A Pennant Race and a Playoff Berth should be the Goal for the 2022 O's

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At the 1989 All Star break the Orioles were 5.5 games up on the entire 7-team AL East. Today's Orioles have ridden an 8-game winning streak to within a game of .500, they're 18.5 games out, and they're sitting on 8% playoff odds with expanded wildcards.

You don't trade Mancini or anyone else for a pittance (or a 17-year-old Dominican).  But this is not 1989.  If the offer is good you don't pass because of a less than 10% shot at a wildcard with a team that would start Jordan Lyles in game one of any playoff series.

Completely agree, but what would constitute a "good" offer for Mancini that is a realistic as well as worth shipping him off in the midst of an admittedly borderline playoff run? 

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's are the 2 games out of the wild card  with 2 and a half month to go.   Nothing would move this team forward better than to be a pennant race and to make the playoffs.  It is invaluable experience for a young team.  

So don't trade away key players at the deadline.  Instead add players from the minors to supplement the team for the rest for the season. 

Trades can be made in the off season.

Technically we are actually (sort of) 3 games out.   Because we are 2 games behind Seattle and Toronto.   But we went 2-4 against Seattle so if we tie with them, they will have the tiebreaker against us for the #3 wild card.   There is no longer a 1 game playoff to decide who is a division winner or wild card.   It is all settled by tiebreaks, with head to head record the #1 decider.

So we have to finish a game ahead of Seattle to beat them out for a wild card, making us effectively 3 games out.   In the days when ties were settled on the field, that wouldn't be the case.

(We are 2-2 against Toronto, with 15 left to play.   Winning 8 of those 15 will be a necessity)

[accinfo]

The unknown issue is even if the Orioles traded away Trey Mancini because they like the return that the player that takes his place like Stowers doesn't perform as well as Trey will the rest of the season.  Or a Westburg comes up the second half and gives the team more offense then who has played the infield to date.  This year is different because you are not replacing these players with Dwight Smith Jr, DJ Stewart.  Even if you traded Jorge Lopez I would feel pretty confident with Bautista as the closer for the second half.  I wouldn't give anyone away but I certainly wouldn't not trade these guys even if we are still 2 games out of the wildcard on July 31.

[BirdinBama]

I hate to move Mancini in light of the fact that he won't bring back much. Might as well hold on to him for the ride, especially with his dugout/leadership qualities.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, foxfield said:

The Orioles are in last place 18.5 games back and last place in the American League East while playing the unquestioned best baseball the team has played in at least 5 years.

While there will be, in fact, some awesome exciting games coming up and a great opportunity for young players, the Orioles would hurt the future to not seek trades of Mancini, Santander and a bull pen piece or two.  Why?  

Because you are correct, nothing would move this club forward more than a pennant race. But the Orioles are not in one.  We can in fact make trades that can help our starting pitching.  Say Mancini and a reliever to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot?  I am not even saying that is possible, but the Orioles would be crazy not to do that type of deal.  

Hell the Orioles could have a conversation with Mancini and tell him they want him back to finish the run, but need to move him now.  But deviating from the plan to win a World Series and be a consistent contender because we have broken the barrier of 20 games out of first would be asinine.

What we should expect is that this is the floor and that from here the climb begins...but getting to .500 is a mark to celebrate and is an accomplishment to expect and build on.  

It is no reason to irrationally wreck a foundation that has brought a painful rebuild.  No.   Trading Mancini, Santander or others for real value, if it is there, for talent that helps the climb from the cellar of the AL East can be done.  And that does not have to mean accepting .350 baseball till next year.  But keeping these guys and not making real moves that could move the dial this year or next year...is sorta how we got to the bottom in the first place.

A little dramatic and, of course, not close to what I said.  But why let that stand in the way of a good rant.

Irrationally wreak the foundation of the rebuild?  Please.   I didn't say Elias should not trade Mancini and/or Santander.   I just said wait until the off season.   Sign Mancini  and look at what is offered in the off season.  I fail to see how that wreaks the rebuild.

I have been watching MLB for over 60 years and being two games out of the playoffs in July is being in the pennant race.  Has always been that way and will probably always be that way.   Being 18 games out of the division lost its meaning when MLB installed the wild card system.  

If the O's win a wild card spot they have a chance to win the pennant.  They don't have to win the division to win the pennant.  They have to win the playoffs to win the pennant.   So don't confuse winning the division with winning the pennant.

Never the less, being in a pennant race and then hopefully playing in the playoffs is the best thing for a young team.   Its great experience on how to do it again and learning what it takes to win the World Series.

[FlaO'sFan]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Never the less, being in a pennant race and then hopefully playing in the playoffs is the best thing for a young team.   Its great experience on how to do it again and learning what it takes to win the World Series.

Yes, and gives the players great confidence that they can achieve this moving forward.

Edited July 11, 2022 by FlaO'sFan

[AnythingO's]

Boston got hot against weaker teams, have the worst win % against the East, and have the most games against the East remaining of the WC teams. Their next 10 are against the East. If they stumble and fall back to fighting the BJs for 4th, would they sell? Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill are all FAs and Sale isn't back. JDM is also a FA, I'm not sure about Devers. If they sell the bar for WC 6 is alot lower.

