Harold and another former player, maybe Adam Jones or Cliff Floyd. It was on the last day of the combine. I watched it live. I could not find it on YouTube or MLB. Not sure why it isn’t there, but I guess not all of the interviews make it there. Not a big deal. 

Look, I just do not think he would be a good pick at 1-1. You, and CoC, agree with that as you have said. We have different reasons. I have my questions about him based on what I see, and read. I never said anyone is stupid, or whatever for valuing him differently. I’m not arguing with anyone here, and I remain civil and respectful. We disagree, and that is allowed. 

If he is the pick, I will support him. And hope I am wrong. The guy is built like an SEC running back. The only 2B I can remember with that thicker build is Howie Kendrick. There are good reasons why, generally speaking, as I have stated previously.

All of the gurus like Law and Callis and the BA guys said Nick Madrigal, the #4 overall pick in 2018 was a great prospect too. He’s 5-08 175. They sometimes get it wrong. 

They many, many times get it wrong on guys who are 6'3" 210.  If they are wrong about Johnson it has nothing to do with his height.  He's either as good as they say or he isn't. 

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

They many, many times get it wrong on guys who are 6'3" 210.  If they are wrong about Johnson it has nothing to do with his height.  He's either as good as they say or he isn't. 

I do not believe I have ever said he was too short. I have pointed to his body type/build. He’s a thick dude. He is built like a RB. Very think legs. Infielders are generally more lithe or wiry. That is all I was saying.

Scouts, Front Office guys, and draft writers are wrong a lot, absolutely, regardless of what the body type is. I’m wrong a lot more than them, but my opinions are based on my experiences like everyone. I just cannot think of another quality major league 2B with a thick build like Johnson. Maybe he’ll be the first one like that. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I do not believe I have ever said he was too short. I have pointed to his body type/build. He’s a thick dude. He is built like a RB. Very think legs. Infielders are generally more lithe or wiry. That is all I was saying.

Scouts, Front Office guys, and draft writers are wrong a lot, absolutely, regardless of what the body type is. I’m wrong a lot more than them, but my opinions are based on my experiences like everyone. I just cannot think of another quality major league 2B with a thick build like Johnson. Maybe he’ll be the first one like that. 

You just made a point of bringing up 5'8" Nick Madrigal but it has nothing to do with height?  Why did you bring up Madrigal and list his height then?

[jrobb21613]

After a slow start in the Sunbelt league Johnson is more than holding his own. He’s cut way back on the strike outs and has reached base safely in all but one game. 
 

http://sunbelt2013.wttbaseball.pointstreak.com/player.html?playerid=1584055&seasonid=33283

[Jammer7]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You just made a point of bringing up 5'8" Nick Madrigal but it has nothing to do with height?  Why did you bring up Madrigal and list his height then?

Just a similar size 2B. There are not many first round picks close to his profile recently, much less 2B. Nothing else to it about the height specifically. It’s the body type. Height is just one characteristic. I think I’ve been pretty clear on that. Not the focus of what I have written.

I would like a bit more value for 1-1. Elias gets paid to know a lot  more than me, of course. If he picks him, he has seen what they like. I have not seen much of him. BP and grounders in a practice setting mostly. Some game video. Maybe he’ll be the star many say he will be. I’ll eat every word then, gladly. 

[Sydnor]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Just a similar size 2B. There are not many first round picks close to his profile recently, much less 2B. Nothing else to it about the height specifically. It’s the body type. Height is just one characteristic. I think I’ve been pretty clear on that. Not the focus of what I have written.

I would like a bit more value for 1-1. Elias gets paid to know a lot  more than me, of course. If he picks him, he has seen what they like. I have not seen much of him. BP and grounders in a practice setting mostly. Some game video. Maybe he’ll be the star many say he will be. I’ll eat every word then, gladly. 

I am just curious, would you prefer Brooks Lee to Termarr, and if so, why? I would be happy with basically anyone but Lee and would love to have someone convince me he would be a good pick. I see numbers that don’t really wow me given the level of competition he has faced (and the lack of walks when he played on the Cape), someone that is going to have to move off SS (like Johnson), is a slow runner, has a lot of effort in his swing, and doesn’t have big power potential.

[RZNJ]

53 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I am just curious, would you prefer Brooks Lee to Termarr, and if so, why? I would be happy with basically anyone but Lee and would love to have someone convince me he would be a good pick. I see numbers that don’t really wow me given the level of competition he has faced (and the lack of walks when he played on the Cape), someone that is going to have to move off SS (like Johnson), is a slow runner, has a lot of effort in his swing, and doesn’t have big power potential.

Almost everyone says Lee is not going to stay at SS. No argument there.  If you are going to mention the 3 walks on the Cape, which is fair, also mention the .400 average and 6 home runs with wood bat in 88 AB's.  I've seen his speed tool rated a 40 and a 50.  In the video I've seen, he doesn't look like a slug. A lot of effort in his swing?  I don't see it.  His swing looks simple and direct to me.  This is no Gary Sheffield, Javy Baez, Roughned Odor, max effort swing.  

[Sports Guy]

Is anyone saying Johnson can’t/won’t be a good player?

[Sydnor]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Almost everyone says Lee is not going to stay at SS. No argument there.  If you are going to mention the 3 walks on the Cape, which is fair, also mention the .400 average and 6 home runs with wood bat in 88 AB's.  I've seen his speed tool rated a 40 and a 50.  In the video I've seen, he doesn't look like a slug. A lot of effort in his swing?  I don't see it.  His swing looks simple and direct to me.  This is no Gary Sheffield, Javy Baez, Roughned Odor, max effort swing.  

When I have watched video of Brooks Lee swinging, in particular his left handed swing, it seems really jerky in the hips and his hips upper body came wide open. So perhaps effort was not that right word, but it seems like effort to me. Fair point about the HRs. I’m still not convinced he would be a good pick, but we’ll see what happens on Sunday.

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

When I have watched video of Brooks Lee swinging, in particular his left handed swing, it seems really jerky in the hips and his hips upper body came wide open. So perhaps effort was not that right word, but it seems like effort to me. Fair point about the HRs. I’m still not convinced he would be a good pick, but we’ll see what happens on Sunday.

Everyone looks good in highlights.  It's an interesting swing but I'm impressed. Also looks solid average as a runner to me on the doubles.

https://www.google.com/search?q=brooks+lee+highlights&oq=brooks+lee+&aqs=chrome.3.69i59j69i60j69i57j69i59l2j69i60l2j46i20i263i512.7108j0j7&client=ms-android-tmus-us-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:518eba8e,vid:TtxKD9qFBNk,st:0