Which player would you be most/least excited about?

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Based on Longenhagen and Law's discussion on Jones, I didn't get the impression that either of them considered him to be one of the best prospects in recent years. Both of them seem to agree he has the most upside but a lot of his value is carried by his defensive ability. For whatever reason, I have a strong suspicion the pick will be an infielder. I think it's between Holliday, Johnson and Lee. 

Ha.  I have no idea.  I'm starting to think they've just been leaking things to help with negotiations.    Johnson in for the workout was common news.  In the past, we never heard about those workouts until after the draft.    The leak about Sig loving Lee.   The Orioles don't let anything slip out.  It's almost like they put that out there.  I'm guessing they do go with Jones.   Jones probably has the highest ceiling in the draft along with Green but Jones has got tons of projection.   Just look how much he's improved from last year to this year.   He plays a premium position.   The Orioles do not have a true CF prospect in the system.     Lee likely moves to 3B or 2B.   We got that covered.    I suppose you could say we don't have a true SS in the system as well which would lead credence to Holliday as the pick as well.    If you have 5 guys and "need" is the tiebraker, that would rule out Lee, Johnson, and Green (corner OF).

By the way, Holliday put up great numbers in HS.  I see he's listed at 5'11"  175 or so.   He looks like he's about 14 years old (not a criticism).   He doesn't have a big frame so I'm not sure how much he fills out and if he does fill out does that affect his mobility at SS.     Jones has already gotten stronger from last year and you can dream on him putting on another 15-20 lbs of good weight without slowing down at all.     As others have said, with all of the picks, the can go slot or close on Jones and still go overslot on at least one of the other picks OR they can just play it straight which seems to have also worked at times.

[forphase1]

Of the top 5 the only one I'd be really disappointed in would be Green.  Just way to much swing and miss in his game for me to be happy drafting him 1:1.  The other 4 I can see reasonable arguments why they could go 1:1.  They all have some question marks in my mind too, but I'd be excited for Jones, Holliday and Johnson.  Less excited for Lee, but that's partly due to age as I want to take a flyer on a high schooler.  And I'd be disappointed if we take Green.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Of the top 5 the only one I'd be really disappointed in would be Green.  Just way to much swing and miss in his game for me to be happy drafting him 1:1.  The other 4 I can see reasonable arguments why they could go 1:1.  They all have some question marks in my mind too, but I'd be excited for Jones, Holliday and Johnson.  Less excited for Lee, but that's partly due to age as I want to take a flyer on a high schooler.  And I'd be disappointed if we take Green.  

If they take Green, I think it’s safe to say they don’t worry about the swing and miss to the level it’s being portrayed.

We know his ceiling is high, maybe higher than everyone, so it’s not a lack of talent.

If they take him, I will be fine with it because it tells me whatever issue he has they deem as very fixable. 
 

But at the end of the day, there really are only 2 worthy picks. 

[Flash- bd]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But at the end of the day, there really are only 2 worthy picks.

Who is that? 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Who is that? 

Jones and Holliday.  Jones should be the pick but Holliday is defensible.  

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If they take Green, I think it’s safe to say they don’t worry about the swing and miss to the level it’s being portrayed.

We know his ceiling is high, maybe higher than everyone, so it’s not a lack of talent.

If they take him, I will be fine with it because it tells me whatever issue he has they deem as very fixable. 
 

But at the end of the day, there really are only 2 worthy picks. 

We will have to agree to disagree on the number of worthy picks.  I certainly don't see it as a top 2 and the other 3 are way below them.  As to Green, sure, if they've identified something they can fix with the swing and miss, then roll the dice as he does have a very high ceiling.  Maybe it being portrayed as a larger issue than it is, but almost every report you read on Green talks about the swing and miss issue, and frankly that's an issue I personally don't care for.  

[RZNJ]

33 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Of the top 5 the only one I'd be really disappointed in would be Green.  Just way to much swing and miss in his game for me to be happy drafting him 1:1.  The other 4 I can see reasonable arguments why they could go 1:1.  They all have some question marks in my mind too, but I'd be excited for Jones, Holliday and Johnson.  Less excited for Lee, but that's partly due to age as I want to take a flyer on a high schooler.  And I'd be disappointed if we take Green.  

We keep talking about the swing and miss with Green.   Is there a number?   How many strikeout did he have in how many AB's this year?

Just as an aside.  Swing and miss didn't stop them from offering Fabian $3M last year.   I don't know how they feel about Green though.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

We will have to agree to disagree on the number of worthy picks.  I certainly don't see it as a top 2 and the other 3 are way below them.  As to Green, sure, if they've identified something they can fix with the swing and miss, then roll the dice as he does have a very high ceiling.  Maybe it being portrayed as a larger issue than it is, but almost every report you read on Green talks about the swing and miss issue, and frankly that's an issue I personally don't care for.  