[Too Tall]

 

2 hours ago, Daddy-O's said:

There comes a time in a rebuild when you stop looking at who you can trade and start looking at who you can get.  We have reached that point.  If we can trade for starting pitching and the trade deadline facilitates that then we should do it.

This. But only if it helps the team now and going forward next year. What you don't do is get all hot and bothered over an eight game win streak and deviate from the plan.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's are the 2 games out of the wild card  with 2 and a half month to go.   Nothing would move this team forward better than to be a pennant race and to make the playoffs.  It is invaluable experience for a young team.  

So don't trade away key players at the deadline.  Instead add players from the minors to supplement the team for the rest for the season. 

Trades can be made in the off season.

You apparently loved Peter Angelos and 40 years of mediocrity. Not moving outgoing assets would be a mistake.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

You apparently loved Peter Angelos and 40 years of mediocrity. Not moving outgoing assets would be a mistake.

Peter was not a good owner for a lot of his tenure but he had his moments.   Best record in the AL from 2012-2016.  That's 5 pretty good years.   And the World Series that was stolen from the O's by an umpire in the mid 90s.  None of that was mediocrity.

But this is a whole different team strategy under Elias.  And I am not against trading veterans for young players but not in a pennant race when experience counts.   Better to do that in the off season when more players can be added and subtracted.

Who did the O's move at last years deadline.  Galvis and selling Armstrong.  They kept Tanner until the off season.   Elias just sold Sedlock.  And I could see Bannon, Martin, and Neustrom also going because the O's probably will not have room to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

You apparently loved Peter Angelos and 40 years of mediocrity. Not moving outgoing assets would be a mistake.

Even with the team playing better than expectations I have zero doubt that Elias is looking towards 2023 and beyond. And it’s likely we see a veteran player or two traded by the end of the month.

I’m not opposed to trading for established talent, but it needs to be for a player under team control the next two or three years. I don’t want a veteran rental who will be a free agent next offseason. 

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, SteveA said:

Technically we are actually (sort of) 3 games out.   Because we are 2 games behind Seattle and Toronto.   But we went 2-4 against Seattle so if we tie with them, they will have the tiebreaker against us for the #3 wild card.   There is no longer a 1 game playoff to decide who is a division winner or wild card.   It is all settled by tiebreaks, with head to head record the #1 decider.

So we have to finish a game ahead of Seattle to beat them out for a wild card, making us effectively 3 games out.   In the days when ties were settled on the field, that wouldn't be the case.

(We are 2-2 against Toronto, with 15 left to play.   Winning 8 of those 15 will be a necessity)

They really got rid of tiebreaker games?  Man, those were fun.  I know they're a scheduling nightmare and they probably screwed us in 1989, but I really liked the unpredictable nature of them.

[Roll Tide]

52 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Peter was not a good owner for a lot of his tenure but he had his moments.   Best record in the AL from 2012-2016.  That's 5 pretty good years.   And the World Series that was stolen from the O's by an umpire in the mid 90s.  None of that was mediocrity.

But this is a whole different team strategy under Elias.  And I am not against trading veterans for young players but not in a pennant race when experience counts.   Better to do that in the off season when more players can be added and subtracts.

Who did the O's move at last years deadline.  Galvis and selling Armstrong.  They kept Tanner until the off season.   Elias just sold Sedlock.  And I could see Bannon, Martin, and Neustrom also going because the O's probably will not have room to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

 

Elias will not Deviate from the plan to chase a final wild card slot where your chances of winning the World Series is very low. It’s Fools gold

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Even with the team playing better than expectations I have zero doubt that Elias is looking towards 2023 and beyond. And it’s likely we see a veteran player or two traded by the end of the month.

I’m not opposed to trading for established talent, but it needs to be for a player under team control the next two or three years. I don’t want a veteran rental who will be a free agent next offseason. 

I don’t think he trades the value guys for any rental. I think he will get value out of Mancini, Santander, Lopez, and perhaps another RP. Could he dump a guy or two in for a now guy ? I think it would have to be a surplus infielder. I can even see a scenario where Odor gets DFA and traded for basically nothing. It’s hard to say how it will play out but I think Elias has been very honest about what he’s doing if your listening. I’ve advocated for a guy like Bumgarner that we would give a couple middling prospects for in a salary dump. They would eat 50% of what he makes the rest of this year and next. We would have his 2024 salary. He’d instantly be our best starter.

[oriolefan1035]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's are the 2 games out of the wild card  with 2 and a half month to go.   Nothing would move this team forward better than to be a pennant race and to make the playoffs.  It is invaluable experience for a young team.  

So don't trade away key players at the deadline.  Instead add players from the minors to supplement the team for the rest for the season. 

Trades can be made in the off season.

I agree with you. What do folks really think we’d be getting for the likes of Mancini, Lyles, and Santander anyway? Prospects have greatly increased in value in recent years at the trade deadline. Jorge Soler was flipped for Kasey Kalich at the deadline last year. That’s probably close to what we could expect for Mancini. Jon Lester for Lane Thomas might be a comp for Lyles. These are not the type of prospects are even likely to have an MLB career - we shouldn’t be sacrificing a playoff chance (even if it’s small) to add those types of players. Anyone advocating we sell at this point simply has not been paying attention to how overvalued prospects have become in the past few years.