Trade Deadline Primer/Thread

[MarCakes21]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, it’s absurd to think a pen full of journeyman are going to be successful long term.  I like Lopez and think we should keep him if the offer isn’t really good but I’m open to trading everyone outside of Bautista.  
 

Tate needs to go imo.

I'm on the fence here, Tate was the "haul" for Britton.  He's still very young, and I know this is a peak year, but do we think he could be a future closer and have more value or this is a one time thing

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'm on the fence here, Tate was the "haul" for Britton.  He's still very young, and I know this is a peak year, but do we think he could be a future closer and have more value or this is a one time thing

Twenty eight is not very young for a professional baseball player.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Twenty eight is not very young for a professional baseball player.

Age is almost irrelevant for pitchers.  Aside from not wanting a 21-year-old to throw 20 complete games.  But I'd rather have a 37-year-old with 11 K/9 than a 25-year-old with 7 K/9.

148 pitchers have appeared in at least 30 games in 2022.  Tate is 120th in K/9.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'm on the fence here, Tate was the "haul" for Britton.  He's still very young, and I know this is a peak year, but do we think he could be a future closer and have more value or this is a one time thing

I personally don’t trust him long term.  I’m thinking his value will never be higher than it is this deadline.

[MarCakes21]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Twenty eight is not very young for a professional baseball player.

Yes, but he's only entering Arb 1.  He's controlled for 3 more years, and if there's decline, you just non tender.

[oriole]

I don’t mind if one or two bullpen guys are traded but I hope they don’t blow it up. It’s been nice having a decent chance to hold a lead.

 

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Yes, but he's only entering Arb 1.  He's controlled for 3 more years, and if there's decline, you just non tender.

So you prefer non tender over selling high? The control adds value and there almost certainly will be some amount of decline.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

So you prefer non tender over selling high? The control adds value and there almost certainly will be some amount of decline.

The best part about non-tendering someone is the season of decline before you non-tender them.

 

[Jammer7]

I can see moving Mancini, an impending FA. I can see moving Lyles, who has a somewhat pricey option. I can see moving Tate and Lopez. I can understand moving Odor, Urias, Santander and/or maybe even Mullins, who might be better to wait until the Winter.

I doubt that Elias trades all of those eight players at the deadline, but perhaps 3-5. I would not want to move Bautista, Perez, Mateo, Rutschman, Hays or Mountcastle.

[ScGO's]

With 3 years left of control, Tate is kind of a wild card.  This is his first full productive season so far.  If he puts up similar numbers the rest of the season his value will increase. If they don't trade him in the offseason and he performs in 2023, he will reach his real peak value at next year's trade deadline.  If he can be tacked on in a trade to get a prospect you want this season, I can understand it, but the bullpen is actually pretty thin in organizational depth if we do start trading guys, so if the offer for Tate ain't great, then its not a bad thing for the organization to go into 2023 with him in the pen.

I do think Lopez is at peak value. He'll be 30 going into next season. He may have 3+ WAR, 30 Saves and a sub 2.00 ERA at the end of the season, so his $1.5 million salary is going to jump.  He's controllable for 2 more seasons.  This is his best season in 7 years of getting a shot on a MLB roster, so the odds aren't necessarily in his favor to repeat this success. Waiver wire pick up turned into valuable trade chip. With Bautista, and Hall ready in AAA, I think now is the time to move Lopez even though the pen depth is thin.  However, I'd like to see Bautista close games and get comfortable with the role before we start the 2023 season

[ScGO's]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I can see moving Mancini, an impending FA. I can see moving Lyles, who has a somewhat pricey option. I can see moving Tate and Lopez. I can understand moving Odor, Urias, Santander and/or maybe even Mullins, who might be better to wait until the Winter.

I doubt that Elias trades all of those eight players at the deadline, but perhaps 3-5. I would not want to move Bautista, Perez, Mateo, Rutschman, Hays or Mountcastle.

I like Lyles, but I'm having trouble imaging a competitor taking on his salary as a negative WAR player right now.  Might as well have him eat some innings the remainder of the season. No one wants Odor. Urias is staying put; he has 4 more years of control and won't reach arbitration until 2024. If Mancini and Santander are moved, they will need Urias bat to help stabilize the line up will the young guys phase in.

My best guess is Mancini, Lopez, and Santander are moved if the price is right.  With Lyles and Odor becoming free agents, trading these 3 now will actually open up some salary for 2023 to bring in a better FA SP?

 

[Hank Scorpio]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I personally don’t trust him long term.  I’m thinking his value will never be higher than it is this deadline.

That, and they've got guys capable of competently replacing him. 

DL Hall may wrap this season up in the bullpen b/c of his innings limit. Vespi has been competent, Bradish, Zimmerman, Harvey (vomit)... there are lots of names to fill innings. 

[osravensfan78]

Any word/idea on who we may be looking at on the Mets or Braves for a Trey return?

[MarCakes21]

33 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So you prefer non tender over selling high? The control adds value and there almost certainly will be some amount of decline.

I'm not asking for the decline, thought expecting some of it.  But if you get ~1-1.5 WAR, which is likely, excess value to our team too through a peaking team period.

[NCRaven]

Most bullpen arms are failed starters and journeymen.