It’s safe to say you (nor the rest of us) have any idea how bad the issue is or why it exists.

People talk about how we should give Elias the benefit of the doubt well, this is one where I think you would have to give it to them.

[forphase1]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s safe to say you (nor the rest of us) have any idea how bad the issue is or why it exists.

People talk about how we should give Elias the benefit of the doubt well, this is one where I think you would have to give it to them.

Well sure.  As I said, IF they take him then I hope it's because they have identified something they believe they can fix.  I do give Elias the benefit of the doubt.  But that doesn't mean I don't question taking someone with more question marks versus someone who doesn't need as much fixing.  

[forphase1]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We keep talking about the swing and miss with Green.   Is there a number?   How many strikeout did he have in how many AB's this year?

Just as an aside.  Swing and miss didn't stop them from offering Fabian $3M last year.   I don't know how they feel about Green though.

Fabian was not a 1:1 pick though.  It's one thing to swing and miss (see what I did there!) on a lower pick with issues as the potential pool of players you pass up is of lesser quality. But at 1:1 you have the pick of the litter, and picking someone with those kind of issues is a bit questionable to me.  As to a number, best I was able to find was as a junior 34 Ks in 25 games, 98 PAs and 21Ks in 25 games, 103 PA as a senior.  So roughly 1 K a game against high school pitching, or about a 27% K rate per PA over the 2 years.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, forphase1 said:

Fabian was not a 1:1 pick though.  It's one thing to swing and miss (see what I did there!) on a lower pick with issues as the potential pool of players you pass up is of lesser quality. But at 1:1 you have the pick of the litter, and picking someone with those kind of issues is a bit questionable to me.  As to a number, best I was able to find was as a junior 34 Ks in 25 games, 98 PAs and 21Ks in 25 games, 103 PA as a senior.  So roughly 1 K a game against high school pitching, or about a 27% K rate per PA over the 2 years.  

Two things.   I understand it's different but even with a sandwich pick or 2nd rounder, you don't want to waste $3M on a player who can't hit.   They must have felt Fabian's swing and miss could/would be corrected.   My point is that if they love Green's game and they think his swing and miss is not a big problem, they might go for him.

Secondly, Green obviously showed progress from his junior year to his senior year and progress is more important than the overall numbers.

[forphase1]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Two things.   I understand it's different but even with a sandwich pick or 2nd rounder, you don't want to waste $3M on a player who can't hit.   They must have felt Fabian's swing and miss could/would be corrected.   My point is that if they love Green's game and they think his swing and miss is not a big problem, they might go for him.

Secondly, Green obviously showed progress from his junior year to his senior year and progress is more important than the overall numbers.

Sure, on both points.  But for me the money is 2nd to the potential you pass on.  While we have grown our minors by leaps and bounds over the past few years, we still are weak at the lower levels, and this draft is a HUGE opportunity to keep this good team window open for a long time.  Point being we can't afford to miss on this pick, and I'm afraid that Green is just too much a risk, when there are equal (or close to equal) talented players without the same question marks.  Same reason why I argued against us taking Rocker last year with our first pick, I felt he was a ticking time bomb and too great a risk at that high of a pick.  Completely different situation, but I think Green has too many questions to take him over a Jones, Holliday, Johnson or even Lee.  If our pick was 1:7 or something like that, then I'd be happy to have a Green still be available.  But at 1:1 I want as close to a 'can't miss' as I can get, and with his issues I don't think he's that player.

[RZNJ]

I certainly don't want to miss on this pick but I don't buy into "we can't afford to miss with this pick" type of thinking.     I would agree that Jones is probably the best combination of safe with upside.   My top 3 are Jones, Holliday, and Lee.    I think all three offer the best combination of safe with upside.   I know many will disagree on Lee.

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I certainly don't want to miss on this pick but I don't buy into "we can't afford to miss with this pick" type of thinking.     I would agree that Jones is probably the best combination of safe with upside.   My top 3 are Jones, Holliday, and Lee.    I think all three offer the best combination of safe with upside.   I know many will disagree on Lee.

I don't think you can EVER afford to miss on a 1:1.  This is only our 3rd time in franchise history of getting to chose whatever player we want.  Shouldn't screw it up.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, forphase1 said:

I don't think you can EVER afford to miss on a 1:1.  This is only our 3rd time in franchise history of getting to chose whatever player we want.  Shouldn't screw it up.  

Can't afford to miss, suggests it will change the course of the Franchise over the next 10 years.    I don't buy that.    Getting this pick right is important but it won't sink us if we don't.    It also doesn't guarantee success if we get it right.